NJ-Quinnipiac: Clinton 54% Sanders 40%
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Author Topic: NJ-Quinnipiac: Clinton 54% Sanders 40%  (Read 3103 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: May 19, 2016, 05:04:35 AM »
Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey, conducted May 10-16:

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2348

Clinton 54%
Sanders 40%
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2016, 05:12:46 AM »
Hmmm, I thought Sanders would be under 40. Maybe this will end up like NY and PA.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2016, 05:20:01 AM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on May 19, 2016, 05:12:46 AM
Hmmm, I thought Sanders would be under 40. Maybe this will end up like NY and PA.

Quinnipiac always overestimates Sanders. A 60-40 result is the most plausible.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2016, 05:24:59 AM »
It'll probably be similar to NY, or maybe 59-41.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2016, 07:38:48 AM »
Quinnipiac has been utter garbarge this primary cycle, statistically giving some of the worst polls. They have underestimated Hillary at every turn, its no surprise there doing it in one of her strongest states.
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Beet
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM »
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2016, 09:21:13 AM »
Quote from: Beet on May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

He won't. It's not an 80+ percent white state.
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Angrie
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2016, 11:20:53 AM »
Quote from: Bitch is the New Birkenstock on May 19, 2016, 09:21:13 AM
Quote from: Beet on May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

He won't. It's not an 80+ percent white state.

But Bernie does somewhat better with northern minority voters than with southern ones. Of course he will still lose, but it will be similar to PA and NY.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2016, 11:24:01 AM »
Quote from: Angrie on May 19, 2016, 11:20:53 AM
Quote from: Bitch is the New Birkenstock on May 19, 2016, 09:21:13 AM
Quote from: Beet on May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

He won't. It's not an 80+ percent white state.

But Bernie does somewhat better with northern minority voters than with southern ones. Of course he will still lose, but it will be similar to PA and NY.

With New Jersey it's not only a matter of minorities. The state is essentially a big suburb and affluent white suburbanites are another group where he does terribly.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2016, 07:47:47 PM »
Quote from: Beet on May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

Trailing by 14 from a favorable pollster is not really a sign he could win it. It would make no difference in the delegate math anyway.

NJ isn't entirely closed, so it's possible he does slightly better than in NY. He could also do slightly worse since it's even worse for him demographically.
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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2016, 08:55:53 AM »
Quote from: Beet on May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

Why on Earth would this poll indicate to you that Sanders will win New Jersey?
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2016, 09:46:49 AM »
Quote from: White Light on May 22, 2016, 08:55:53 AM
Quote from: Beet on May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

Why on Earth would this poll indicate to you that Sanders will win New Jersey?
It's Beet.
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BRTD
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2016, 01:11:57 PM »
Quote from: morgieb on May 22, 2016, 09:46:49 AM
Quote from: White Light on May 22, 2016, 08:55:53 AM
Quote from: Beet on May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

Why on Earth would this poll indicate to you that Sanders will win New Jersey?
It's Beet.

Even for him it's a pretty bizarre reaction. It'd be like if a poll for the general election came out showing Hillary leading by 14 points against Trump and his response was "Wow. If Trump somehow wins New Jersey this is going to be a blowout."
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2016, 05:06:54 PM »
Quote from: White Light on May 22, 2016, 01:11:57 PM
Quote from: morgieb on May 22, 2016, 09:46:49 AM
Quote from: White Light on May 22, 2016, 08:55:53 AM
Quote from: Beet on May 19, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Wow. If Sanders somehow wins New Jersey this election will be a mess.

Why on Earth would this poll indicate to you that Sanders will win New Jersey?
It's Beet.

Even for him it's a pretty bizarre reaction.

Not particularly. You must not have seen his predictions back in March. Tongue

He had him tying in NY, winning PA/CA by 20, winning NJ by double digits, winning NM/PR by like 30 points...
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2016, 07:44:43 PM »
New Poll: New Jersey President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-05-16

Summary:
Clinton:
54%
Sanders:
40%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2016, 01:18:05 AM »
Quinn has been awful with Hillary this primary. Only up 14 in NJ when she won by double the amount.

I wonder if their GE polls, like the +7 in CT, are just as off?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2016, 01:40:00 AM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on June 08, 2016, 01:18:05 AM
Quinn has been awful with Hillary this primary. Only up 14 in NJ when she won by double the amount.

I wonder if their GE polls, like the +7 in CT, are just as off?

To be fair, they nailed Sanders' number.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2016, 01:57:21 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 08, 2016, 01:40:00 AM
Quote from: psychprofessor on June 08, 2016, 01:18:05 AM
Quinn has been awful with Hillary this primary. Only up 14 in NJ when she won by double the amount.

I wonder if their GE polls, like the +7 in CT, are just as off?

To be fair, they nailed Sanders' number.

Not really, Hillary won 63-37. Something strange is occurring with Quinn and their underestimation of Hillary.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2016, 02:11:54 AM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on June 08, 2016, 01:57:21 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 08, 2016, 01:40:00 AM
Quote from: psychprofessor on June 08, 2016, 01:18:05 AM
Quinn has been awful with Hillary this primary. Only up 14 in NJ when she won by double the amount.

I wonder if their GE polls, like the +7 in CT, are just as off?

To be fair, they nailed Sanders' number.

Not really, Hillary won 63-37. Something strange is occurring with Quinn and their underestimation of Hillary.

This is why I've been ignoring QU since this season started. Their modelling about the electorate has been RUBBISH.
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