2018 California Gubernatorial Election Megathread

[smoltchanov]

Well, IMHO, Faulconer CAN beat any posssible Democratic candidate, but that doesn't mean he WILL surely beat them. A race with Fasulconer in it would be close and unpredictable until the end... (again - IMHO). Whether such race materializes - we will see..

[IceSpear]

Kevin Faulconer would destroy everyone in this race. Chiang or Newsom are both weak candidates who will be annihilated by him.

lol

In case you haven't noticed, the Republican brand in California is dirt. Their star recruits in a massive Republican wave both lost by double digits, and the demographics have only gotten uglier for them since then.

[smoltchanov]

Kevin Faulconer would destroy everyone in this race. Chiang or Newsom are both weak candidates who will be annihilated by him.

lol

In case you haven't noticed, the Republican brand in California is dirt. Their star recruits in a massive Republican wave both lost by double digits, and the demographics have only gotten uglier for them since then.

Bullsh**t. Swearingen and Peterson were far from the best possible recruits for Repiblicans in 2014 and they lost by 7-8% in November. Kamala Harris won in 2010 by 1% and only after prolonged count. It always makes me laugh how confident Democrats are BEFORE  elections (especially - midterms) and which weak "explanations" they present after being thoroughly drubbed in them. I remember how my Democratic friends tried to convince me that in no way Democrats can lose governorships of Maryland and Massachusetts. I had good last laugh)))))

[IceSpear]

Kevin Faulconer would destroy everyone in this race. Chiang or Newsom are both weak candidates who will be annihilated by him.

lol

In case you haven't noticed, the Republican brand in California is dirt. Their star recruits in a massive Republican wave both lost by double digits, and the demographics have only gotten uglier for them since then.

Bullsh**t. Swearingen and Peterson were far from the best possible recruits for Repiblicans in 2014 and they lost by 7-8% in November. Kamala Harris won in 2010 by 1% and only after prolonged count. It always makes me laugh how confident Democrats are BEFORE  elections (especially - midterms) and which weak "explanations" they present after being thoroughly drubbed in them. I remember how my Democratic friends tried to convince me that in no way Democrats can lose governorships of Maryland and Massachusetts. I had good last laugh)))))

I was clearly referring to 2010. Downballot races can obviously get quirky, though even that is rapidly changing as the country gets more polarized.

Republicans winning a governor's seat in Massachusetts was not exactly a huge surprise. Touche on Maryland though.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO, polarization of the country is one of the biggest, and,potentially, most dangerous problems of US. If it will continue for some more decades - there will be no single country with present name, but a lot of debris..

[Kingpoleon]

Kevin Faulconer would destroy everyone in this race. Chiang or Newsom are both weak candidates who will be annihilated by him.

lol

In case you haven't noticed, the Republican brand in California is dirt. Their star recruits in a massive Republican wave both lost by double digits, and the demographics have only gotten uglier for them since then.

Their star recruits faced down JERRY BROWN, of California Uber Alles. Please don't act like the fact that Jerry Brown has amazingly high crossover appeal and the two Senators have been in office 20+ years has nothing to do with their strong performance.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Maybe a general election match between him and Newsom will help draw attention to the discriminatory and unconstitutional nature of top two primaries.

If voters choose two members of the same party for the top two there is nothing unconstitutional about it. It was a moderate Republican who pushed the system because he thought it would make it easier for moderate Republicans to make the general election.

But by doing that, it then disenfranchises political minorities who aren't members of that party.

[smoltchanov]

Maybe a general election match between him and Newsom will help draw attention to the discriminatory and unconstitutional nature of top two primaries.

If voters choose two members of the same party for the top two there is nothing unconstitutional about it. It was a moderate Republican who pushed the system because he thought it would make it easier for moderate Republicans to make the general election.

But by doing that, it then disenfranchises political minorities who aren't members of that party.

Well, Louisiana made it for decades (and still does), and nobody really complains. After all - a very big percentage of American people are permanently disenfranchised: Indies and small parties supporters. To be politically relevant they are forced to choose "the lesser of two evils" from candidates of two big parties. Or, essentially, waste their vote.

[Miles]

Faulconer not running in 2018, assuming he's reelected mayor.

[Kingpoleon]

Smart move. He'll run in 2022 if it's not Newsom or Clinton/Newsom is really unpopular then.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Faulconer not running in 2018, assuming he's reelected mayor.

I'll edit the title to make it a general 2018 CA-Gov megathread.

[JMT]

Faulconer not running in 2018, assuming he's reelected mayor.

Republicans can kiss goodbye to any chance they had at winning the Governor's race, then... Unless Carly Fiorina comes in and saves the day, just like she did for the Cruz campaign!! (That's a joke).

[IceSpear]

Faulconer not running in 2018, assuming he's reelected mayor.

I guess he didn't realize he was a shoo in.

[Kingpoleon]

Are Abel Maldonaldo or Steve Poizner considering running? If they don't, that leaves Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearingen as the only other major Republican who could run.

[Maxwell]

Abel Maldonado probably couldn't win - he got eviscerated by Newsom in 2010, did poorly in a congressional race in 2012, and ran for Governor in 2014 but didn't stay in to cross the finish line.

[smoltchanov]

Agree. Without Faulconer it's, probably, Swearingen.. But - she is more conservative on social issues, and this is a substantial minus: i can (as i said) imagine republican being governor of California, but i can't do the same for anti-choice Republican for example...

[Sir Mohamed]

Yep, I think Faulconer is the only Republican who could win. Somewhere I heard that Kevin McCarthy might jump in, but he would lose badly. With this horrible primary system, we could end up with a Newsom-Chaing race in November.

[Bojack Horseman]

Chiang for Governor! F*** Newsom!

[Kingpoleon]

Agree. Without Faulconer it's, probably, Swearingen.. But - she is more conservative on social issues, and this is a substantial minus: i can (as i said) imagine republican being governor of California, but i can't do the same for anti-choice Republican for example...

Darrell Issa might run.

That said, I think James Hahn might want the Attorney General position when/if Harris leaves. Other statewide offices up in 2018 include:

Lieutenant Governor: D: Todd Gloria, R: Steve Poizner
Secretary of State: D: Alex Padilla(Incumbent), R: Abel Maldonado, Dan Logue
State Controller: D: Betty Yee(Incumbent), R: Tony Strickland, David Evans
Attorney General: D: James Hahn, Carmen Trutanich, Ron Galperin R: Stephen Cooley, Anthony Adams
Treasurer: R: Meg Whitman, Robert Dutton D: José Hernandez, Jay Chen, Laura Richardson
Insurance Commissioner: D: Lee Rogers, Hector De La Torre, Joe Dunn R: Michael Villines, Elizabeth Emken

[smoltchanov]

Agree. Without Faulconer it's, probably, Swearingen.. But - she is more conservative on social issues, and this is a substantial minus: i can (as i said) imagine republican being governor of California, but i can't do the same for anti-choice Republican for example...

Darrell Issa might run.

That said, I think James Hahn might want the Attorney General position when/if Harris leaves. Other statewide offices up in 2018 include:

Lieutenant Governor: D: Todd Gloria, R: Steve Poizner
Secretary of State: D: Alex Padilla(Incumbent), R: Abel Maldonado, Dan Logue
State Controller: D: Betty Yee(Incumbent), R: Tony Strickland, David Evans
Attorney General: D: James Hahn, Carmen Trutanich, Ron Galperin R: Stephen Cooley, Anthony Adams
Treasurer: R: Meg Whitman, Robert Dutton D: José Hernandez, Jay Chen, Laura Richardson
Insurance Commissioner: D: Lee Rogers, Hector De La Torre, Joe Dunn R: Michael Villines, Elizabeth Emken

Well, i always try not to be "one party hack", and thus - tried to find Republican candidates i could theoretically support in this list.  Cooley - sure, Maldonado - may be.. And that, probably, all. Surely - not Issa..

[Kingpoleon]

Oh well.

Meg Whitman's pro-choice, IIRC. As for Representatives who are in the Main Street Partnership, I think Jeff Denham, Mimi Walters, or David Valadao would be interested.

Could you explain what's wron with Abel Maldonado or Steve Poizner?

[smoltchanov]

Oh well.

Meg Whitman's pro-choice, IIRC. As for Representatives who are in the Main Street Partnership, I think Jeff Denham, Mimi Walters, or David Valadao would be interested.

Could you explain what's wron with Abel Maldonado or Steve Poizner?

Nothing with Maldonado, he simply doesn't especially impress me as a strong candidate. Poizner moved to the right in his latest statewide campaign compared with his first race for Assembly (when i was for him..)

[Maxwell]

Abel Maldonado couldn't beat Gavin Newsom as the incumbent, what makes you think he'd beat Newsom as a challenger?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Abel Maldonado couldn't beat Gavin Newsom as the incumbent, what makes you think he'd beat Newsom as a challenger?

Agreed. Faulconer stands a much easier chance of being elected to statewide office than Maldonado, who most voters probably didn't realize was already a statewide officeholder

[Sir Mohamed]

I guess 2018 will be Newsom vs. Chiang in November thanks to our horrible jungle primary system.