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Author Topic: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12  (Read 2483 times)
Fargobison
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« on: May 25, 2016, 01:24:11 pm »

Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2016, 01:25:32 pm »

Too many undecideds. Junk poll!
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dax00
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2016, 01:28:50 pm »

Too many undecideds. Junk poll!
Lots of undecideds don't automatically make it a junk poll. Geez. Not pushing them does make it a junk poll.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2016, 01:29:42 pm »

B-b-but Trump could turn the rust belt blue!!!!!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2016, 01:29:46 pm »

Wisconsin is safe D with Trump at the top of the GOP ticket.  Nothing to see here.

B-b-but Trump could turn the rust belt red!!!!!

Wisconsin is hardly a rust belt state.
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mds32
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2016, 01:31:21 pm »

Too many undecideds. Junk poll!
Lots of undecideds don't automatically make it a junk poll. Geez. Not pushing them does make it a junk poll.

I agree
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2016, 01:31:22 pm »

Conducted May 10-12, 2016. Even though WI will be a difficult state for Trump to win, he isn't going to lose it by 12 - especially if he's leading Clinton in NC and tied with her in OH/FL.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2016, 01:33:50 pm »

I would expect WI to have a fair amount of undecideds at the moment, lots of #NeverTrumpers and Bernie supporters.

Would have be interesting to see a poll of the state with 3rd party candidates included.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2016, 01:39:08 pm by Fargobison »Logged
WI is Safe D
Beef
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« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2016, 01:34:04 pm »

Oh, gosh, oh geez.  Dat Trump, he's so impolite, hey.  Hillary, at least you woont be embarrassed to have at da church fish fry.
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WI is Safe D
Beef
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« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2016, 01:38:07 pm »

1. All those undecideds = problem

2. Further evidence that Trump's Midwest nice problem carries over to the general?

3. Really, really want to see a poll of Iowa now!

This.  And Minnesota, if anything to confirm/deny the "Minnesota inelasticity" theory.  Watch as MN polls +5.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2016, 01:39:17 pm »

This one is weird. It has 11% undecided and 9% "would not vote". I guess the rest are "others".
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2016, 01:55:58 pm »

Another poll where I wish the pollster pushed undecideds more, but it's another bit of evidence that Trump has much less appeal in the upper Midwest than he does in OH/PA.  I'm very interested in seeing a high quality poll of Iowa.
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« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2016, 02:00:54 pm »

Trump isn't a strong candidate for IA, so I don't see why it wouldn't be slightly more Democratic than the national average, as it usually is.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2016, 02:09:14 pm »

Too many undecideds. Junk poll!
Lots of undecideds don't automatically make it a junk poll. Geez. Not pushing them does make it a junk poll.

Well, yeah... didn't think I needed to type all that out on here.
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« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2016, 02:11:01 pm »

This one is weird. It has 11% undecided and 9% "would not vote". I guess the rest are "others".

Wisconsin might actually be one of the better states for third party candidates. They don't seem to like Clinton or Trump much.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2016, 02:12:32 pm »

Trump isn't a strong candidate for IA, so I don't see why it wouldn't be slightly more Democratic than the national average, as it usually is.

Yeah, I think it could be even a couple points more Dem than usual this year.  It's still nice to have (good) polls though.
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« Reply #16 on: May 25, 2016, 02:15:18 pm »

In the IA polls before the caucus, Clinton was actually either tied or narrowly behind/ahead of Trump, while leading him nationally by a substantial margin. I definitely expect Trump to do better in IA than in WI, but yeah, it's a Tossup.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2016, 02:21:03 pm »

In January we got a Clinton +8 and a tie from two good pollsters.  And nothing since then, so I'm curious.  Only 6 EVs, but they could end up being important.
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Beef
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« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2016, 02:25:06 pm »

This one is weird. It has 11% undecided and 9% "would not vote". I guess the rest are "others".

Wisconsin might actually be one of the better states for third party candidates. They don't seem to like Clinton or Trump much.

In my 18 years in the state I never saw any third-party candidate other than Perot gain much traction, and he was more a protest vote than anything else.

Wisconsin is split down the middle between staunch conservatives and labor-progressive Democrats.  The former really don't like Trump, while the latter will unify behind Clinton, despite Sanders having won the primary.  Huge advantage to Clinton.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2016, 02:53:44 pm »

Oh, gosh, oh geez.  Dat Trump, he's so impolite, hey.  Hillary, at least you woont be embarrassed to have at da church fish fry.

This is very accurate.
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« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2016, 02:57:48 pm »

Why bother keeping in "would not vote"?

Without that

Clinton 47%
Trump 34%

A little better I guess
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: May 25, 2016, 03:19:09 pm »

Someone is above 40, so it has value. A poll in which nobody is above 40 is useless even if valid.
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« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2016, 03:28:38 pm »

Trump isn't a strong candidate for IA, so I don't see why it wouldn't be slightly more Democratic than the national average, as it usually is.

Honestly I have trouble seeing how Trump will win Iowa when the clip of him saying this is blanketing their airwaves non-stop in the Fall:



And that's on top of his numerous other gaffes and insults that make life difficult for him in swing states. I must say, it is kind of him to provide Clinton with very personalized attack ad material just for Iowa.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: May 25, 2016, 03:29:31 pm »

Should be noted that some right wing talk radio in Wisconsin is still #NeverTrump and have stated they will not back down. That's not going to help Trump in the Fall.
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« Reply #24 on: May 25, 2016, 03:36:28 pm »

Iowa and Wisconsin go almost in tandem, the one time in which they went differently in recent years (2004) showing them both very close to 50-50 ties that year.
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