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  WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney
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Author Topic: WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney  (Read 2308 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2016, 12:32:22 am »

Still you must admit it is concerning for the left that Hillary has gone from putting Louisiana and West Virginia in play to now at serious risk to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania to Donald effing Trump
I don't know anyone who seriously thought that Louisiana and West Virginia would be in play.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #26 on: May 22, 2016, 12:34:53 am »

Perhaps Trump is the GOP's best hope at retaking the WH. A good short term play, but terrible long term. He's the only one willing to say and do the things that can take down Hillary Clinton and I think he may be successful. Look, Trump lies. He blatantly lies on national TV and no on calls him out on it. Meanwhile Clinton can't evolve on a position without being called some misogynistic name. Unfortunately, this man could be President.
It's a trade-off, Nobody would care who she was if she were male
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semocrat08
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« Reply #27 on: May 22, 2016, 12:36:56 am »


Are you really that anti-Clinton that you're cheering on Trump?

Like most of the BernieOrBust numbskulls, jfern and his other progressive masqueraders would vote for a serial murderer/rapist/pedophile over Hillary.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #28 on: May 22, 2016, 12:37:58 am »

Clinton - 37%
Trump - 35%
Romney - 22%

I'd be curious to see what the numbers would be if they polled this matchup in Utah and Idaho.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #29 on: May 22, 2016, 12:38:23 am »

Why are people lighting their hair on fire over polls in May? If we go by polls in May, Jimmy Carter was coasting to a landslide in 1976 and relatively easy reelection in 1980. Obviously, everyone in May 1988 knew Michael Dukakis was heading towards a landslide victory after eight years of Republican rule. And, of course, GWHB and Ross Perot were locked in a tight battle with little known Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton in third place.

Let's step back and look at the facts here. Polling is really all over the place right now. The Republican primaries are over and Republicans are largely rallying to their nominee. The Democratic primary is still being heavily contested. I can't say I like polls like these, but I'm not worried right now. The point at which I'll be very concerned with polling like this is after Labor Day.

Democrats/lefties tend to be lame debbie downers and constantly think the sky is falling. I still remember in October 2008 when the lefty blogosphere was in full scale panic mode about a few polls showing Obama up "only" 5-6 points in PA...when most showed him up double digits. lol

Then again, maybe if people weren't dumb enough to believe Hillary was a lock, this wouldn't be that shocking to them. Seriously, it should not be surprising to anyone that the country could possibly vote for Trump when 46% of them voted for Sarah Palin to be an old man's heartbeat away from the presidency. Interestingly, Trump is actually at 46% in this poll.
Still you must admit it is concerning for the left that Hillary has gone from putting Louisiana and West Virginia in play to now at serious risk to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania to Donald effing Trump

Yeah, polls change. In fact, they've gone back and forth multiple times already. In 2013-2014 she was leading by double digits. Then in fall 2015 it was a dead heat. Then she opened up a double digit lead again as Trump got more attacks from his competitors and the media. Now it's a dead heat again as he gets a post nomination bump. None of this is particularly surprising. She'll likely pull ahead after she clinches the nomination. He'll probably pull ahead after the RNC bounce, only to be reversed by the DNC bounce. Only when that recedes will we see the true state of the race.

And no, I'm not being a hypocrite either. If you want to go back in my posting history, I was predicting a ~5 point win for her even when she was beating everyone by 20+ points. That's still my prediction. I've not wavered at all, even with all the ups and downs over the past years. Only in September when we start to get a true picture of the race will I consider a revision.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2016, 12:50:59 am »

She's only +2 with Romney pulling 22%? That's a bit hard to believe.

It'd be interesting to see the numbers in a Clinton/Trump/Romney/Sanders race.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2016, 12:52:46 am »
« Edited: May 22, 2016, 12:55:56 am by Ronnie »

Clinton - 37%
Trump - 35%
Romney - 22%

I'd be curious to see what the numbers would be if they polled this matchup in Utah and Idaho.

I imagine Romney would be leading decisively in both of those states.  Though I wonder if he'd be leading elsewhere.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2016, 12:56:06 am »

She's only +2 with Romney pulling 22%? That's a bit hard to believe.

It'd be interesting to see the numbers in a Clinton/Trump/Romney/Sanders race.

Oh, I didn't even notice those Romney numbers. What total garbage. As if two Republicans would combine for nearly 60% of the vote?
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2016, 01:15:30 am »

WP/ABC Poll (5/16-5/19, 829 RV)

Realistic Convertion(Realistic Party Affiliation %)
TRUMP beat Hillary with +10% margins.

1. WP/ABC Poll (5/16-5/19) + Realistic Demographics

1) WP/ABC Poll (5/16-5/19, 829 RV)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html

White: TRUMP 57% | Hillary 33%, Non White: TRUMP 21% | Hillary 69%
Dem: TRUMP 11% | Hillary 86%, Rep: TRUMP 85% | Hillary 8%
Ind: TRUMP got 13% more than Hillary.


2) WP/ABC Poll (5/16-5/19, 829 RV) + Realistic Party Affiliation
Party Affiliation: Dem 38% | Rep 34% | Ind 28%
(Election 2012, it was Dem 38%, Rep 32%, Ind 29%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Voter_demographics
But TRUMP brought so many new republican via Primaries.)

TRUMP vs Hillary
1) Party Affiliation
TRUMP : 
DEM(38%) X -75% Margins  (=Hillary 86% - TRUMP 11%)
+ Rep(34%)x+77% Margins (=TRUMP 85% - Hillary 8%)
+ Ind(TRUMP > Hillary, +13% Margins)
= Total +10.32%.  TRUMP beat Hillary with +10.32% Margins.


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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #34 on: May 22, 2016, 01:21:16 am »

Perhaps Trump is the GOP's best hope at retaking the WH. A good short term play, but terrible long term. He's the only one willing to say and do the things that can take down Hillary Clinton and I think he may be successful. Look, Trump lies. He blatantly lies on national TV and no on calls him out on it. Meanwhile Clinton can't evolve on a position without being called some misogynistic name. Unfortunately, this man could be President.
It's a trade-off, Nobody would care who she was if she were male

Do you really think a former senator and secretary of state wouldn't be a strong contender for the nomination?  Say it was John Kerry, but he was a bit younger, and he had never run before?  Couldn't he win the primary?
I meant as in nobody would ever consider her a realistic senate candidate or decide to make her Secretary of state had she not been female or rode into prominence on her husband's coattails
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Warren Peace🦋
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« Reply #35 on: May 22, 2016, 01:22:37 am »

She's only +2 with Romney pulling 22%? That's a bit hard to believe.

It'd be interesting to see the numbers in a Clinton/Trump/Romney/Sanders race.

Oh, I didn't even notice those Romney numbers. What total garbage. As if two Republicans would combine for nearly 60% of the vote?

Someone should ask ABC if they hire Atlas posters to write their polls for them.
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jfern
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« Reply #36 on: May 22, 2016, 01:23:02 am »


Are you really that anti-Clinton that you're cheering on Trump?

Like most of the BernieOrBust numbskulls, jfern and his other progressive masqueraders would vote for a serial murderer/rapist/pedophile over Hillary.

Well we're not voting for Bill Clinton, who has been accused of rape, and took many plane flights with a pedophile.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #37 on: May 22, 2016, 01:24:54 am »

Still you must admit it is concerning for the left that Hillary has gone from putting Louisiana and West Virginia in play to now at serious risk to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania to Donald effing Trump
I don't know anyone who seriously thought that Louisiana and West Virginia would be in play.

There was some encouraging polling for LA back in 2013/2014, and "Hillary will be competitive in Kentucky and West Virginia because bill won there and muh racism" was a common atlas meme in the pre-campaign period. It fell out of fashion after democrats did so poorly in WV and KY in 2014.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #38 on: May 22, 2016, 01:29:50 am »

Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.
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jfern
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« Reply #39 on: May 22, 2016, 01:46:43 am »

Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.

Who would have thought that maybe running a year long campaign insinuating that your primary opponent's supporters were all sexist and racist white males might not have been the best strategy?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #40 on: May 22, 2016, 01:47:33 am »

Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.

Who would have thought that maybe running a year long campaign insinuating that your primary opponent's supporters were all sexist and racist white males might not have been the best strategy?
When specifically has Clinton or her surrogates come anywhere near insinuating this?
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politicallefty
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« Reply #41 on: May 22, 2016, 02:03:11 am »


Are you really that anti-Clinton that you're cheering on Trump?

Like most of the BernieOrBust numbskulls, jfern and his other progressive masqueraders would vote for a serial murderer/rapist/pedophile over Hillary.

Well we're not voting for Bill Clinton, who has been accused of rape, and took many plane flights with a pedophile.

Wow. I respect and like Bernie and he's one of my favourite US Senators, but I think you're an insult to everything he believes. If you haven't already, I'm sure within a few years you'll be calling President Obama one of the worst war criminals in American history. Not that you care, but President Clinton gave us two outstanding Supreme Court Justices (including the truly amazing Ruth Bader Ginsburg) that have worked hard to preserve human rights and equality (and now support ruling the death penalty itself unconstitutional). Your hatred of the Clintons blinds you to the fact that we have the potential to have five liberals on the Supreme Court for the first time in 45 years.

I think it's quite clear right now that Hillary wants to nominate a different Supreme Court Justice as opposed to President Obama's compromise choice. If she is elected, she is going to want to nominate someone of her own choosing. I realize I may be speaking to a wall here, but would it make any difference to you if she was willing to nominate someone like Goodwin Liu (or he himself)?

I will say that I'm glad that the average Bernie Sanders supporter is more interested in keeping Donald Trump out of the White House than keeping Hillary Clinton out. As for those on the left that believe the latter, I tune them out and keep them blocked whenever possible. If that is you, I'd prefer to know now.
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jfern
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« Reply #42 on: May 22, 2016, 02:07:02 am »

Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.

Who would have thought that maybe running a year long campaign insinuating that your primary opponent's supporters were all sexist and racist white males might not have been the best strategy?
When specifically has Clinton or her surrogates come anywhere near insinuating this?

Oh give me a break, that's about everything that comes out of Blue Nation Review, which is owned by David Brock, whose SuperPAC directly coordinates with the Hillary campaign. They insinuate that every white male who doesn't support Hillary must be a racist and sexist. Such a disgusting campaign.
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MK
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« Reply #43 on: May 22, 2016, 02:07:44 am »

Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.

Who would have thought that maybe running a year long campaign insinuating that your primary opponent's supporters were all sexist and racist white males might not have been the best strategy?
When specifically has Clinton or her surrogates come anywhere near insinuating this?


Shes meeting with Travon Martins mom and other thugs while Trump is out in Appalachia meeting (NRA) white working class folks.  

The optics of that speaks volumes.
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MK
Mike Keller
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« Reply #44 on: May 22, 2016, 02:09:50 am »
« Edited: May 22, 2016, 02:20:13 am by MK »

Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.

Who would have thought that maybe running a year long campaign insinuating that your primary opponent's supporters were all sexist and racist white males might not have been the best strategy?
When specifically has Clinton or her surrogates come anywhere near insinuating this?

delete.
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semocrat08
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« Reply #45 on: May 22, 2016, 02:57:50 am »


Are you really that anti-Clinton that you're cheering on Trump?

Like most of the BernieOrBust numbskulls, jfern and his other progressive masqueraders would vote for a serial murderer/rapist/pedophile over Hillary.

Well we're not voting for Bill Clinton, who has been accused of rape, and took many plane flights with a pedophile.

You. Need. Help.
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Ljube
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« Reply #46 on: May 22, 2016, 04:30:06 am »

Hillary's numbers with whites are brutal.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #47 on: May 22, 2016, 05:38:15 am »


Are you really that anti-Clinton that you're cheering on Trump?

Like most of the BernieOrBust numbskulls, jfern and his other progressive masqueraders would vote for a serial murderer/rapist/pedophile over Hillary.

Well we're not voting for Bill Clinton, who has been accused of rape, and took many plane flights with a pedophile.

You. Need. Help.

I think it's quite apparent that any criticism like you've made means you'll be ignored. I recommend you use the ignore button, as I've now done (the first time I used it was only the result of being terrible right-wing hack, although I suppose essentially enabling a right-wing lunatic isn't too different).
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Ljube
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« Reply #48 on: May 22, 2016, 06:18:39 am »

I think it's quite apparent that any criticism like you've made means you'll be ignored. I recommend you use the ignore button, as I've now done (the first time I used it was only the result of being terrible right-wing hack, although I suppose essentially enabling a right-wing lunatic isn't too different).

Ignore button is for low energy losers.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #49 on: May 22, 2016, 06:47:21 am »


I love it!

Romney led in multiple polls in may you asswipe.

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