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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2
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Author Topic: CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2  (Read 6883 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: June 01, 2016, 04:01:17 pm »

49/47.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2016, 04:02:02 pm »

Among those who already voted, Clinton leads 58 to 41.
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2016, 04:04:23 pm »
« Edited: June 01, 2016, 04:06:13 pm by dspNY »

Probably too optimistic for Sanders. NBC wants a horse race and they ensured it with this poll. Clinton's lead is probably between 6-10 points. Clinton leads by 17 with voters who have already voted and that will make up at least 60% of the voters so this 2 point margin doesn't make a lot of sense.

By the way, the general election is a landslide in California (Clinton +24)
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2016, 04:11:21 pm »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.
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cxs018
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« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2016, 04:14:00 pm »

Let the unskewing begin!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2016, 04:14:23 pm »

Dayum
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2016, 04:16:25 pm »

Dayum

It's gonna be a photo finish, which sucks for us easterners because by the time California gets called its gonna be well into Wednesday.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2016, 04:16:49 pm »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.

That's why the poll is too optimistic towards Sanders. No way does he lead with Hispanic voters there
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2016, 04:18:09 pm »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.

I'll believe it when I see it. I don't see any reason why California Hispanics will like Sanders so much more than their counterparts in Texas and Arizona.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2016, 04:21:00 pm »

^^ Sanders didn't compete in Texas, and there was legitimate voter disenfranchisement in Arizona. I don't think either is a good parallel to here.  That being said, if Sanders wins the state, I expect him to win among whites as well.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2016, 04:24:03 pm »

And this is entirely before the Jerry Brown endorsement. Not that it will change much but in a close race it can make a difference.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2016, 04:26:58 pm »

^^ Sanders didn't compete in Texas, and there was legitimate voter disenfranchisement in Arizona.

What's voter disenfranchisement has to do with Sanders' poor performance among Hispanics?
If anything it's Clinton who should complain.
And Sanders lost Hispanics in a landslide even where he competed (Florida, New York).
He only won them in Illinois because of Rham's antagonism with the community.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2016, 04:28:40 pm »

^^ Sanders didn't compete in Texas, and there was legitimate voter disenfranchisement in Arizona.

What's voter disenfranchisement has to do with Sanders' poor performance among Hispanics?
If anything it's Clinton who should complain.
And Sanders lost Hispanics in a landslide even where he competed (Florida, New York).
He only won them in Illinois because of Rham's antagonism with the community.

Both NY & FL were closed primaries, I do think the surge in younger voters helps Sanders. Young latinos may be helping his numbers with the group overall.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2016, 04:30:12 pm »

deflect deflect deflect. Nobody complained about closed primaries being "undemocratic" before this election. Any problems in Arizona were problems because the state government ed up, not because nefarious Clinton actions.
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cxs018
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« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2016, 04:31:03 pm »

Img
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2016, 04:32:46 pm »

deflect deflect deflect. Nobody complained about closed primaries being "undemocratic" before this election. Any problems in Arizona were problems because the state government ed up, not because nefarious Clinton actions.

I never said they were nefarious clinton actions; all I said was there was voter disenfranchisement in the state. It's perfectly possible that the result would be better for Sanders if more polling places were avaliable.
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2016, 04:33:15 pm »

The "already voted" numbers are good.
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dspNY
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« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2016, 04:34:14 pm »

The "already voted" numbers are good.

They matter more than the top line and I think her lead is wider than the 17 point margin NBC presents here because the mail in ballots are skewing greatly older and more Democratic/less independent
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2016, 04:34:46 pm »

Let the unskewing begin!
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2016, 04:34:56 pm »

The "already voted" numbers are good.

In 2008. 41% of the primary voters voted early/absentee so it should be a big chunk.
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○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
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« Reply #20 on: June 01, 2016, 04:35:12 pm »

Among those who already voted, Clinton leads 58 to 41.

Hillary always does better with early voters. Even in Oregon, where it was all by mail.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #21 on: June 01, 2016, 04:37:22 pm »

Among those who already voted, Clinton leads 58 to 41.

Hillary always does better with early voters. Even in Oregon, where it was all by mail.

Yeah but 41% of primary goers in 2008 voted early. If she wins early votes by 17 points and breaks even on election day, she wins.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #22 on: June 01, 2016, 04:37:52 pm »

Let the unskewing begin!

I dont see any unskewing, but the two of you continue to sh**t post as usual.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: June 01, 2016, 04:38:23 pm »

Is it okay to at least say this is an outlier?

It also shows Kamala Harris up 18 points which, while she's been up the entire race, she hasn't been up by that much in most recent polls.
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dspNY
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« Reply #24 on: June 01, 2016, 04:39:44 pm »

Among those who already voted, Clinton leads 58 to 41.

Hillary always does better with early voters. Even in Oregon, where it was all by mail.

Sanders actually won the early mail in voters in Oregon by about 5 and won the state by 12. This time Hillary is winning them by 17 and 60% of the ballots will be mailed in so it is hard to see that margin dropping to 2 with a state as big as CA. I think NBC is trying to make it a horse race when in reality Clinton leads by high single digits, which I expect the Field Poll to show when it comes out
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