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Author Topic: CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2  (Read 7240 times)
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« Reply #75 on: June 03, 2016, 12:56:44 pm »
« edited: June 03, 2016, 01:04:42 pm by Sbane »

I hate to break it to you guys but Clinton will win with almost double digit margins.

Do you have any regional/county predictions or is this just a statement of perceived fact?


I basically agree with this map made by Holmes in another thread. I would only disagree with Napa County. As for specific counties, I see San Francisco going to Sanders by about 5-10 points, with Alameda and Santa Clara going for Clinton by similar margins. San Mateo, Marin and Contra Costa will be closer but should be Clinton wins. The San Joaquin Valley will also go for Clinton but not by 2008 margins but still solid margins in Fresno and Kern. Sacramento will be close but I still see Clinton winning. The Sacramento Valley should be won by Sanders but not by huge margins (with the exception of Butte and Yolo which should be blowouts). Sanders wins the mountains and north coast by comfortable margins.

The central coast is a little tough. I'm pretty torn on Monterey County but in any case it should be close. Santa Cruz is an obvious Sanders win along with San Luis Obispo. He should also win Santa Barbara but it will be close. Clinton wins Ventura county by about a 3-7 point margin. Los Angeles should be about 10-15 points. Orange should be about 5-10 points and San Diego should be about 3-7 points. The Inland Empire I also see at about a 5-10 point Clinton margin. Overall I am thinking Clinton by about 5-10 though looking at the latest Field poll, closer to 5 might be a safer bet. I trust the Field poll a lot and if they are finding a close race, then maybe there is something to it.


Cool--- thks for posting!

Overall, the logic sounds pretty solid, although obviously California presents some significant challenges predicting outcomes compared to most states, because of the rapid demographic and population changes in just a few election cycles, and is a difficult state to model based upon election results elsewhere in the primary season.

It's pretty close to the map I have, although I see Marin tilting towards Bernie, despite Hillary improvements among upper income Anglos from '08 to '16 in West Coast large cities. One of the things I'm wrestling with is how higher-income voters on paper, that still have smaller amounts of disposable income because of high cost of living, in places like the Bay Area are going to vote, many of whom have adult children still living with them because of the housing crisis.

In a close election/ narrow Bernie win, I could see Contra Costa and Santa Clara flip from Hillary '08 counties and think Alameda will be an Obama > Hillary flip regardless but with tight margins.

Not seeing Monterey County flipping from '08 to '16, but if it does, then Hillary will have some significant problems with margins in the Central Valley (Fresno, Kern, etc...) since Salinas areas will account for >40% of the vote.

San Diego/Orange will likely be key indicators of a potential upset, the former with a large military/veteran component, student population, and within the city of San Diego a large "very liberal" Democratic electorate, and the latter a test of Sanders ability to dominate among voters <45 to offset older and wealthier OC Dems. Clinton beat Obama by 18% in '08, and other than Riverside/San Bernadino was her 3rd best county in the state, with the exception of a handful of small rural counties and medium-size Central Valley pop centers (Fresno/Kern in '08).



I agree that San Diego and Orange County will be the bellwethers. Perhaps the average of those two counties. The Inland Empire I think is a little more unpredictable. Those areas haven't been doing well as of late and are susceptible to Bernie's message but they also have a lot of Hispanics and Blacks. I think Orange County and the IE ending up voting similarly.

You may be right about Monterey County. I may be underestimating the Salinas/Salinas Valley vote and overestimating the Monterey liberal vote. That being said the margins will be lower than Clinton'08. Especially in the central valley because like the IE, they will be susceptible to Bernie's message due to local economic conditions. I don't think that will be enough to overcome the demographic problems Bernie has there though.

I am fairly certain about Santa Clara County voting for Hillary, perhaps by even a greater margin than Alameda. Alameda County has Berkeley and the white people who live in Oakland are also major Bernie supporters. There is no similar area in Santa Clara County, including Stanford. Bernie might win Stanford but it won't be by the same margins as Berkeley. Moreover, the areas surrounding it are not going to be comfortable with Bernie's message. The caveat of course being those with incomes in the 100-150k range may be more susceptible to Bernie's message in the Bay Area than in other places due to the high cost of living.

As an aside, how the Hispanic and especially the Asian vote go will make a huge difference. At this point I am assuming Asians vote 60% + for Hillary and Hispanics around 55% or so. Like you said, we don't have good exit polling from nearby states to validate that so we are flying blind in that regard. I am especially unsure how the Asian and Hispanic vote goes in the Bay Area. It's possible they vote Sanders but the rest of the state votes differently.
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« Reply #76 on: June 03, 2016, 12:59:44 pm »

Aren't Asians the most Sanders-friendly minority group due to their high education levels?
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« Reply #77 on: June 03, 2016, 01:03:48 pm »

Aren't Asians the most Sanders-friendly minority group due to their high education levels?

I don't think Bernie necessarily wins those with high education levels.....Anyways, Asians are very incumbent/establishment friendly. There will be a huge split among generations as well as immigrant/native born voters. It's hard to gauge how that will play out.
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« Reply #78 on: June 03, 2016, 07:17:01 pm »

I'm still betting on a 4-7% margin for Clinton like I have been for the last couple of months.


Democrats: Bernie in Green, Hillary in Red

Hillary will win by 4-7%



From a few weeks ago. I may change it if I see any more regional polling.
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« Reply #79 on: June 03, 2016, 08:32:37 pm »

I hate to break it to you guys but Clinton will win with almost double digit margins.

Do you have any regional/county predictions or is this just a statement of perceived fact?


I basically agree with this map made by Holmes in another thread. I would only disagree with Napa County. As for specific counties, I see San Francisco going to Sanders by about 5-10 points, with Alameda and Santa Clara going for Clinton by similar margins. San Mateo, Marin and Contra Costa will be closer but should be Clinton wins. The San Joaquin Valley will also go for Clinton but not by 2008 margins but still solid margins in Fresno and Kern. Sacramento will be close but I still see Clinton winning. The Sacramento Valley should be won by Sanders but not by huge margins (with the exception of Butte and Yolo which should be blowouts). Sanders wins the mountains and north coast by comfortable margins.

The central coast is a little tough. I'm pretty torn on Monterey County but in any case it should be close. Santa Cruz is an obvious Sanders win along with San Luis Obispo. He should also win Santa Barbara but it will be close. Clinton wins Ventura county by about a 3-7 point margin. Los Angeles should be about 10-15 points. Orange should be about 5-10 points and San Diego should be about 3-7 points. The Inland Empire I also see at about a 5-10 point Clinton margin. Overall I am thinking Clinton by about 5-10 though looking at the latest Field poll, closer to 5 might be a safer bet. I trust the Field poll a lot and if they are finding a close race, then maybe there is something to it.


Cool--- thks for posting!

Overall, the logic sounds pretty solid, although obviously California presents some significant challenges predicting outcomes compared to most states, because of the rapid demographic and population changes in just a few election cycles, and is a difficult state to model based upon election results elsewhere in the primary season.

It's pretty close to the map I have, although I see Marin tilting towards Bernie, despite Hillary improvements among upper income Anglos from '08 to '16 in West Coast large cities. One of the things I'm wrestling with is how higher-income voters on paper, that still have smaller amounts of disposable income because of high cost of living, in places like the Bay Area are going to vote, many of whom have adult children still living with them because of the housing crisis.

In a close election/ narrow Bernie win, I could see Contra Costa and Santa Clara flip from Hillary '08 counties and think Alameda will be an Obama > Hillary flip regardless but with tight margins.

Not seeing Monterey County flipping from '08 to '16, but if it does, then Hillary will have some significant problems with margins in the Central Valley (Fresno, Kern, etc...) since Salinas areas will account for >40% of the vote.

San Diego/Orange will likely be key indicators of a potential upset, the former with a large military/veteran component, student population, and within the city of San Diego a large "very liberal" Democratic electorate, and the latter a test of Sanders ability to dominate among voters <45 to offset older and wealthier OC Dems. Clinton beat Obama by 18% in '08, and other than Riverside/San Bernadino was her 3rd best county in the state, with the exception of a handful of small rural counties and medium-size Central Valley pop centers (Fresno/Kern in '08).



I agree that San Diego and Orange County will be the bellwethers. Perhaps the average of those two counties. The Inland Empire I think is a little more unpredictable. Those areas haven't been doing well as of late and are susceptible to Bernie's message but they also have a lot of Hispanics and Blacks. I think Orange County and the IE ending up voting similarly.

You may be right about Monterey County. I may be underestimating the Salinas/Salinas Valley vote and overestimating the Monterey liberal vote. That being said the margins will be lower than Clinton'08. Especially in the central valley because like the IE, they will be susceptible to Bernie's message due to local economic conditions. I don't think that will be enough to overcome the demographic problems Bernie has there though.

I am fairly certain about Santa Clara County voting for Hillary, perhaps by even a greater margin than Alameda. Alameda County has Berkeley and the white people who live in Oakland are also major Bernie supporters. There is no similar area in Santa Clara County, including Stanford. Bernie might win Stanford but it won't be by the same margins as Berkeley. Moreover, the areas surrounding it are not going to be comfortable with Bernie's message. The caveat of course being those with incomes in the 100-150k range may be more susceptible to Bernie's message in the Bay Area than in other places due to the high cost of living.

As an aside, how the Hispanic and especially the Asian vote go will make a huge difference. At this point I am assuming Asians vote 60% + for Hillary and Hispanics around 55% or so. Like you said, we don't have good exit polling from nearby states to validate that so we are flying blind in that regard. I am especially unsure how the Asian and Hispanic vote goes in the Bay Area. It's possible they vote Sanders but the rest of the state votes differently.

So this poll states a 56-42 Hillary win in the Bay Area, and to compare to '08 when Obama lost the state by 8.3% but won the Bay Area 47.9-47.5 (Am basically rolling 7/9 Metro counties and excluding Napa and Sonoma).

In order for this poll to make sense, regardless of MOE on regional sub-samples it makes absolutely no sense, where the Bay Area accounts for ~25% of the state primary votes, and even less sense if we broaden the Bay Area to include counties like Sonoma and Santa Cruz. The only way to explain it would be an extraordinary anti-Hillary swing in SoCal, regardless of a collapse in her support in rural Northern/Coastal/Mountain NorCal.

Still wrestling with the Bay Area, but if we look at Santa Clara County and potential swings, Obama's best cities was Palo Alto, and NW Santa Clara County (Los Altos and Mountain View) as well as some very wealthy white liberal towns like Los Gatos and Saratoga.

Hillary's three best cities were Milipitas (62% Asian-American), which has a rapidly growing Asian-American population, particularly Taiwanese-Americans and Indian-Americans, and is relatively "affordable" by Bay Area standards. Gilroy at the Southern end of Silicon Valley but more heavily agriculture oriented (60% Latino and could potentially be an indicator of similar areas), and then lastly San Jose (50% of the Dem Prim vote in Santa Clara County in '08), where Obama garnered barely 36% of the vote.

San Jose is 32% Asian (with over 10% of the population Vietnamese-Americans), and 33% Latino-Americans, and a fairly low 65+ population with an extremely large younger electorate, that regardless of ethnicity appear to be a strong Bernie voting block.

I think the 2016 Democratic Primary precinct swing map will be fascinating in the Bay Area in particular, because what I suspect we might see is more of a leveling out of the map because of age trumping ethnicity in many areas.

In San Francisco, the Hillary coalition was heavily based upon a coalition of Asian-Americans , particularly in the Western part of the city (Sunset District, Ocean Beach, and Chinatown), combined with more of a traditional "white working-class" population in South SF, as well as SOMA precincts, with Obama dominating in Height/Castro/Noe-Valley/Mission/Pacific-Heights-Marina, as well as historically AA areas like Hunters Point-Bayview.

In Santa Clara County, Hillary will likely over-perform in wealthier and Anglo areas like Mtn View, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, but see a significant swing against her in San Jose, Sunnyvale, and Miliptas, and heading over to the East Bay Contra Costa and Alameda are likely to see some dramatic shifts as well, not only in the flatland, but also the Oakland and Berkeley Hills and even further inland into places like Concord and Walnut Creek.

If Bernie wins California, Cupertino will likely flip as a broader representation of Asian-American voters in Silicon Valley as a 63% Asian-American city and Global HQ of Apple, where Hillary only won 51% of the Primary vote in '08, despite winning the county by 13% in '08.

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« Reply #80 on: June 03, 2016, 09:18:51 pm »

Aren't Asians the most Sanders-friendly minority group due to their high education levels?

I don't think Bernie necessarily wins those with high education levels.....Anyways, Asians are very incumbent/establishment friendly. There will be a huge split among generations as well as immigrant/native born voters. It's hard to gauge how that will play out.

I thought people with higher education levels favored Clinton?
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« Reply #81 on: June 04, 2016, 02:44:35 am »

I hate to break it to you guys but Clinton will win with almost double digit margins.

Do you have any regional/county predictions or is this just a statement of perceived fact?


I basically agree with this map made by Holmes in another thread. I would only disagree with Napa County. As for specific counties, I see San Francisco going to Sanders by about 5-10 points, with Alameda and Santa Clara going for Clinton by similar margins. San Mateo, Marin and Contra Costa will be closer but should be Clinton wins. The San Joaquin Valley will also go for Clinton but not by 2008 margins but still solid margins in Fresno and Kern. Sacramento will be close but I still see Clinton winning. The Sacramento Valley should be won by Sanders but not by huge margins (with the exception of Butte and Yolo which should be blowouts). Sanders wins the mountains and north coast by comfortable margins.

The central coast is a little tough. I'm pretty torn on Monterey County but in any case it should be close. Santa Cruz is an obvious Sanders win along with San Luis Obispo. He should also win Santa Barbara but it will be close. Clinton wins Ventura county by about a 3-7 point margin. Los Angeles should be about 10-15 points. Orange should be about 5-10 points and San Diego should be about 3-7 points. The Inland Empire I also see at about a 5-10 point Clinton margin. Overall I am thinking Clinton by about 5-10 though looking at the latest Field poll, closer to 5 might be a safer bet. I trust the Field poll a lot and if they are finding a close race, then maybe there is something to it.


Cool--- thks for posting!

Overall, the logic sounds pretty solid, although obviously California presents some significant challenges predicting outcomes compared to most states, because of the rapid demographic and population changes in just a few election cycles, and is a difficult state to model based upon election results elsewhere in the primary season.

It's pretty close to the map I have, although I see Marin tilting towards Bernie, despite Hillary improvements among upper income Anglos from '08 to '16 in West Coast large cities. One of the things I'm wrestling with is how higher-income voters on paper, that still have smaller amounts of disposable income because of high cost of living, in places like the Bay Area are going to vote, many of whom have adult children still living with them because of the housing crisis.

In a close election/ narrow Bernie win, I could see Contra Costa and Santa Clara flip from Hillary '08 counties and think Alameda will be an Obama > Hillary flip regardless but with tight margins.

Not seeing Monterey County flipping from '08 to '16, but if it does, then Hillary will have some significant problems with margins in the Central Valley (Fresno, Kern, etc...) since Salinas areas will account for >40% of the vote.

San Diego/Orange will likely be key indicators of a potential upset, the former with a large military/veteran component, student population, and within the city of San Diego a large "very liberal" Democratic electorate, and the latter a test of Sanders ability to dominate among voters <45 to offset older and wealthier OC Dems. Clinton beat Obama by 18% in '08, and other than Riverside/San Bernadino was her 3rd best county in the state, with the exception of a handful of small rural counties and medium-size Central Valley pop centers (Fresno/Kern in '08).



I agree that San Diego and Orange County will be the bellwethers. Perhaps the average of those two counties. The Inland Empire I think is a little more unpredictable. Those areas haven't been doing well as of late and are susceptible to Bernie's message but they also have a lot of Hispanics and Blacks. I think Orange County and the IE ending up voting similarly.

You may be right about Monterey County. I may be underestimating the Salinas/Salinas Valley vote and overestimating the Monterey liberal vote. That being said the margins will be lower than Clinton'08. Especially in the central valley because like the IE, they will be susceptible to Bernie's message due to local economic conditions. I don't think that will be enough to overcome the demographic problems Bernie has there though.

I am fairly certain about Santa Clara County voting for Hillary, perhaps by even a greater margin than Alameda. Alameda County has Berkeley and the white people who live in Oakland are also major Bernie supporters. There is no similar area in Santa Clara County, including Stanford. Bernie might win Stanford but it won't be by the same margins as Berkeley. Moreover, the areas surrounding it are not going to be comfortable with Bernie's message. The caveat of course being those with incomes in the 100-150k range may be more susceptible to Bernie's message in the Bay Area than in other places due to the high cost of living.

As an aside, how the Hispanic and especially the Asian vote go will make a huge difference. At this point I am assuming Asians vote 60% + for Hillary and Hispanics around 55% or so. Like you said, we don't have good exit polling from nearby states to validate that so we are flying blind in that regard. I am especially unsure how the Asian and Hispanic vote goes in the Bay Area. It's possible they vote Sanders but the rest of the state votes differently.

So this poll states a 56-42 Hillary win in the Bay Area, and to compare to '08 when Obama lost the state by 8.3% but won the Bay Area 47.9-47.5 (Am basically rolling 7/9 Metro counties and excluding Napa and Sonoma).

In order for this poll to make sense, regardless of MOE on regional sub-samples it makes absolutely no sense, where the Bay Area accounts for ~25% of the state primary votes, and even less sense if we broaden the Bay Area to include counties like Sonoma and Santa Cruz. The only way to explain it would be an extraordinary anti-Hillary swing in SoCal, regardless of a collapse in her support in rural Northern/Coastal/Mountain NorCal.

Still wrestling with the Bay Area, but if we look at Santa Clara County and potential swings, Obama's best cities was Palo Alto, and NW Santa Clara County (Los Altos and Mountain View) as well as some very wealthy white liberal towns like Los Gatos and Saratoga.

Hillary's three best cities were Milipitas (62% Asian-American), which has a rapidly growing Asian-American population, particularly Taiwanese-Americans and Indian-Americans, and is relatively "affordable" by Bay Area standards. Gilroy at the Southern end of Silicon Valley but more heavily agriculture oriented (60% Latino and could potentially be an indicator of similar areas), and then lastly San Jose (50% of the Dem Prim vote in Santa Clara County in '08), where Obama garnered barely 36% of the vote.

San Jose is 32% Asian (with over 10% of the population Vietnamese-Americans), and 33% Latino-Americans, and a fairly low 65+ population with an extremely large younger electorate, that regardless of ethnicity appear to be a strong Bernie voting block.

I think the 2016 Democratic Primary precinct swing map will be fascinating in the Bay Area in particular, because what I suspect we might see is more of a leveling out of the map because of age trumping ethnicity in many areas.

In San Francisco, the Hillary coalition was heavily based upon a coalition of Asian-Americans , particularly in the Western part of the city (Sunset District, Ocean Beach, and Chinatown), combined with more of a traditional "white working-class" population in South SF, as well as SOMA precincts, with Obama dominating in Height/Castro/Noe-Valley/Mission/Pacific-Heights-Marina, as well as historically AA areas like Hunters Point-Bayview.

In Santa Clara County, Hillary will likely over-perform in wealthier and Anglo areas like Mtn View, Saratoga, and Los Gatos, but see a significant swing against her in San Jose, Sunnyvale, and Miliptas, and heading over to the East Bay Contra Costa and Alameda are likely to see some dramatic shifts as well, not only in the flatland, but also the Oakland and Berkeley Hills and even further inland into places like Concord and Walnut Creek.

If Bernie wins California, Cupertino will likely flip as a broader representation of Asian-American voters in Silicon Valley as a 63% Asian-American city and Global HQ of Apple, where Hillary only won 51% of the Primary vote in '08, despite winning the county by 13% in '08.



Yup, should be some decent swings to Hillary in the wealthier cities, but places like Palo Alto are also some of the liberal areas of the Bay Area, and Bernie does well in liberal areas. In places like Berkeley, Oakland and San Francisco I am very certain at least the white people there will be voting heavily for Sanders. I am not so sure about Palo Alto, Mountain View, Menlo Park etc. As for places like Milpitas, Fremont and San Jose, how they vote could very well determine how the state votes. If they go as strongly for Hillary as they did in 2008, she might be able to build on her margins. I don't think it will happen though, although I expect her to win all those places. As Nate Silver wrote today, the Hispanic vote will be key, and I would add the Asian vote along with that.
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« Reply #82 on: June 04, 2016, 10:10:39 pm »

Sanders needs to consider this: if he damages the Democratic party by continuing his campaign, I wouldn't be shocked to see someone challenge him in 2018.

And win like 5% of the vote.

Hmm, I wouldn't be so sure. If Sanders does damage to Clinton and somehow hands Trump the presidency, I think a lot of Democrats would be on board behind the scenes to take out Bernie in Vermont.

So what? The man is more beloved than any other politician in the state and it's not even close. There is zero chance of him ever losing an election in Vermont.  You did see him deny Clinton viability there, right?

It wouldnt be hard to make Sanders remaining years in the Senate miserable you know. Chairmanships and committees? Nope, all gone. Anybit of power and influence hes built up in this party all these years can be easily taken away.

Democratic control of the Senate in a 50/50 or 51/49 scenario (where Clinton picks a Democratic Senator in a red state to be her VP)? Gone. Without committee assignments - which is arguably the only reason an elected independent would affiliate with one of the two parties in the Senate in the first place - he has no reason whatsoever to continue entertaining the notion of propping up a Democratic Senate majority.
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« Reply #83 on: June 04, 2016, 10:26:00 pm »

Uh, guys.  Nobody's touching Bernie in Vermont.  Period.  You can all daydream all you want about the Senate Dems throwing a hissyfit and stripping his committee assignments, but it ain't happening.  The Senate isn't full of disgruntled Atlas posters, you see.

By the way, Sanders already promised months ago to run in all future campaigns as a Democrat and not as an Independent.  Kind of a moot point.
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« Reply #84 on: June 04, 2016, 10:36:17 pm »

Uh, guys.  Nobody's touching Bernie in Vermont.  Period.  You can all daydream all you want about the Senate Dems throwing a hissyfit and stripping his committee assignments, but it ain't happening.  The Senate isn't full of disgruntled Atlas posters, you see.

By the way, Sanders already promised months ago to run in all future campaigns as a Democrat and not as an Independent.  Kind of a moot point.

Exactly.
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« Reply #85 on: June 05, 2016, 04:53:20 pm »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.

Didn't Sanders win hispanics in NV?
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« Reply #86 on: June 05, 2016, 05:09:22 pm »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.

Didn't Sanders win hispanics in NV?

No. The exit poll showed him winning them but actual results showed Clinton winning with more than 60% the Latino heavy precincts.
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« Reply #87 on: June 05, 2016, 08:18:08 pm »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.

Didn't Sanders win hispanics in NV?

No. The exit poll showed him winning them but actual results showed Clinton winning with more than 60% the Latino heavy precincts.

Do you have actual precinct results to back that up, or just blowing hot wind energy from Denmark?
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« Reply #88 on: June 05, 2016, 09:26:10 pm »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.

Didn't Sanders win hispanics in NV?

No. The exit poll showed him winning them but actual results showed Clinton winning with more than 60% the Latino heavy precincts.

Yeah, but the Latinos in those heavily Latino precincts might vote differently than Latinos in general.
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« Reply #89 on: June 05, 2016, 09:26:31 pm »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.

Didn't Sanders win hispanics in NV?

No. The exit poll showed him winning them but actual results showed Clinton winning with more than 60% the Latino heavy precincts.

Do you have actual precinct results to back that up, or just blowing hot wind energy from Denmark?

It should be noted that we only have Nevada entrance polls, not exit polls.
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« Reply #90 on: June 08, 2016, 12:07:34 pm »

Embarrassing miss for Marist.
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« Reply #91 on: June 08, 2016, 12:25:07 pm »

I hate to break it to you guys but Clinton will win with almost double digit margins.

Called it
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« Reply #92 on: June 08, 2016, 12:31:04 pm »

What a lousy poll
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« Reply #93 on: June 08, 2016, 12:57:22 pm »

It's 2016 and polling companies still don't know how to poll Latinos.
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