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  CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43
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Author Topic: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43  (Read 2420 times)
dfwlibertylover
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« on: June 02, 2016, 12:07:27 am »
« edited: June 02, 2016, 12:10:09 am by dfwlibertylover »

http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Field-Poll-finds-Clinton-s-California-lead-down-7958398.php

The Field Poll finds a dead heat in California heading into Tuesday's Democratic Primary.
Clinton - 45
Sanders - 43
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2016, 12:17:01 am »

Pretty clear this is going to be a nailbiter now. My Clinton +3 prediction should be quite accurate.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2016, 12:22:59 am »

Field did have the race pretty close two months ago (Clinton +6). Still, it looks like it really could be close. I'm still guessing Clinton by mid-high single digits for now, but if more polls continue to show a near tie, we might actually be in for a photo finish.
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Joshua
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« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2016, 12:23:57 am »

Field had Clinton +6 at the beginning of April, now Clinton +2 now at the beginning of June. Pretty consistent.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2016, 12:27:24 am »

Winning CA would probably be a conciliatory end of this primary season for us Bernie supporters.

Although I doubt he'll actually win it after Jerry Brown's endorsement for Hillary ...

My prediction: 54-46 Hillary.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2016, 12:42:07 am »

Hot Damn. Go Bernie! I don't even care if I lose money on this.
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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2016, 01:49:19 am »

Perhaps this will be closer than we thought. I have a lot of respect for the Field poll but there is a chance they are missing voters who may not speak English. Also who are the undecideds? What percentage of Asians are "undecided"?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2016, 03:05:10 am »

I was planning on studying for finals, but it looks like I have to vote for Hillary now. 
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The love that set me free
BRTD
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2016, 08:42:31 am »

12 undecided? This late?
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2016, 10:01:36 am »

12 undecided? This late?

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf

15% of those who have already voted are undecided.....
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cxs018
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2016, 10:02:42 am »

UNSKEW
N
S
K
E
W
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2016, 10:16:28 am »

12 undecided? This late?

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf

15% of those who have already voted are undecided.....


WTF is wrong with these people?
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2016, 12:08:15 pm »

Interestingly enough, TRUMP is only getting 60% of the R primary vote in this poll. There are 9% undecided though, that should break heavily for him.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2016, 12:30:22 pm »

12 undecided? This late?

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf

15% of those who have already voted are undecided.....


WTF is wrong with these people?

Mostly people who don't want to disclose who they are voting for. Will probably be most prevalent among immigrants....
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hermit
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2016, 03:52:36 pm »

If she doesn't "win" California she'll still win. She'll still be way ahead of Bernie in delegates.

I like that.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2016, 03:56:36 pm »

Her not winning California makes this whole thing an ugly mess, though.
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2016, 06:34:35 pm »

12 undecided? This late?

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf

15% of those who have already voted are undecided.....


WTF is wrong with these people?

Mostly people who don't want to disclose who they are voting for. Will probably be most prevalent among immigrants....

Then why would they agree to participate in the poll?
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2016, 12:37:00 am »

12 undecided? This late?

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf

15% of those who have already voted are undecided.....


WTF is wrong with these people?

Mostly people who don't want to disclose who they are voting for. Will probably be most prevalent among immigrants....

Then why would they agree to participate in the poll?

Excellent point. Why would they then refuse to disclose who they voted for?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2016, 09:40:57 am »

Pretty clear this is going to be a nailbiter now. My Clinton +3 prediction should be quite accurate.

It very well may end up being tight, but you'd think we would've learned by now it's not a rare occurence for primary polls to be significantly off the mark.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2016, 09:41:22 am »

Her not winning California makes this whole thing an ugly mess, though.

In the same way Obama losing South Dakota made things an ugly mess.
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tallguy23
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« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2016, 08:05:51 pm »

I think it'll be Clinton with 52%.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2016, 09:36:19 am »

Yet another gold standard bites the dust, joining Selzer and Marquette. Man, this cycle has not been friendly to the pollsters.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2016, 09:38:54 am »

Pretty clear this is going to be a nailbiter now. My Clinton +3 prediction should be quite accurate.

It very well may end up being tight, but you'd think we would've learned by now it's not a rare occurence for primary polls to be significantly off the mark.

Lesson taught again. Tongue
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morgieb
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2016, 09:42:26 am »

Yet another gold standard bites the dust, joining Selzer and Marquette. Man, this cycle has not been friendly to the pollsters.
What did Marquette predict?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2016, 09:44:47 am »

Yet another gold standard bites the dust, joining Selzer and Marquette. Man, this cycle has not been friendly to the pollsters.
What did Marquette predict?

They did well on the GOP side (Cruz +10) but on the Dem side they had Sanders +4. Selzer was the opposite. They did fairly well on the Dem side (Clinton +3, which was very good if you assume O'Malley voters broke heavily for Sanders when he failed viability, which they did according to all information) but bombed the GOP side (Trump +5)
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