WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney

[Miles]

Article.

Trump - 46%
Clinton - 44%

Clinton - 37%
Trump - 35%
Romney - 22%

Favorables:

Clinton 41/57
Trump 40/57

[RFayette]

I still think Trump is down about 5 right now, but this race is admittedly tightening.

[Ronnie]

So the Fox Poll wasn't an outlier after all.  Interesting.  I'm not worried yet, though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Rated A- by 538. Boom!

[MK]

This is interesting.     The Hillary hacks on here were talking about this election being 1964 lol

[Ronnie]

This is interesting.     The Hillary hacks on here were talking about this election being 1964 lol

It might still be a 1964-esque landslide.  We have 5 and a half long months until election day.

[The Other Castro]

Rated A- by 538. Boom!

Are you really that anti-Clinton that you're cheering on Trump?

[Matty]

I'm not even a hillary fan and god damn is jfern one putrid poster.

[Pandaguineapig]

America is going to be made great again, We are just helpless bystanders

[Matty]

Trump is getting 76 PERCENT of working class white males according to this poll, hillary gets 14%.

!!!!!

[The Other Castro]

There are Trump supporters here that, while I may disagree with their preferences, I can respect their choice. Democrats (or progressives/liberals or whatever) that root for Trump purely out of a hatred for Clinton are taking recklessness to a whole new level.

[MK]

Whats the lowest % of male vote vote you win and still win the election?


Hillary is getting crushed among men.

[Vosem]

Setting aside the topline of the poll, which is what it is (my instinct is to say a favorable outlier for Trump, but maybe he really does have a narrow lead at the moment; who knows), some interesting pieces of data inside:

Trump is getting 85% of the Republicans surveyed in this poll. Historically high total.

In spite of this, and in spite of voters' documented tendency to claim to have supported the winner after the fact, only 33% of those Republicans claim they wanted to see Trump win the nomination. 7% are unsure, and 60% would've preferred another candidate. (Specific candidates were named, though not in head-to-heads; named candidates usually perform worse than Generic). Goes to show what a travesty the Republican primaries were. (On another note, this poll's respondents claim to have voted for Obama against Romney 54-42, showing the existence of a bias towards the winner).

On the question of whether Trump reflects the values of the Republican Party (asked of Republicans), there is an even split, 46/46. Represents drastic improvement from last time the question was asked, in July 2015, when Republicans said no, 29/56, but it's still a historically low total for a nominee. 60% of the party want someone else, and fully half feel he doesn't represent them. (Hillary Clinton is Trump's saving grace. A skilled Democrat could've had half the Republican Party flee in terror).

53% of Trump supporters say they are merely opposing Clinton as opposed to actively supporting Trump. This is an incredibly high number in comparison to previous races, but it's pretty similar to Clinton's own totals (48% of her voters are merely opposing Trump). In a negative campaign, which both candidates have said they intend to wage, both of those numbers should rise.

44% of registered voters want a third party. 22% of those would support Romney. Really hope Romney comes around soon to realizing Johnson is his only option and campaigns for him aggressively.

Democrats are 88% confident their party will ultimately coalesce. Republicans are 78% confident their party will coalesce. Probably shows the core BernieOrBust and NeverTrump totals -- 12% and 22% of the parties, respectively. The difference is Bernie will probably campaign for Hillary, whereas NeverTrump politicians will endorse him either tepidly or not at all. I expect the 22% to be much firmer than the 12%.

The Democratic Party is viewed positively, 48/44. The Republican Party is viewed negatively, 36/56. About half of respondents don't care who congressional candidates support presidentially; endorsing Trump seems to hurt more than endorsing Hillary, but then no congressional candidates are running for a national audience.

Lots to pick apart in issues, but very odd in a poll that's one of the most favorable ones to Trump released, at least in the toplines, saying Clinton is more trusted on immigration issues. Very odd.

"Trade with other countries" is declared to cost U.S. jobs, 33/53. Other polling has shown "free trade" getting consistent majorities in favor. People have no idea what they're talking about.

[user12345]

Well at least if Trump becomes president Dems will probably have an amazing midterm in 2018 and gain control of state legislatures before congressional lines are drawn again.

[Pandaguineapig]

This sample is also among an Obama +12 electorate, Clinton might seriously blow this

[moderatevoter]

This sample is also among an Obama +12 electorate, Clinton might seriously blow this

Maybe, but there also tends to be a "bandwagoning effect" of sorts when this type of question is asked.

[Ebsy]

This sample is also among an Obama +12 electorate, Clinton might seriously blow this

No it is not?

[Dr. Arch]

The nation has 5 or so months to wake up against such as dangerous candidate as Trump... I hope it does.

[Pandaguineapig]

This sample is also among an Obama +12 electorate, Clinton might seriously blow this

No it is not?

Look at the detailed results, The Past voters voted Obama 54 Romney 42

[politicallefty]

Why are people lighting their hair on fire over polls in May? If we go by polls in May, Jimmy Carter was coasting to a landslide in 1976 and relatively easy reelection in 1980. Obviously, everyone in May 1988 knew Michael Dukakis was heading towards a landslide victory after eight years of Republican rule. And, of course, GWHB and Ross Perot were locked in a tight battle with little known Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton in third place.

Let's step back and look at the facts here. Polling is really all over the place right now. The Republican primaries are over and Republicans are largely rallying to their nominee. The Democratic primary is still being heavily contested. I can't say I like polls like these, but I'm not worried right now. The point at which I'll be very concerned with polling like this is after Labor Day.

[Ebsy]

This sample is also among an Obama +12 electorate, Clinton might seriously blow this

No it is not?

Look at the detailed results, The Past voters voted Obama 54 Romney 42

Okay, thanks, I found it. It was cut in half on the pdf lol.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Poor ABC.

[IceSpear]

Why are people lighting their hair on fire over polls in May? If we go by polls in May, Jimmy Carter was coasting to a landslide in 1976 and relatively easy reelection in 1980. Obviously, everyone in May 1988 knew Michael Dukakis was heading towards a landslide victory after eight years of Republican rule. And, of course, GWHB and Ross Perot were locked in a tight battle with little known Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton in third place.

Let's step back and look at the facts here. Polling is really all over the place right now. The Republican primaries are over and Republicans are largely rallying to their nominee. The Democratic primary is still being heavily contested. I can't say I like polls like these, but I'm not worried right now. The point at which I'll be very concerned with polling like this is after Labor Day.

Democrats/lefties tend to be lame debbie downers and constantly think the sky is falling. I still remember in October 2008 when the lefty blogosphere was in full scale panic mode about a few polls showing Obama up "only" 5-6 points in PA...when most showed him up double digits. lol

Then again, maybe if people weren't dumb enough to believe Hillary was a lock, this wouldn't be that shocking to them. Seriously, it should not be surprising to anyone that the country could possibly vote for Trump when 46% of them voted for Sarah Palin to be an old man's heartbeat away from the presidency. Interestingly, Trump is actually at 46% in this poll.

[Pandaguineapig]

Why are people lighting their hair on fire over polls in May? If we go by polls in May, Jimmy Carter was coasting to a landslide in 1976 and relatively easy reelection in 1980. Obviously, everyone in May 1988 knew Michael Dukakis was heading towards a landslide victory after eight years of Republican rule. And, of course, GWHB and Ross Perot were locked in a tight battle with little known Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton in third place.

Let's step back and look at the facts here. Polling is really all over the place right now. The Republican primaries are over and Republicans are largely rallying to their nominee. The Democratic primary is still being heavily contested. I can't say I like polls like these, but I'm not worried right now. The point at which I'll be very concerned with polling like this is after Labor Day.

Democrats/lefties tend to be lame debbie downers and constantly think the sky is falling. I still remember in October 2008 when the lefty blogosphere was in full scale panic mode about a few polls showing Obama up "only" 5-6 points in PA...when most showed him up double digits. lol

Then again, maybe if people weren't dumb enough to believe Hillary was a lock, this wouldn't be that shocking to them. Seriously, it should not be surprising to anyone that the country could possibly vote for Trump when 46% of them voted for Sarah Palin to be an old man's heartbeat away from the presidency. Interestingly, Trump is actually at 46% in this poll.

Still you must admit it is concerning for the left that Hillary has gone from putting Louisiana and West Virginia in play to now at serious risk to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania to Donald effing Trump

[RJEvans]

Perhaps Trump is the GOP's best hope at retaking the WH. A good short term play, but terrible long term. He's the only one willing to say and do the things that can take down Hillary Clinton and I think he may be successful. Look, Trump lies. He blatantly lies on national TV and no on calls him out on it. Meanwhile Clinton can't evolve on a position without being called some misogynistic name. Unfortunately, this man could be President.