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  OR-Clout Research: Clinton low energy; Oregon wants to make America great again
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Author Topic: OR-Clout Research: Clinton low energy; Oregon wants to make America great again  (Read 4327 times)
JRP1994
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« on: May 28, 2016, 07:44:22 pm »

http://cloutpolitical.com/oregon-poll-trump-leads-clinton-in-new-general-election-poll/

Trump: 44%
Clinton: 42%
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2016, 07:44:59 pm »

R+1
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marty
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2016, 07:49:25 pm »

junk junk junk junk
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Arch
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2016, 07:49:43 pm »

WTH?
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2016, 07:55:06 pm »

Oregon? I never would have thought. But then again, they love Bernie. Still, this is a stretch.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2016, 07:56:02 pm »


Junk firm/Oregon flirting with gop

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/or/oregon_romney_vs_obama-2749.html

As you can see, Obama never polled very well here.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2016, 07:56:35 pm »

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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2016, 08:17:26 pm »

This is a Republican firm.
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Gabagool102
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2016, 08:19:43 pm »

Trump, has now surged ahead of Clinton in Oregon.

http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf
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LLR
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2016, 08:31:02 pm »

Fixed title, junk poll, etc.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2016, 08:36:32 pm »

Oregon? I never would have thought. But then again, they love Bernie. Still, this is a stretch.


As I have stated before on multiple threads there will be a significant decrease from Obama support, caused by an effective collapse of her support among downstate Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents.

Based upon Democratic Primary results in Washington and Oregon, she has effectively lost a huge chunk of the base Democratic vote in regions that have been gradually trending Republican, including historically heavily Democratic blue-collar and union regions of the state.

Regardless of the media hype regarding Millennials, the real threat to Hillary is from middle-age and older voters that have been part of the Democratic Coalition since the New Deal that feel abandoned by the Democratic Party, that since the 1990s has moved towards a more corporate model and left behind key segments of the party base and not just a handful of young voters in Eugene and Corvallis during the current primary season.

Trump winning Oregon is still a total pipe-dream, but I do believe that he will likely keep Hillary down to an 8-10 point win, and possibly lower depending unless Hillary can actually communicate a message that speaks to rural and small-town America, including Democratic strongholds, without doing some of the shtick that she did in the primaries framing Bernie as a Gun Nut, promising to close down resource dependent sectors of the economy, and acting like a typical politician, flip-flopping on Free Trade, with TPP being one of her signature achievements at SoS, which is not that major an issue in Southern Oregon, but shows a certain lack of character that we are used to voting for elected leaders both Republican and Democrat.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2016, 08:42:36 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2016, 08:51:17 pm by Ronnie »

So the stereotype of Oregon being a state full of angry Bernie Bros. is true?


Is there a proven relationship between a pollster being a member of a political party, and the results of their polls being skewed toward that party?

I'm not trying to make a pointed remark or anything; I'm genuinely curious.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2016, 08:43:24 pm »


what did I say? I said Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2016, 08:49:45 pm »


Maybe he should pour here whatever resources remain after he competes at California and New York.
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Gabagool102
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2016, 08:53:09 pm »



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Trans Rights Are Human Rights
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2016, 08:57:35 pm »

Is there any reason why you posted that three times?
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Gabagool102
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2016, 09:05:24 pm »


Come on, Fusionsmunster, I am now convinced that 2016 will be a realignment. Could we see Oregon and Maine voting to the right of Florida? Both states might do a WV 2000 this year.

Anyway, I told you guys that OR was a lean R for Trump.

Wow, and everyone was calling you a troll as well. LOL
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2016, 09:07:26 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2016, 09:10:58 pm by StatesPoll »


when I posted it (Oregon could be a swing state in 2016)
2weeks ago

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236897.0


Everybody laughed on me.....

But I was right.


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diskymike44
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« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2016, 09:09:12 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2016, 09:22:08 pm by Spooky Mike »

Lol no. She will win it by 10 points. Clout Reseacrch was only formed last December.

The last poll from Oregon was Eariler this month when she was leading by 11.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/
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Gabagool102
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2016, 09:11:04 pm »



Because the liberal Hillary Clinton supports believe that Clinton will win every state by +30. They are delusional, and really don't realize that trump is not a typical republican.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2016, 09:14:47 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2016, 10:58:19 pm by john cage bubblegum »

Yawn.  BTW, it looks like the primary pollster for "Clout Research" is Fritz Wenzel, of the awful, super R biased Wenzel Strategies, which produced gems like this in 2012 (Romney +3, Mandel +5 in OH in late October):  http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/wenzel-strategies-r-citizens-united-16430.

I do think Hillary can underperform Obama in Oregon, perhaps depending on the level of support Bernie gives to Hillary.  But she is no danger of losing the state except in an 7-10 point Trump landslide.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2016, 09:16:21 pm »



Because the liberal Hillary Clinton supports believe that Clinton will win every state by +30. They are delusional, and really don't realize that trump is not a typical republican.

I can see bunch of HH(Hillary Hooligan) in here.

anyway, if TRUMP beat Hillary in Oregon. It is very likely he also has a chance in Washington(WA)

Because demographics(Political) of WA is very similar with Oregon.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2016, 09:19:57 pm »

So the stereotype of Oregon being a state full of angry Bernie Bros. is true?


Is there a proven relationship between a pollster being a member of a political party, and the results of their polls being skewed toward that party?

I'm not trying to make a pointed remark or anything; I'm genuinely curious.

No... the reality is that Hillary has been an extremely poor candidate in terms of holding and expanding the Obama coalition.

The fictional "Bernie Bros" are not the issue, this is simply a media storm to describe a fictional stereotype of a fractional minority of Bernie supporters that are white males under the age of 30 and hate women... Or so I understand the stereotype to be.

The issue is that Hillary has done an extremely poor job of communicating the Progressive Democratic message in places like Coos, Columbia, and Linn county Oregon, as well as Clark and Lewis County Washington that is representative of a collapse among a segment of the Democratic electorate where she did much better than Obama in the '08 primaries who over-performed in major urban areas of the Pacific Northwest mainly because she was perceived as a pro-Iraq War hawk, but did extremely well in those same areas in '08 when she was perceived as more credible on economic issues.

Her major problem has to do with a perception in solid blue Democratic areas in the Rural, Small Town and Smaller Cities (true or not) that she basically wants to continue the policies that many working-class Democrats in those areas feel has caused a dramatic decrease in our standard of living over the past 20+ years, ever since the Democratic Party moved to the Right in the 1990s, and the only thing stopping the bleeding was that the Republican Party was moving even further to the Right on economic issues.

Sadly, I fear that Hillary will have a hard time communicating a progressive democratic agenda that talks to the experience of a key segment of the Democratic electorate that feels abandoned by their own party, and by default drifts into the slippery slope of Trumpism.

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StatesPoll
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2016, 09:24:21 pm »

Oregon? I never would have thought. But then again, they love Bernie. Still, this is a stretch.


when I posted it (Oregon could be a swing state in 2016) 2weeks ago

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236897.0

Everybody laughed on me.....

But I was right.
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Silurian
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2016, 09:31:58 pm »

when I posted it (Oregon could be a swing state in 2016)
2weeks ago

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236897.0


Everybody laughed on me.....

But I was right.

No, you aren't. You think one questionable poll proves your theory? If you truly pay attention to polls as much as you suggest, then you would know one outlier poll means nothing right now. Obama's RCP average against Romney in Oregon was 6 points, and he ended up winning by 12. Obama got a +2 poll in Connecticut against Romney and Obama went on to win it by over 17 points, yet when that +2 poll came out, I'm sure you would have been there claiming your theory about Connecticut being a swing state was TOTALLY true.

Cherry picking polls and making arbitrary demographic calculations is not a great way to make accurate predictions.
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