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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Democrats, the party of urbanites.
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Author Topic: Democrats, the party of urbanites.  (Read 3966 times)
IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« on: May 27, 2016, 04:36:22 pm »

2012 marked the most concentrated electoral votes of any presidential election ever. Just 25 counties were needed for victory. Obama could have lost every other county in America and still prevailed with the following:

WASHINGTON - KING COUNTY
OREGON - MULTNOMAH COUNTY
NEVADA - CLARK COUNTY
CALIFORNIA - LOS ANGELES COUNTY
ILLINOIS - COOK COUNTY
MARYLAND - PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY
MICHIGAN - WAYNE COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA - PHILADELPHIA COUNTY
MASSACHUSETTS - MIDDLESEX COUNTY
CONNECTICUT - HARTFORD COUNTY
NEW JERSEY - ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK - KINGS COUNTY
MINNESOTA - HENNEPIN COUNTY
WISCONSIN - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
WISCONSIN - DANE COUNTY
OHIO - MAHONING COUNTY
OHIO - CUYAHOGA COUNTY
OHIO - LUCAS COUNTY
OHIO - FRANKLIN COUNTY
FLORIDA - LEON COUNTY
FLORIDA - PALM BEACH COUNTY
FLORIDA - BROWARD COUNTY
FLORIDA - MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
FLORIDA - HILLSBORO COUNTY
FLORIDA - PINIELLAS COUNTY
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cxs018
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2016, 04:39:54 pm »

1 like = 1 cri evritiem
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2016, 04:40:08 pm »

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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2016, 04:41:28 pm »

Not as simple to figure out as it may seem. Wink If you go back in the past, you won't find any election as heavily concentrated in a few counties.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2016, 04:42:59 pm »

Democrats, the party of places where people actually live.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2016, 04:48:50 pm »

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Add a few more and you'd have the true FREIWALL. It's not really states, but counties. You could, literally, run a campaign bus from Boston down to Maryland - then take a flight into Minneapolis - do another bus run from Minneapolis to Cleveland, then fly over to Vegas, then LA, then Portland and roll bus from Portland into Washington, and cover every county you need.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2016, 05:50:40 pm »

We should base electoral votes off acreage. Why do Dhimmicraps want to disenfranchise the votes of trees, rocks, cows, corn, sand, and desolate wastelands?
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Bismarck
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2016, 05:52:32 pm »

Democrats, the party of places where people actually live.

Yeah the millions of people who don't live in those counties don't matter 🙄.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2016, 07:01:46 pm »

Democrats, the party of places where people actually live.

Yeah the millions of people who don't live in those counties don't matter 🙄.

They matter in proportion to their numbers.

One person - one vote.  One vote - one value.
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Santender
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2016, 07:07:29 pm »

If there's so few, let's get rid of them.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2016, 07:14:48 pm »

What does this even mean?  He could have won those counties and lost the other by one vote and still won?  I refuse to believe he could have won the entire state of New York with just Brooklyn (Kings County) that doesn't make any sense.
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Badger
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2016, 07:20:02 pm »

What does this even mean?  He could have won those counties and lost the other by one vote and still won?  I refuse to believe he could have won the entire state of New York with just Brooklyn (Kings County) that doesn't make any sense.

This. Show your math Kenobi, or it's not true.

And even if it is, so what? Serious question. Huh
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2016, 01:37:40 am »

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Obama's margin in Kings County alone is greater than the total Romney margin in all the New York counties won by Romney. In states where democrats won all the counties, one county would be sufficient (as Romney had no margin anywhere).

However, this path, is why Clark and Vegas are on the list and places like Hawaii and Rhode Island are not - because Nevada has more EC votes tied up in Clark county. Even with the multiple counties for Ohio and Florida, this is the minimum number of counties needed to win.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2016, 01:40:08 am »

F'rinstance in Wisconsin, Obama requires both Dane and Milwaukee in order to overcome the combined Romney margin in the counties that Romney won.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2016, 01:44:10 am »
« Edited: May 28, 2016, 02:01:28 am by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »

As for the math:

Kings county (Brooklyn) 604,443 Obama
Kings county (Brooklyn) 124,551 Romney.

That gives Obama a +480k voting bloc.

Romney counties:

Putnam 24,083 R
Putnam 19,512 D

Greene 11,174 R
Greene  9,030 D

Delaware 9,983 R
Delaware 8,304 D

Schoharie 7,467 R
Schoharie 5,427 D

Chenango 9,713 R
Chenango 9,116 D

Tioga 12,117 R
Tioga  8,930 D

Chemung 17,612 R
Chemung 16,797 D

Schuyler 4,281 R
Schuyler 3,674 D

Steuben 21,974 R
Steuben 15,787 D

Yates 4,798 R
Yates 4,488 D

Ontario 23,830 R
Ontario 23,087 D

Wayne 20,060 R
Wayne 16,635 D

Livingston 14,448 R
Livingston 11,705 D

Allegany 10,390 R
Allegany  6,139 D

Cattaraugus 16,569 R
Cattaraugus 12,649 D

Chautauqua 27,971 R
Chautauqua 23,812 D

Wyoming 10,348 R
Wyoming  5,661 D

Genesee  14,607 R
Genesee   9,601 D

Orleans  8,594 R
Orleans  5,787 D

Montgomery 9,334 R
Montgomery 8,493 D

Fulton 10,812 R
Fulton 8,607 D

Hamilton 1,932 R
Hamilton 1,128 D

Herkimer 13,282 R
Herkimer 11,273 D

Oneida 44,530 R
Oneida 40,468 D

Lewis 5,651 R
Lewis 4,724 D

Jefferson 18,122 R
Jefferson 17,099 D


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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2016, 02:03:55 am »
« Edited: May 28, 2016, 02:11:49 am by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »

Romney would have needed to win 27 counties by a margin of 17k per county in order to overcome Obama's lead in Kings.

He exceeded 5k in Putnam, Steuben, Genesee, and 10k in none, ergo Kings alone was more than enough.

Total Romney margin was 65,749 over all the counties he won.

If I wanted to be particularly facetious, Obama could lose every county but Erie County and still win New York state.
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Anonymous
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2016, 04:05:45 am »

This thread reminds me of the divisive comments made by Sarah Palin about "real America..."

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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2016, 12:30:38 pm »

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I was staggered by the results of this and the implication. Philadelphia is the most striking example, IMO.
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« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2016, 12:46:28 pm »

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I was staggered by the results of this and the implication. Philadelphia is the most striking example, IMO.

There are still plenty of rural counties that vote Democratic, most notably in the South, granted these are probably ~98 percent majority African American, if I had to take a guess.

Republicans really haven't tried to make inroads within urban voters; if anything, they've just alienated them even more. Ted Cruz's "New York City values" smear is perhaps the most recent example. Republicans talk up a good game about how "exceptional" America is, lest they never stop bashing New York City, Los Angeles/Hollywood, San Francisco, and other big cities where they get crushed in every election. Las I checked, these cities were a part of America, too.

(Before I'm accused of being a hack, I'm fully aware that Democrats do the same to Rural America; most notably are Barack Obama's "bitter clingy" remarks in the 2008 primary, and John Murtha calling his former constituents in Southwest Pennsylvania rednecks.)
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Badger
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2016, 09:47:04 pm »

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I was staggered by the results of this and the implication. Philadelphia is the most striking example, IMO.

Well, let's not be cute here Kenobi. The "real America" meme was essentially what you were getting at.

And again, so what? A quick review of the national county map shows many, many rural and non- urban counties that vote Democratic--many in the upper Midwest overwhelmingly white--and more than a few urban GOP counties (Duval FL, OK & Tulsa OK, VA Beach VA, El Paso CO, etc.).

People vote, not acres. Get over it and your lame divisiveness.
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Scott 🤡🌏
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2016, 10:21:43 pm »

Remember when Bandit made that stupid thread about Romney winning Kentucky overwhelmingly despite losing almost every major city there?  This thread is the opposite of that, I think.
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Santender
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2016, 10:59:03 pm »

Remember when Bandit made that stupid thread about Romney winning Kentucky overwhelmingly despite losing almost every major city there?  This thread is the opposite of that, I think.
lol, the entire one and a half major cities in KY.
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Shameless Bernie Hack
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« Reply #22 on: May 30, 2016, 04:35:13 am »

This is actually a problem for state leg (and thus US House, yaaay redistricting).

Also a problem for us rural dems.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #23 on: May 30, 2016, 08:10:30 am »
« Edited: May 30, 2016, 09:25:57 am by President Griffin »

It's just as much of an issue within the party itself in terms of a representation issue.

Below, each county in blue is the largest single county in terms of Democratic primary votes for that state. For each state below, the gray counties in said state produced as many votes in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary as the blue county in the state; the dark blue counties are a majority of the state's Democratic voting bloc (NV, UT, HI, IL, AZ). The general goal was to start with the counties that were least-populated/fewest number of Democratic primary voters in order to maximize the geographic visual effect.

Nationally, approximately 25% of the national Democratic primary/caucus vote came from the counties in blue. Another 25% came from the areas in gray, and the remaining 50% came from the counties in white.

What this shows in some states (chart below) - although it wasn't the original intent - is the huge extent to which suburban Democrats are a huge portion of the bloc. Take Texas, for instance: 70% of Democratic primary voters in the state were in the counties in white. For Georgia, it's 70% as well. In some of these states (more so Texas than Georgia), picking "the county with the most Democratic votes" really ends up being in vein, since there may be multiple urban counties with comparable numbers of Democratic votes - as well as many highly-populated suburban counties.

Missouri and Virginia were other ones that short of shocked me (50% being in the white counties for MO; 65% for VA).



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LLR
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« Reply #24 on: May 30, 2016, 08:46:11 am »

It's just as much of an issue within the party itself in terms of a representation issue.

Below, each county in blue is the largest single county in terms of Democratic primary votes for that state. For each state below, the gray counties in said state produced as many votes in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary as the blue county in the state; the dark blue counties are a majority of the state's Democratic voting bloc (NV, UT, HI, IL, AZ). The general goal was to start with the counties that were least-populated/fewest number of Democratic primary voters in order to maximize the geographic visual effect.

Approximately 25% of the national Democratic primary/caucus vote (at the time this map was made; other states have voted since) came from the counties in blue. Another 25% came from the areas in gray, and the remaining 50% are in the counties in white (again, states where all counties are white are not included in that assessment).

What this shows in some states (chart below) - although it wasn't the original intent - is the huge extent to which suburban Democrats are a huge portion of the bloc. Take Texas, for instance: 70% of Democratic primary voters in the state were in the counties in white. For Georgia, it's 70% as well. In some of these states (more so Texas than Georgia), picking "the county with the most Democratic votes" really ends up being in vein, since there may be multiple urban counties with comparable numbers of Democratic votes - as well as many highly-populated suburban counties.

Missouri and Virginia were other ones that short of shocked me (50% being in the white counties for MO; 65% for VA).





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