SD-Targeted Persuasion: Clinton +3

[IceSpear]

This is around the same as Nebraska...except Nebraska was a closed beauty contest and this is an open real primary. I'm skeptical. Especially since independents will have nowhere else to go except for the Dem side, as the GOP side is closed and already over.

[IceSpear]

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.

I'd be surprised if she didn't win NM easily.

[IceSpear]

South Dakota went for Hillary in 2008 by 10 points. Let's not disregard that.

She likely only won it because she campaigned there while Obama ignored it and pivoted to the general (sound familiar?)

Besides, she got crushed in a state she won by 40+ points last time, so it seems quite safe to disregard it.

[IceSpear]

Here are all of their other polls: http://www.targetedpersuasionpolls.com/#!public-polls/szoo1

They've only done 5 other states, but they've gotten the right candidate all 5 times (Sanders in Indiana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia and Clinton in Kentucky and Connecticut).

Looks like we may have a good new pollster on our hands. Very impressive.