FL- Florida Chamber of Commerce: Clinton +2

[Fargobison]

Clinton 45
Trump 43

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2016/05/8599681/florida-poll-clinton-narrowly-leads-trump-neither-well-liked

[Holmes]

I'll take it at this stage.

[pbrower2a]

And this comes from the sort of entity from which I would expect a poll to favor the GOP.

[Holmes]

And this comes from the sort of entity from which I would expect a poll to favor the GOP.

Probably, but it's best to just take it for what it is. It's just one poll from one state five and a half months out.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

She's doing better than Mittens who led FL by 6 points this time in 2012.

[Ljube]

LoL! If the NeverTrump Chamber of Commerce gives you Clinton +2, then it's really something like Trump +5.

[Angrie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Only 21% favorables for Trump among Florida Hispanics, who are the most Republican of Hispanics in any state.......

[Ljube]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Only 21% favorables for Trump among Florida Hispanics, who are the most Republican of Hispanics in any state.......

They haven't come home yet. Most of them are Establishment type Republicans and have been Rubio's base and part of the NeverTrump movement, so it will take some time before they accept Trump.

[Angrie]

They haven't come home yet. Most of them are Establishment type Republicans and have been Rubio's base and part of the NeverTrump movement, so it will take some time before they accept Trump.

Florida Hispanics started coming home to the Democratic party in 2008 and especially 2012. Between Obama's opening to Cuba and Trump's rhetoric, that will only continue in 2016...

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Only 21% favorables for Trump among Florida Hispanics, who are the most Republican of Hispanics in any state.......

The Cuban-Americans (and they are now largely born in America, as Castro took over nearly 60 years ago) who fled Castro in the '50s and '60s may be among the most politically-conservative Hispanics. The later waves of Hispanics (the Mariel Boat Lift) are much less conservative politically. They lost nothing in Cuba. Florida has many other Hispanics, too, and those on the whole would be like non-Cuban Hispanics elsewhere in America in political orientation.

Even the descendants of first-wave refugees from Castro are much more assimilated, and they have concerns other than hatred for Fidel Castro.

 

[Virginiá]

They haven't come home yet. Most of them are Establishment type Republicans and have been Rubio's base and part of the NeverTrump movement, so it will take some time before they accept Trump.

Florida Hispanics started coming home to the Democratic party in 2008 and especially 2012. Between Obama's opening to Cuba and Trump's rhetoric, that will only continue in 2016...

It looks like Trump may end up accelerating (or flat out completing) the realignment of Floridian Hispanics to the Democratic party that started in 2008, as you said:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/09/democratic-edge-in-hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/

The vast majority of new Democratic party members in FL over the past decade has been Hispanic voters, and you can see FL Hispanics abandoning the Republican party downballot straight up to 2014, where Scott only got 38% of Hispanics, vs something like 50% in 2010.

I wonder if Republicans understand just what is going on in Florida. The Florida younger GenX/Millennial generation(s) has been extremely Democratic and you can see them overtaking the 30 - 45 age group since 2004. Republicans better have an ace up their sleeve, because FL is drifting away from them pretty fast at this point. At this moment, the only age group in FL that is heavily Republican is 65+, and in 10 years, they will be replaced by voters that are about evenly split, with the 18 - 45 group being significantly more Democratic.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I'd argue Trump is more likely to carry FL than even OH despite what current polls say. FL was Trump's best swing state in late 2015/early 2016 by far, he even got 47%-49% in some polls.

[Dereich]

They haven't come home yet. Most of them are Establishment type Republicans and have been Rubio's base and part of the NeverTrump movement, so it will take some time before they accept Trump.

Florida Hispanics started coming home to the Democratic party in 2008 and especially 2012. Between Obama's opening to Cuba and Trump's rhetoric, that will only continue in 2016...

It looks like Trump may end up accelerating (or flat out completing) the realignment of Floridian Hispanics to the Democratic party that started in 2008, as you said:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/09/democratic-edge-in-hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/

The vast majority of new Democratic party members in FL over the past decade has been Hispanic voters, and you can see FL Hispanics abandoning the Republican party downballot straight up to 2014, where Scott only got 38% of Hispanics, vs something like 50% in 2010.

I wonder if Republicans understand just what is going on in Florida. The Florida younger GenX/Millennial generation(s) has been extremely Democratic and you can see them overtaking the 30 - 45 age group since 2004. Republicans better have an ace up their sleeve, because FL is drifting away from them pretty fast at this point. At this moment, the only age group in FL that is heavily Republican is 65+, and in 10 years, they will be replaced by voters that are about evenly split, with the 18 - 45 group being significantly more Democratic.

Don't put much faith in the "next generation" being the Democratic salvation in Florida. Since the 40s a large majority of Floridians have been born out of state and moved here; right now only 36% of Floridians were born in Florida and I expect that number to stay low in the future. How the younger generation being born here votes matters much less than the ideological make-up of the people who move here. Throwing those people into the equation makes it much more difficult to say there's some sort of demographic destiny for us.

[Angrie]

Don't put much faith in the "next generation" being the Democratic salvation in Florida. Since the 40s a large majority of Floridians have been born out of state and moved here; right now only 36% of Floridians were born in Florida and I expect that number to stay low in the future. How the younger generation being born here votes matters much less than the ideological make-up of the people who move here. Throwing those people into the equation makes it much more difficult to say there's some sort of demographic destiny for us.

But the people who move to Florida, tending to be old, have many fewer kids in Florida than do people who do not live in Florida. For a while, the olds who move to Florida dominate the electorate, because they are old and turn out to vote at higher rates. But eventually the former youngs (tending to be minorities) grow older and begin to vote at higher rates as well. That's basically what is happening now. It is not just a matter of the younger generation. It is just as much a matter of the fact that, increasingly, the older generation (and middle aged generation) is less monolithically made up of old whites who moved to Florida (and old Cubans who fled to Florida) and are inclined to vote Republican.

For example, it's not just that the new 18-29s are more heavily non-white than ever, and that non-whites are increasingly uniformly hostile to Republicans. It's also that the 18-29s who voted for Obama starting in 2008 are now 8 years older, and will vote at proportionally higher rates.

[Ljube]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

[Dr. Arch]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

Implying anyone who has a different worldview and, thus, political view from you is unwise? Seriously, get over yourself.

[bumpercrop]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

That's not remotely true and there is no evidence to support that claim.

[Ljube]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

Implying anyone who has a different worldview and, thus, political view from you is unwise? Seriously, get over yourself.

Don't worry. You'll get wiser when you get older too. It's just a natural process.

[Ljube]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

That's not remotely true and there is no evidence to support that claim.

What more evidence do you need than the percentage of olds voting Pub?

[bumpercrop]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

That's not remotely true and there is no evidence to support that claim.

What more evidence do you need than the percentage of olds voting Pub?

The current generation 65+ (Silent Generation) grew up mostly during the Eisenhower era and they are more Republican then their older counterparts (who are rapidly dying off) who grew up in the FDR era.

Case in point, Gore won the 65+ demo in 2000 and it has been shifting Republican as the Greatest Generation dies off.

[Virginiá]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

That's not remotely true and there is no evidence to support that claim.

What more evidence do you need than the percentage of olds voting Pub?

The current generation 65+ (Silent Generation) grew up mostly during the Eisenhower era and they are more Republican then their older counterparts (who are rapidly dying off) who grew up in the FDR era.

Case in point, Gore won the 65+ demo in 2000 and it has been shifting Republican as the Greatest Generation dies off.

Exactly. There is plenty of research proving that "conservative as they age" argument is complete bs. People just think that because older people are conservative right now, they must always have been, when that is not true at all. Old people used to be more Democratic decades ago. In some states they are still strongly Democratic. The parts of the boomer/genx generations that grew up under Ford/Carter/Reagan/Bush1 will be aging into the 65+ bracket soon and that will make it more solidly Republican, but once they die off, old people will once again be strongly Democratic.

Ljube: http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-1-how-generations-have-changed/

[Alcon]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

That's not remotely true and there is no evidence to support that claim.

What more evidence do you need than the percentage of olds voting Pub?

The current generation 65+ (Silent Generation) grew up mostly during the Eisenhower era and they are more Republican then their older counterparts (who are rapidly dying off) who grew up in the FDR era.

Case in point, Gore won the 65+ demo in 2000 and it has been shifting Republican as the Greatest Generation dies off.

That doesn't reject the premise.  If the premise is true, a given cohort (like the Greatest Generation) will become more Republican as they age, more often than not.  That doesn't necessarily mean they will be more Republican than all younger cohorts.  I would have to refresh my memory on the evidence, but I believe it's true that cohorts usually get more Republican as they age (at least in recent history).

[Alcon]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

That's not remotely true and there is no evidence to support that claim.

What more evidence do you need than the percentage of olds voting Pub?

The current generation 65+ (Silent Generation) grew up mostly during the Eisenhower era and they are more Republican then their older counterparts (who are rapidly dying off) who grew up in the FDR era.

Case in point, Gore won the 65+ demo in 2000 and it has been shifting Republican as the Greatest Generation dies off.

Exactly. There is plenty of research proving that "conservative as they age" argument is complete bs. People just think that because older people are conservative right now, they must always have been, when that is not true at all. Old people used to be more Democratic decades ago. In some states they are still strongly Democratic. The parts of the boomer/genx generations that grew up under Ford/Carter/Reagan/Bush1 will be aging into the 65+ bracket soon and that will make it more solidly Republican, but once they die off, old people will once again be strongly Democratic.

Ljube: http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-1-how-generations-have-changed/

You're making the same small error -- just because a cohort is older and more Democratic than another cohort, doesn't mean that cohort hasn't become more Republican as they've aged.  Your link kind of gets at addressing this, by showing how cohorts have voted versus the national average over time.  Unfortunately, the only evidence it shows is '94-'10, which only gives us a 16-year span.  That's not much help in ascertaining how people change between being young and being old.  Obviously, an 18-year-old in 2004 is only 34 now.

I'll try to see if I have time to dig up better information soon (if I can find it again).

[Virginiá]

You're making the same small error -- just because a cohort is older and more Democratic than another cohort, doesn't mean that cohort hasn't become more Republican as they've aged.  Your link kind of gets at addressing this, by showing how cohorts have voted versus the national average over time.  Unfortunately, the only evidence it shows is '94-'10, which only gives us a 16-year span.  That's not much help in ascertaining how people change between being young and being old.  Obviously, an 18-year-old in 2004 is only 34 now.

I'll try to see if I have time to dig up better information soon (if I can find it again).

Some could have become more Republican while some previous Republicans became more Democratic. It goes both ways. Either way, as those charts show, the Greatest Generation seniors were still voting heavily Democratic, so if some of those voters did trend Republican, it wasn't many.

So while you can argue that small point, the evidence (imo) overwhelmingly suggests that voting patterns are more or less ingrained since young adult hood. There are more studies about this.

https://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/learning.pdf

[Virginiá]

You're making the same small error -- just because a cohort is older and more Democratic than another cohort, doesn't mean that cohort hasn't become more Republican as they've aged.  Your link kind of gets at addressing this, by showing how cohorts have voted versus the national average over time.  Unfortunately, the only evidence it shows is '94-'10, which only gives us a 16-year span.  That's not much help in ascertaining how people change between being young and being old.  Obviously, an 18-year-old in 2004 is only 34 now.

I'll try to see if I have time to dig up better information soon (if I can find it again).

There are other studies showing that party loyalty/voting patterns are ingrained at a young age: https://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/learning.pdf

The theory is that generally after young adulthood, it takes significant events to change voting patterns for a lot of people. Obviously not all, but this is why generational voting patterns are so consistent. Young adults who grew up under influential presidents tend to stick with that party for the rest of their life.

So while you can suggest that some may turn more conservative or Republican, that applies both ways, some existing Republicans could have trended more Democratic. It isn't a one way street. Either way, the vast majority of data on this suggests that people keep their party loyalties barring something like a depression under that party's president. By this "conservative as you age" theory, all those Greatest Generation voters should be solid Republicans by now. They aren't. That theory holds no water and very little data shows anything of the sort.