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Author Topic: NY-Siena Research Clinton 52 Trump 31  (Read 1071 times)
mds32
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« on: May 31, 2016, 09:08:39 am »

New York
Clinton 52%
Trump 31%
Other 5%

SWING STATE!!!!!!!!!

http://files.ctctcdn.com/9c83fb30501/569e3a39-1980-40df-8eb5-33a0aee226f0.pdf
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2016, 09:28:39 am »

Hopefully Trump spends lots of money and time in NY. He might even crack 40%!
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mds32
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2016, 09:30:48 am »

Hopefully Trump spends lots of money and time in NY. He might even crack 40%!

That's the best Bush did in 2004.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2016, 09:33:30 am »

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/31/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-21-points-new-y/#disqus_thread

"Mrs. Clinton was at 52 percent support in the Sienna College poll, compared to Mr. Trumpís 31 percent support. Though still a healthy advantage, the 21-point margin was actually down a bit from Mrs. Clintonís 56 percent to 30 percent lead over Mr. Trump in a Sienna poll released in early May."

It's early; polls can change. NY Democrats outnumber NY Republicans by a 2-1 ratio, so many are supporting Hillary by default. When the general election hits its prime in a few months, people will pay attention; and anything can happen. Trump is such an unusual candidate that I wouldn't rule out NY.

Hillary will win West Virginia. A poll from last year had her down 37, but the newest one only has her down 27. It is a crazy year and anything can happen in politics.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2016, 09:33:50 am »

And for some reason the Trump campaign is targeting NY. lmao
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Redban
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2016, 09:36:04 am »

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/31/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-21-points-new-y/#disqus_thread

"Mrs. Clinton was at 52 percent support in the Sienna College poll, compared to Mr. Trumpís 31 percent support. Though still a healthy advantage, the 21-point margin was actually down a bit from Mrs. Clintonís 56 percent to 30 percent lead over Mr. Trump in a Sienna poll released in early May."

It's early; polls can change. NY Democrats outnumber NY Republicans by a 2-1 ratio, so many are supporting Hillary by default. When the general election hits its prime in a few months, people will pay attention; and anything can happen. Trump is such an unusual candidate that I wouldn't rule out NY.

Hillary will win West Virginia. A poll from last year had her down 37, but the newest one only has her down 27. It is a crazy year and anything can happen in politics.

Your West Virginia poll: Last year vs This year

This New York poll: Early May vs Late May

Surely, you know the difference between a month and a year.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2016, 09:51:25 am »

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/31/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-21-points-new-y/#disqus_thread

"Mrs. Clinton was at 52 percent support in the Sienna College poll, compared to Mr. Trumpís 31 percent support. Though still a healthy advantage, the 21-point margin was actually down a bit from Mrs. Clintonís 56 percent to 30 percent lead over Mr. Trump in a Sienna poll released in early May."

It's early; polls can change. NY Democrats outnumber NY Republicans by a 2-1 ratio, so many are supporting Hillary by default. When the general election hits its prime in a few months, people will pay attention; and anything can happen. Trump is such an unusual candidate that I wouldn't rule out NY.

Hillary will win West Virginia. A poll from last year had her down 37, but the newest one only has her down 27. It is a crazy year and anything can happen in politics.

Your West Virginia poll: Last year vs This year

This New York poll: Early May vs Late May

Surely, you know the difference between a month and a year.

I think you missed the point.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2016, 10:22:19 am »

New York is Safe R with Hillary, Safe D with Bernie!
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HilLarry
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« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2016, 12:42:30 pm »

"I believe that I will win the state of New York, and I will win it BIG!!!" -Donald J. Trump
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2016, 12:51:47 pm »

Trump won't target NY, and if he does, he deserves to lose 1932 style. Heck, is there ANY Democrat who could lose NY in a general election?
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2016, 01:21:17 pm »

Trump won't target NY, and if he does, he deserves to lose 1932 style. Heck, is there ANY Democrat who could lose NY in a general election?

KILLARY WOULD. VOTE BERNIE.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2016, 01:40:16 pm »

Hopefully Trump spends lots of money and time in NY. He might even crack 40%!

Don't worry, won't happen. Big Don is too smart. He will use his resources very properly.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2016, 01:51:41 pm »

Clinton winning by 21 would only be slightly better than Kerry's performance in 2004, Obama won NY by 27 in '08 and 26 in '12. Other poll had Cali +10 similar to Kerry in 2004.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2016, 01:59:03 pm »

Clinton winning by 21 would only be slightly better than Kerry's performance in 2004, Obama won NY by 27 in '08 and 26 in '12. Other poll had Cali +10 similar to Kerry in 2004.

How is your negotiations with Fox News going dude?
Will you take Hannity's slot or O'Reilly's?
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yeah_93
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« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2016, 03:26:37 pm »

Trump might be able to get to 40% at best.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2016, 03:28:31 pm »

Not exactly an amazing result for Clinton here.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2016, 03:39:07 pm »

Not exactly an amazing result for Clinton here.
The May Siena poll in 2012 has Obama +20. Trump is 6 points behind where Romney was, and Clinton 5 behind Obama.
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michelle
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2016, 07:29:57 pm »

I used the demographics of this poll to make an entire map again.



Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren  272 EV's  49.1%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich            266 EV's  50.0%

On the 538 calculator there was an electoral college tie. New Hampshire was the deciding state. (It flipped between R and D if I changed the CEW turnout by a percent.)

The way the demographic calculators was put together caused the PV/EV split. There were a few discrepancies. IA, WI, PA, and VA went different ways in different calculators. (This is why Trump had a 286-252 victory on the RCP calculator.) However, their Democratic leads on one calculator were bigger than the Republican leads for the same state on the other calculator (except Virginia), so the Democrats won three.

I think OC would like this map.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2016, 08:17:31 pm »

Clinton winning by 21 would only be slightly better than Kerry's performance in 2004, Obama won NY by 27 in '08 and 26 in '12. Other poll had Cali +10 similar to Kerry in 2004.
Take NY, calibrate everything by 6 points and who wins the election? Hint: It's not Hillary!

That's the trend the red avatars should be looking at.
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henster
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« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2016, 12:29:54 am »

Clinton winning by 21 would only be slightly better than Kerry's performance in 2004, Obama won NY by 27 in '08 and 26 in '12. Other poll had Cali +10 similar to Kerry in 2004.
Take NY, calibrate everything by 6 points and who wins the election? Hint: It's not Hillary!

That's the trend the red avatars should be looking at.

Yea looking at some of these polls like the Cali one the uniform swing would indicate a Trump victory.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: June 01, 2016, 12:43:49 am »

Clinton winning by 21 would only be slightly better than Kerry's performance in 2004, Obama won NY by 27 in '08 and 26 in '12. Other poll had Cali +10 similar to Kerry in 2004.
Take NY, calibrate everything by 6 points and who wins the election? Hint: It's not Hillary!

That's the trend the red avatars should be looking at.

Yea looking at some of these polls like the Cali one the uniform swing would indicate a Trump victory.

A Trumpster and a Berniebot.
A match made in hell.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #21 on: June 01, 2016, 09:13:23 am »

But the Trumpster told me NY is gonna be a battleground state.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #22 on: June 01, 2016, 10:05:55 am »

But the Trumpster told me NY is gonna be a battleground state.
Not this Trumpster. NY is a lost cause. As is California. If NY and CA get out of "safe/likely" and into "leaning" though, this race is over because the rest of the map is tilting Trump.

I am a realist. Not a blue hack. I don't even drink the OR and NJ is close Kool-Aid at this point until I see more data. I do see a uniform shift from 2008 though, reflecting the state of the polling that has this as a close race.
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