Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 24, 2019, 03:12:55 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 Print
Author Topic: CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2  (Read 7242 times)
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: June 01, 2016, 04:43:46 pm »

^^ Sanders didn't compete in Texas, and there was legitimate voter disenfranchisement in Arizona.

What's voter disenfranchisement has to do with Sanders' poor performance among Hispanics?
If anything it's Clinton who should complain.
And Sanders lost Hispanics in a landslide even where he competed (Florida, New York).
He only won them in Illinois because of Rham's antagonism with the community.

Both NY & FL were closed primaries, I do think the surge in younger voters helps Sanders.

And if they were open Sanders would have won them, huh?
The level of delusion runs strong among Berniebots.

No, but they would have been a lot closer. Especially in NY, where the deadline for an existing registered voter to change to DEM was before the first democratic debate.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,832
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 01, 2016, 04:43:55 pm »

I could see this being a close race, but some of the subsamples do look a bit off, other than just the Anglo/Latino numbers.

Bay Area 56-42 Clinton, but LA County 54-40 Clinton?

I would imagine the Bay Area being a bit closer and LA County to be more heavily Clinton.



Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 01, 2016, 04:45:26 pm »

I could see this being a close race, but some of the subsamples do look a bit off, other than just the Anglo/Latino numbers.

Bay Area 56-42 Clinton, but LA County 54-40 Clinton?

I would imagine the Bay Area being a bit closer and LA County to be more heavily Clinton.





If those are right, how is this a 2 point race? Most of the Democratic electorate is in those 2 parts of the state (in fact most of the voters). Orange County and San Diego would have to be at least 60-40 for Sanders to get a 2 point race
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,745
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 01, 2016, 04:49:11 pm »

^^ Sanders didn't compete in Texas, and there was legitimate voter disenfranchisement in Arizona.

What's voter disenfranchisement has to do with Sanders' poor performance among Hispanics?
If anything it's Clinton who should complain.
And Sanders lost Hispanics in a landslide even where he competed (Florida, New York).
He only won them in Illinois because of Rham's antagonism with the community.

Both NY & FL were closed primaries, I do think the surge in younger voters helps Sanders.

And if they were open Sanders would have won them, huh?
The level of delusion runs strong among Berniebots.

No, but they would have been a lot closer. Especially in NY, where the deadline for an existing registered voter to change to DEM was before the first democratic debate.

Excuses, excuses. In Texas Sanders didn't compete, in Florida and New York it was the closed primaries, etc, etc.
The cold hard reality is that Sanders' appeal among minorities is limited and I don't see any evidence why California would be any different.

BTW, several New York polls actually showed Sanders winning Hispanics by double digits. We all know what happened in reality.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 01, 2016, 04:51:17 pm »

^^ Sanders didn't compete in Texas, and there was legitimate voter disenfranchisement in Arizona.

What's voter disenfranchisement has to do with Sanders' poor performance among Hispanics?
If anything it's Clinton who should complain.
And Sanders lost Hispanics in a landslide even where he competed (Florida, New York).
He only won them in Illinois because of Rham's antagonism with the community.

Both NY & FL were closed primaries, I do think the surge in younger voters helps Sanders.

And if they were open Sanders would have won them, huh?
The level of delusion runs strong among Berniebots.

No, but they would have been a lot closer. Especially in NY, where the deadline for an existing registered voter to change to DEM was before the first democratic debate.

Excuses, excuses. In Texas Sanders didn't compete, in Florida and New York it was the closed primaries, etc, etc.
The cold hard reality is that Sanders' appeal among minorities is limited and I don't see any evidence why California would be any different.

BTW, several New York polls actually showed Sanders winning Hispanics by double digits. We all know what happened in reality.

Are you seriously denying that NY would have been closer if it was semi-open like CA is and had a more lenient party change deadline? You are beyond delusional.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,679


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 01, 2016, 04:55:24 pm »

If NY had early voting, vote by mail, more lenient party change rules, and a semi-open primary yes there's no doubt it would've been closer. The deadline to change parties in NY was in Oct while in Cali in May.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,745
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 01, 2016, 04:58:03 pm »

Are you seriously denying that NY would have been closer if it was semi-open like CA is and had a more lenient party change deadline? You are beyond delusional.

We aren't talking about the overall result here, we are talking about Hispanics.

If NY had early voting, vote by mail, more lenient party change rules, and a semi-open primary yes there's no doubt it would've been closer. The deadline to change parties in NY was in Oct while in Cali in May.

And if I was born rich and handsome I would be George Clooney.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,832
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 01, 2016, 05:02:58 pm »

I could see this being a close race, but some of the subsamples do look a bit off, other than just the Anglo/Latino numbers.

Bay Area 56-42 Clinton, but LA County 54-40 Clinton?

I would imagine the Bay Area being a bit closer and LA County to be more heavily Clinton.





If those are right, how is this a 2 point race? Most of the Democratic electorate is in those 2 parts of the state (in fact most of the voters). Orange County and San Diego would have to be at least 60-40 for Sanders to get a 2 point race

Poll shows Inland/Valley 54-44 Bernie and Coastal 58-36 Bernie.

My theory has been for a few weeks that you will see a massive Obama '08 to Bernie '16 swing in many smaller Northern California counties, similar to what you saw in Oregon in May, as well as a significant drop in Hillary support in Central Valley areas, including Sacramento & Fresno.

Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,490


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 01, 2016, 05:04:02 pm »

I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,745
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 01, 2016, 05:05:58 pm »

I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

That's true. Remember what happened with the Harris/Cooley race.
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,490


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: June 01, 2016, 05:06:23 pm »


Well then I think we have different definitions of unskewing. I'm trying to contribute however, unlike you.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: June 01, 2016, 05:06:31 pm »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,832
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: June 01, 2016, 05:09:10 pm »

I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

There are still mail in ballots being counted in Oregon and the election was 15 days ago...

Although not a close election at all, still unfortunately it is the downside of making it easier to vote by mail. Sad
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: June 01, 2016, 05:09:53 pm »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Sanders didn't compete in Texas precisely because the Latino population backed Hillary big-time there and he couldn't move them
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,832
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: June 01, 2016, 05:11:18 pm »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Sanders didn't compete in Texas precisely because the Latino population backed Hillary big-time there and he couldn't move them

He didn't compete in Texas as well because there were a ton of other states voting, including some much more favorable and it costs a ton of money to compete in the air wars in Texas.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: June 01, 2016, 05:17:15 pm »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.



Looks like Hillary is in trouble. Can't wait for next Tuesday.
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,490


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: June 01, 2016, 05:29:44 pm »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.



Looks like Hillary is in trouble. Can't wait for next Tuesday.


I mean, shes not. She's securing the nomination on Tuesday though so you have that to look forward to.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 01, 2016, 05:32:35 pm »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.



Looks like Hillary is in trouble. Can't wait for next Tuesday.


I mean, shes not. She's securing the nomination on Tuesday though so you have that to look forward to.

She has a chance of losing the largest and most diverse Democratic electorate to a democratic socialist from a tiny, very white state. That would be an embarrassing way to end the primary season and her polling bounce could be in jeopardy if Sanders touts it as a victory for his campaign and doesn't suspend. We know she's going to secure the nomination, what we don't know is how much she benefits from that if she loses the largest state in the country (I still think she'll win, but hypothetically).
Logged
Chief Justice Keef
etr906
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,066
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: June 01, 2016, 05:39:16 pm »

Interesting stuff. Clinton leads by 17 among those who have already voted, but Bernie leads by 1 among a wider electorate of voters.
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,084
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: June 01, 2016, 05:41:00 pm »

Color me surprised, this could actually end up quite close. I don't think Sanders will win, but I'll be impressed if it's actually a 2-point race.
Logged
Fusionmunster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,490


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: June 01, 2016, 05:41:35 pm »
« Edited: June 01, 2016, 05:43:57 pm by Fusionmunster »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.



Looks like Hillary is in trouble. Can't wait for next Tuesday.


I mean, shes not. She's securing the nomination on Tuesday though so you have that to look forward to.

She has a chance of losing the largest and most diverse Democratic electorate to a democratic socialist from a tiny, very white state. That would be an embarrassing way to end the primary season and her polling bounce could be in jeopardy if Sanders touts it as a victory for his campaign and doesn't suspend. We know she's going to secure the nomination, what we don't know is how much she benefits from that if she loses the largest state in the country (I still think she'll win, but hypothetically).

If California is as close as this polls shows, Sanders won't be able to declare victory on Tuesday. Hillary however will, it doesn't matter.

Edit: However, even if Sanders loses California, he could still not concede. He's going to win the Dakotas and Montana. He could claim that as enough of a reason to stay in till the convention.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,741
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: June 01, 2016, 06:54:48 pm »

I seriously doubt it will be this close, but we shall see.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,832
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: June 01, 2016, 07:00:39 pm »


[/quote] Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.



[/quote]

Agreed....

Just as "Asian-Americans" might vote very differently in the cities of Cupertino (Heavily Chinese-Americans) and Garden Grove (Heavily Vietnamese-American), let alone the huge Iranian-American community in Metro LA.

I suspect, and might well be wrong, that not only is there an age-income-regional scenario in California, but also a 2nd generation Latino population in SoCal where the Central American community (~600k) fleeing political violence in Central America in the '70s/80s, is living, working, and closely connected with a similar population from heavily indigenous states like Oaxaca and Guerrero in Mexico.

Not only do these communities come from regions/countries where there has been a recent history of struggle against extremely repressive, and even Fascist political structures, but also the parents of the millennial generation remember the mass deportation policies of the Bill Clinton Administration, that disproportionately targeted Central Americans in the '90s AND see a similar type of policy under Obama and what many consider to be his designated successor Hillary Clinton.

Note that this could not only explain some of the polling discrepancy in LA County, but also in places like Salinas/Watsonville/Fresno, where Central Americans are now surpassing Mexican-Americans working in the "pastures of plenty" that is California.

So yeah... will be interesting to look at precinct returns and compare from Pico Union/ McArthur Park (LA) to East LA and some areas in the Central Valley.

Reality is that in the event Hillary wins the Democratic nomination, she's going to have a hard time persuading working-class Latinos to register and turn out to vote when they see Democrat after Democrat making promises and yet not delivering, while deportations that "the Clinton's" have supported over the years are still continuing, even in what should be an extremely favorable environment after all of the hate speech that Trump has been spouting from the beginning to get his foot in the door in a long-shot Rep primary run.



Logged
psychprofessor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,073


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: June 01, 2016, 07:04:46 pm »
« Edited: June 01, 2016, 07:11:35 pm by psychprofessor »

I don't get it...Sanders needed to win this state 80/20 to put a dent in the pledged delegate lead. Who cares about who wins the state at this point? It always has been about delegates and Clinton will secure the nomination after polls close in NJ.

There will be no more rallies after next Tuesday. Sanders needs to consider this: if he damages the Democratic party by continuing his campaign, I wouldn't be shocked to see someone challenge him in 2018. I also wouldn't be shocked, if the Democrats re-take the Senate, to see them marginalize Sanders and treat him as an Independent.

He was given the opportunity to run as a Democrat. He has, and he has lost. If he continues this campaign after Tuesday it will say more about his ego than his principles.

If Sanders truly cared about the Democratic party, defeating Trump and solidifying his legacy, he will concede the race on Tuesday night or Wednesday and wholeheartedly throw his support behind Hillary.

Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,741
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: June 01, 2016, 07:09:19 pm »

Sanders desperately needs symbolic victories because he can't win actual ones.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC