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Author Topic: OH/FL-CBS/YouGov: Clinton up +5/+1  (Read 2084 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: May 22, 2016, 10:08:34 am »

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-poll-ohio-and-florida-show-tight-races-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/


Florida:
Clinton - 43%
Trump - 42%

Ohio
Clinton - 44%
Trump - 39%

« Last Edit: May 22, 2016, 10:11:33 am by Fusionmunster »Logged
Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2016, 10:11:08 am »

BEAUTIFUL!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2016, 10:12:54 am »

Looks like we might need to take a second look at the CV that Trump will do better in OH than FL.
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Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2016, 10:32:37 am »

15% and 17% undecided is pretty high, but to be expected this early, I guess. Still means it's anyone's game in both...and anyone's game is actually pretty a pretty Trump-favorable description for Florida.

I don't think a Republican candidate wins without carrying both of these states, so Trump has his work cut out for him. (Yes, Pennsylvania could theoretically replace Florida, but even with Trump on the ballot, I think Florida ends up closer to the national average than Pennsylvania)
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2016, 10:39:15 am »

Trump needs both of these states, so being down 5 in Ohio is hardly good news for him.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2016, 10:43:08 am »

Trump does better than Romney with Hispanics in FL against Clinton (loses them by just 14) and is actually tied with Sanders among Hispanics.
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bumpercrop
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2016, 10:50:18 am »

Trump does better than Romney with Hispanics in FL against Clinton (loses them by just 14) and is actually tied with Sanders among Hispanics.

Again, please understand subsample MOE
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Angrie
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2016, 11:06:46 am »

Junk internet poll. You are not going to get a good sample from an internet poll, especially for a state with a lot of Hispanics and Seniors.

They mixed up the numbers. It should really be Clinton +5 in Florida and up 1 in Ohio.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2016, 11:27:12 am »

Junk internet poll. You are not going to get a good sample from an internet poll, especially for a state with a lot of Hispanics and Seniors.

They mixed up the numbers. It should really be Clinton +5 in Florida and up 1 in Ohio.

No one here really likes YouGov, but CBS seems to have enough faith in them and quite frankly I trust them more than Rasmussen or anything coming out of Fox.
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LLR
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2016, 11:42:04 am »

This poll is weird, and I don't trust it much, but I'll take +5 in OH any day.
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marty
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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2016, 11:49:34 am »

These results seem off to me.
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Angrie
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2016, 11:59:09 am »

No one here really likes YouGov, but CBS seems to have enough faith in them and quite frankly I trust them more than Rasmussen or anything coming out of Fox.

CBS "has faith" in them because it is cheaper to do internet polls than phone polls. If they could get high quality phone polls for cheaper, they would "have faith" in high quality phone polls. The point of networks doing polls is so that they have something to talk about on air, and so that they can write stories about the polls. The accuracy of the polls doesn't count for nothing, but is decidedly secondary. To them, it is mostly a matter of "bang for the buck."
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Ljube
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2016, 01:23:20 pm »

Hmmm... so do the Trump resort boost and Midwest nice penalty live on in the general?

Yes, they do.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2016, 01:34:27 pm »


in my opinion This Poll(Ohio) YouGov/CBS 5/16-5/19 overweighted democrats too much
and underweighted Independents too much.

About the details, My Analysis

1. Demographcis of Ohio in 2016.
1) Population: 11.6 Million
2) Registered Voters (Post March,2016)
http://www.athensmessenger.com/news/more-than-locals-switched-political-party-affiliation-in-primary/article_0cbe0d02-e83a-5617-91ae-e6aac1ead07f.html

Total: 7.61 Million Registered Voters

Republican: 2.26 Million ( 29.7%)
Democrats: 1.44 Million (14.9%)
Independents: 3.91 Million ( 51.4%)


2. Put the Poll Results to Realistic Party Affiliation Demographics
YouGov/CBS Poll(Ohio) 5/16-5/19, 990 LV. Page 13

https://www.scribd.com/doc/313450292/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Ohio-May-22


Calculation

1) TRUMP
Rep(29.7%) x 80% + Dem(14.9%) x 6% + Ind(51.4%) x 39% = 44.69%
2) Hillary
Rep(29.7%) x 4% + Dem(14.9%) x 82% + Ind(51.4%) x 37% = 35.91%

Totally different with Poll Results which was Hillary 44% TRUMP 39%
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2016, 05:16:34 pm »

Looks like we might need to take a second look at the CV that Trump will do better in OH than FL.

It's possible, but I'm not buying it yet.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2016, 05:16:55 pm »

stuff

stop
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Ljube
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« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2016, 05:20:18 pm »


Why? I kind of like StatesPoll. This board wasn't the same without him. Smiley
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henster
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« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2016, 05:20:49 pm »

Yes the OH poll is D+10, in '08 it was only D+8 and there has been a decline since then.
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dspNY
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« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2016, 05:57:40 pm »


Why? I kind of like StatesPoll. This board wasn't the same without him. Smiley

StatesPoll is Dean Chambers
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Higgs
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« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2016, 10:18:00 pm »

Trump should pick Kasich
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