New Jersey goes Republican?

[Gabagool102]

Yes, I know many will laugh at me. I'm kinda new here, but I think if Trump plays his cards right he could win the state of New Jersey. It was actually considered a toss up state in '04, so I don't see why it can't be a toss up state this election. Plus the latest quinnipiac poll, shows Clinton only up 7, and thats REALLY bad for her. since Obama carried the state by 18 points.

[RFayette]

No.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

ANYTHING could happen.  Up is down.  Black is white.  The Cubs are 7 1/2 games ahead in first place.

Anyone who says "Trump/Clinton can can't possibly win X" is being foolish.  Here are your states out of play:

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

ANYTHING could happen.  Up is down.  Black is white.  The Cubs are 7 1/2 games ahead in first place.

Anyone who says "Trump/Clinton can can't possibly win X" is being foolish.  Here are your states out of play:

I'll be more than happy to bump this after the election day.

[Gass3268]

No.

[Ljube]

No.

[AmericanNation]

Trump will likely invest 'HUGE' in Pennsylvania (and probably win)... The Philly media market spills into New Jersey... It will be interesting what effect that has.    

[Ljube]

Trump will likely invest 'HUGE' in Pennsylvania (and probably win)... The Philly media market spills into New Jersey... It will be interesting what effect that has.    

Yes, Trump will invest huge in PA, OH and FL and ignore all the rest.
Don't believe his 15 swing states strategy - it's coming straignht from the Art of the Deal.

[ag]

Jersey, actually, is among the states I am more sanguine about. The realignment is going to happen on the nativism/diversity axis, and Jersey is reasonably diverse, so that, unless Dems are caught napping, they should get a good turnout in the minority/immigrant/urban parts of the state, and that should be enough to hold it. But, yeah, there will be very ugly parts of the state, and it cannot be taken for granted.

[dax00]

I agree with Beef.

I'm just waiting for one of the candidates to do a Will Ferrell and "inadvertently" punch a baby on live TV... and have their numbers go up as a result.

[IceAgeComing]

The Cubs are 7 1/2 games ahead in first place.

this isn't the best sporting analogy that you could have used; with the team that the Cubs have they should be winning!  Leicester City winning the premier league however...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The thing about the northeast is Trump lacks the GOP's traditional weaknesses, and Trump's negatives are not that bad there.

The thing about the southeast is evangelicals hate Trump, setting up the potential for a Black Belt / Bible Belt coalition to elect Hillary.

The thing about the Midwest is it's a confluence of Rust Belt anger and distaste for everything Trump stands for.

The thing about the West is Hillary is the she-devil, but Trump's an eminent-domain-loving anti-libertarian.

It's a totally new ballgame.  Don't put much stock into the polls right now.  There's too much noise and not enough real information.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Cubs are 7 1/2 games ahead in first place.

this isn't the best sporting analogy that you could have used; with the team that the Cubs have they should be winning!  Leicester City winning the premier league however...

Murica.

Actually, I posed the question on Facebook back in December, of which was more likely to happen:
1. Trump wins the GOP nomination
2. Leicester City wins the Premier League

We all had a great laugh at the preposterousness of both.  My Liverpool supporter friends were like, "NO WAY the Foxes even finish top 4, and LFC is going to the Champions League! YNWA!!!!!"

LOL.

[VPH]

Absolutely not.

[psychprofessor]

NJ is too diverse - AA and Hispanics and educated whites will not go for Trump. Not happening.

[This account no longer in use.]

Only in a landslide.

[AmericanNation]

Trump will likely invest 'HUGE' in Pennsylvania (and probably win)... The Philly media market spills into New Jersey... It will be interesting what effect that has.    

Yes, Trump will invest huge in PA, OH and FL and ignore all the rest.
Don't believe his 15 swing states strategy - it's coming straignht from the Art of the Deal.

I think those are the top 3 for sure, but he needs one more to win... or are you assuming he gets NC if he gets those?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Yes, the Cubs (and White Sox) are in first place, but that doesn't mean Trump can win New Jersey.

[Rick Grimes]

i agree i think NJ is a swing state this time. trump could win it with a coalition of reagan democrats & minorities like christie did it was close in 2004 aswell.  there will be ALOT of trump/obama voters in NJ angry at NY liberalism (look at how chris won).

[Sir Mohamed]

Stop.

[john cage bubblegum]

If ever a Republican was going to win NJ in a reasonably close election, it would be 2004, and Bush still lost it by 7 points.

Right now the non-white coalition of voters in NJ is simply too much for a Republican presidential candidate to overcome in a Northern state, where the white vote is competitive.  A Democrat is never going to get 20-25% of the white vote in NJ, which is how Republicans overcome these minority coalitions in the South. 

I suppose it could happen in a 8-10 point Trump blowout where Trumps makes inroads with Latinos, but that just isn't happening.

[beaver2.0]

He conceivably could, but the chance is infinitesimal.  I say Clinton carries it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If ever a Republican was going to win NJ in a reasonably close election, it would be 2004, and Bush still lost it by 7 points.

Right now the non-white coalition of voters in NJ is simply too much for a Republican presidential candidate to overcome in a Northern state, where the white vote is competitive.  A Democrat is never going to get 20-25% of the white vote in NJ, which is how Republicans overcome these minority coalitions in the South. 

I suppose it could happen in a 8-10 point Trump blowout where Trumps makes inroads with Latinos, but that just isn't happening.

You're thinking of Trump like he's a Republican.  You're thinking of this like it's an ordinary campaign, where Hillary and the Democrats can target ads at minorities about the terrible things Trump has said and get them to come out and vote against him.  This won't work against Trump.  Trump's campaign is national, it's using the media to his advantage, and it's a totally different thing.  Do not underestimate the way the Trump campaign can manipulate the media and the voting public.

Nothing is off the table.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A aviation tragedy happens, a passenger flight goes down in the Mediterranean, and what is the media talking about?  Donald Trump's tweet about it.  His reprehensible hot take, calling it a terrorist attack on the basis of zero evidence.

The man is a genius, or rather the men running this campaign are.  Everyone is talking about Trump, pumping their fists in the air.  "This guy means action.  He's gonna tell it like it is, and do something!"

And not a single dollar was spent on advertising.  And the publicity is national, not targeted at battleground states, not targeted at demographic groups.  Everyone, everywhere, all Trump, all the time.  Thank you, media.

This is why New Jersey is in play.

[john cage bubblegum]

If ever a Republican was going to win NJ in a reasonably close election, it would be 2004, and Bush still lost it by 7 points.

Right now the non-white coalition of voters in NJ is simply too much for a Republican presidential candidate to overcome in a Northern state, where the white vote is competitive.  A Democrat is never going to get 20-25% of the white vote in NJ, which is how Republicans overcome these minority coalitions in the South. 

I suppose it could happen in a 8-10 point Trump blowout where Trumps makes inroads with Latinos, but that just isn't happening.

You're thinking of Trump like he's a Republican.  You're thinking of this like it's an ordinary campaign, where Hillary and the Democrats can target ads at minorities about the terrible things Trump has said and get them to come out and vote against him.  This won't work against Trump.  Trump's campaign is national, it's using the media to his advantage, and it's a totally different thing.  Do not underestimate the way the Trump campaign can manipulate the media and the voting public.

Nothing is off the table.

Trump is certainly an unconventional Republican candidate, but as we can see with overtures he's been making lately, ultimately he is going to represent the Republican Party.  And we're now seeing that in national polls where Republicans have consolidated.

I think Latino voters will be extra motivated to vote against Trump.  But even if they aren't, even if they turnout and vote at normal rates for Hillary, it's more than enough to keep NJ blue.  

That isn't to say that Trump can't win the overall election; he most certainly can.  It's just to say that he can't win NJ except in a landslide.