CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2 (user search)
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  CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2  (Read 16417 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: June 01, 2016, 04:02:02 PM »

Among those who already voted, Clinton leads 58 to 41.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2016, 04:11:21 PM »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2016, 04:16:25 PM »


It's gonna be a photo finish, which sucks for us easterners because by the time California gets called its gonna be well into Wednesday.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2016, 04:24:03 PM »

And this is entirely before the Jerry Brown endorsement. Not that it will change much but in a close race it can make a difference.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2016, 04:34:56 PM »

The "already voted" numbers are good.

In 2008. 41% of the primary voters voted early/absentee so it should be a big chunk.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2016, 04:37:22 PM »

Among those who already voted, Clinton leads 58 to 41.

Hillary always does better with early voters. Even in Oregon, where it was all by mail.

Yeah but 41% of primary goers in 2008 voted early. If she wins early votes by 17 points and breaks even on election day, she wins.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2016, 04:37:52 PM »


I dont see any unskewing, but the two of you continue to sh**t post as usual.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2016, 05:04:02 PM »

I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2016, 05:06:23 PM »


Well then I think we have different definitions of unskewing. I'm trying to contribute however, unlike you.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2016, 05:29:44 PM »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.



Looks like Hillary is in trouble. Can't wait for next Tuesday.


I mean, shes not. She's securing the nomination on Tuesday though so you have that to look forward to.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2016, 05:41:35 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2016, 05:43:57 PM by Fusionmunster »

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.


I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.



Looks like Hillary is in trouble. Can't wait for next Tuesday.


I mean, shes not. She's securing the nomination on Tuesday though so you have that to look forward to.

She has a chance of losing the largest and most diverse Democratic electorate to a democratic socialist from a tiny, very white state. That would be an embarrassing way to end the primary season and her polling bounce could be in jeopardy if Sanders touts it as a victory for his campaign and doesn't suspend. We know she's going to secure the nomination, what we don't know is how much she benefits from that if she loses the largest state in the country (I still think she'll win, but hypothetically).

If California is as close as this polls shows, Sanders won't be able to declare victory on Tuesday. Hillary however will, it doesn't matter.

Edit: However, even if Sanders loses California, he could still not concede. He's going to win the Dakotas and Montana. He could claim that as enough of a reason to stay in till the convention.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2016, 08:41:05 PM »

If anyones interested, the RCP for California in 2008. The only pollster who was close was........SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2016, 09:05:11 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2016, 09:07:12 PM by Fusionmunster »

Sanders needs to consider this: if he damages the Democratic party by continuing his campaign, I wouldn't be shocked to see someone challenge him in 2018.

And win like 5% of the vote.

Hmm, I wouldn't be so sure. If Sanders does damage to Clinton and somehow hands Trump the presidency, I think a lot of Democrats would be on board behind the scenes to take out Bernie in Vermont.

So what? The man is more beloved than any other politician in the state and it's not even close. There is zero chance of him ever losing an election in Vermont.  You did see him deny Clinton viability there, right?

It wouldnt be hard to make Sanders remaining years in the Senate miserable you know. Chairmanships and committees? Nope, all gone. Anybit of power and influence hes built up in this party all these years can be easily taken away.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2016, 09:08:37 PM »

Among those who already voted, Clinton leads 58 to 41.

Hillary always does better with early voters. Even in Oregon, where it was all by mail.

Yeah but 41% of primary goers in 2008 voted early. If she wins early votes by 17 points and breaks even on election day, she wins.

Who says she breaks even on election day? Also, we might not know who wins for a while; there could be a lot of provisional votes, and those will go strongly for Bernie.

Or polling could be like 2008 and SUSA are the only ones who know what there doing. Guess we'll find out June 7th.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2016, 09:13:53 PM »

I hate to break it to you guys but Clinton will win with almost double digit margins.

Do you have any regional/county predictions or is this just a statement of perceived fact?

Hes the guy the Clinton camp pays to rig the machines.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2016, 06:16:54 AM »

I hate to break it to you guys but Clinton will win with almost double digit margins.

Do you have any regional/county predictions or is this just a statement of perceived fact?

Hes the guy the Clinton camp pays to rig the machines.

Oh, come on. You really think I am a Hillary hack? I actually hope she loses in 2020 after the Republicans nominate someone decent. Of course that's a lot to ask for. I am sorry I don't want to join in your socialist revolution lol.

It was my poor attempt at humor, I am a Clinton supporter making a joke about how Bernie supporters claim everything is rigged.
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Fusionmunster
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Posts: 2,483


« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2016, 09:26:31 PM »

So Hillary leads with whites and Sanders leads with Hispanics, that's different.

Didn't Sanders win hispanics in NV?

No. The exit poll showed him winning them but actual results showed Clinton winning with more than 60% the Latino heavy precincts.

Do you have actual precinct results to back that up, or just blowing hot wind energy from Denmark?

It should be noted that we only have Nevada entrance polls, not exit polls.
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