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Author Topic: FL-Mason Dixon: Clinton 45 Trump 42 // Biden 50 Trump 40  (Read 1903 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: June 03, 2016, 06:58:11 am »

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/06/clinton-leads-trump-by-3-in-new-florida-poll-102462
http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000155-1587-dc57-a3ff-9f8fa7160000

Clinton 45
Trump 42
Johnson 6
Undecided 7

« Last Edit: June 03, 2016, 12:27:10 pm by HillOfANight »Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2016, 07:00:57 am »

Ugh, a reminder that we are not going to get the dream scenario of UNCLE JOE vs. TRUMP. Sad
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2016, 07:01:45 am »

1)Mason-Dixon is still in the polling business?

2)Clearly Biden is the most electable Democrat. The superdelegates who care about winning should support him.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2016, 07:08:18 am »

There is no way for Donald Trump to win the without Florida  unless he can win a state that has not gone for a Republican nominee after 1988. That's figuring that he wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2016, 08:34:01 am »


Problems of This Poll

1) overweighted Democrats a bit & underweighted Inependent
DEM 41% REP 37% Ind 22%
But Party Affiliation in April,2016

2) Florida Party Affiliation (April 30, 2016)
http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-monthly-reports/voter-registration-current-by-county/

Total: 12.21 Million
Rep: 4.37 Mil ( 35.8%) | Dem: 4.63 Mil ( 37.9%) | Ind: 2.86 Mil (23.4%)

3) TRUMP beat Hillary of Independent at this time (TRUMP 40% | Hillary 34% )

4) They included Johnson, But not included Jill Stein
If Jill Stein was in the Poll, Hillary's numbers, It was supposed to be at least minus 2%

So actually TRUMP is winning Florida Now.

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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2016, 08:43:33 am »

If there is one state that could end up being Trump's Waterloo, it'll be Florida. His numbers with Hispanics are absolutely abysmal, especially considering the fact that Dole and Bush won the Hispanic vote in Florida. Unlike TX Hispanics, FL Hispanics are trending D fast, which will cause serious problems for the GOP in the future.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2016, 09:23:42 am »

Great news! If Clinton is leading in a Mason Dixon Poll (the pollster of "lolol Romney's gonna win let's stop polling here"), then she's in great shape!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: June 03, 2016, 09:57:55 am »

Polling Biden? Seriously? I thought the nightmare of pollsters pretending Biden was a candidate ended in October. It's getting really old seeing people include other candidates that haven't had a speck of dirt flung at them in an attempt to make Hillary bad.

At this rate, they'll be polling Warren again by August. Roll Eyes
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #8 on: June 03, 2016, 10:01:09 am »

Great news! If Clinton is leading in a Mason Dixon Poll (the pollster of "lolol Romney's gonna win let's stop polling here"), then she's in great shape!

wrrrrrrrong.

Last Florida Poll by Mason-Dixon was in July 2012.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls
Obama was ahead with +1% margin(which was same as final results of Florida)
Mason-Dixon*   7/9 - 7/11   800 LV   3.5   46   45   Obama +1

And as I said above, This time Mason-Dixon Poll
1) Overweighted Democrats, Underweighted Independent voters
2) They included Johnson, but not Jill Stein(which can make minus of Hillary's numbers at least -2%)

« Last Edit: June 03, 2016, 10:05:07 am by StatesPoll »Logged
psychprofessor
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« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2016, 10:01:35 am »

Polling Biden? Seriously? I thought the nightmare of pollsters pretending Biden was a candidate ended in October. It's getting really old seeing people include other candidates that haven't had a speck of dirt flung at them in an attempt to make Hillary bad.

At this rate, they'll be polling Warren again by August. Roll Eyes

Yes, as Warren will be part of the Clinton/Warren ticket :-)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2016, 10:16:20 am »

Great news! If Clinton is leading in a Mason Dixon Poll (the pollster of "lolol Romney's gonna win let's stop polling here"), then she's in great shape!

wrrrrrrrong.

Last Florida Poll by Mason-Dixon was in July 2012.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls
Obama was ahead with +1% margin(which was same as final results of Florida)
Mason-Dixon*   7/9 - 7/11   800 LV   3.5   46   45   Obama +1

And as I said above, This time Mason-Dixon Poll
1) Overweighted Democrats, Underweighted Independent voters
2) They included Johnson, but not Jill Stein(which can make minus of Hillary's numbers at least -2%)



Holy molly you are actually wrong.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-i-4-voters-back-romney-51-45/1258459

The last Mason Dixon poll had Romney up 6 you idiot.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2016, 10:17:55 am »

Great news! If Clinton is leading in a Mason Dixon Poll (the pollster of "lolol Romney's gonna win let's stop polling here"), then she's in great shape!

wrrrrrrrong.

Last Florida Poll by Mason-Dixon was in July 2012.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls
Obama was ahead with +1% margin(which was same as final results of Florida)
Mason-Dixon*   7/9 - 7/11   800 LV   3.5   46   45   Obama +1

And as I said above, This time Mason-Dixon Poll
1) Overweighted Democrats, Underweighted Independent voters
2) They included Johnson, but not Jill Stein(which can make minus of Hillary's numbers at least -2%)



Holy molly you are actually wrong.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-i-4-voters-back-romney-51-45/1258459

The last Mason Dixon poll had Romney up 6 you idiot.

You're arguing with a guy that thinks 7 > 8, I wouldn't bother.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2016, 10:24:42 am »

Wow so Clinton is probably actually by 8-9 points here! Wondrous!
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2016, 10:53:35 am »

I totally see Florida as being a state Clinton would perform better than Sanders in.

But Biden though, really....?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2016, 11:46:29 am »

Great news! If Clinton is leading in a Mason Dixon Poll (the pollster of "lolol Romney's gonna win let's stop polling here"), then she's in great shape!

wrrrrrrrong.

Last Florida Poll by Mason-Dixon was in July 2012.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls
Obama was ahead with +1% margin(which was same as final results of Florida)
Mason-Dixon*   7/9 - 7/11   800 LV   3.5   46   45   Obama +1

And as I said above, This time Mason-Dixon Poll
1) Overweighted Democrats, Underweighted Independent voters
2) They included Johnson, but not Jill Stein(which can make minus of Hillary's numbers at least -2%)



Holy molly you are actually wrong.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-i-4-voters-back-romney-51-45/1258459

The last Mason Dixon poll had Romney up 6 you idiot.

I'm not sure there is a point to engaging StatesPoll. He immediately swoops in to call various polls that show Trump doing poorly bad, yet the second any poll comes out showing Trump performing well in areas you wouldn't expect, he's all over it posting calculations and ambitious predictions, while labeling it the newest swing state.

I don't even know why he is here. He doesn't want to have objective conversations. He just wants to post polls about how great Trump is and dispute polls that show how great he isn't doing. It's kind of weird.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2016, 12:18:41 pm »

Polling Biden? Seriously? I thought the nightmare of pollsters pretending Biden was a candidate ended in October. It's getting really old seeing people include other candidates that haven't had a speck of dirt flung at them in an attempt to make Hillary bad.

At this rate, they'll be polling Warren again by August. Roll Eyes

Poor Hillary. If she doesn't want to look bad, she should work on improving her standing among Florida voters. Doing worse than crazy Uncle Joe? Sad!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2016, 12:22:39 pm »

In some way polling Biden is useful. It factually validates the point that Sanders is polling better than Clinton not because he is a uniquely strong candidate but simply because he hasn't faced any serious attacks.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2016, 12:31:31 pm »

http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/florida/president/#exitPoll

Pretty good numbers for her. Same margin among whites, but she's outperforming Obama's 2012 margin among Hispanics (48% vs his was 21%).

I also saw on Twitter, concerns from GOP that Clinton was winning Tampa by 2 and Obama only won 2 counties in that region.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2016, 12:33:49 pm »

Polling Biden? Seriously? I thought the nightmare of pollsters pretending Biden was a candidate ended in October. It's getting really old seeing people include other candidates that haven't had a speck of dirt flung at them in an attempt to make Hillary bad.

At this rate, they'll be polling Warren again by August. Roll Eyes

Poor Hillary. If she doesn't want to look bad, she should work on improving her standing among Florida voters. Doing worse than crazy Uncle Joe? Sad!

Thanks for confirming you have no idea how politics works.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2016, 01:21:08 pm »

I totally see Florida as being a state Clinton would perform better than Sanders in.

But Biden though, really....?

For whatever reason, the OP included the Biden numbers, but not the Sanders numbers. He ties Trump 42-42.

BERNIE UNELECTABLE, FLORIDA HATES BERNIE!
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Angrie
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« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2016, 01:27:48 pm »

For whatever reason, the OP included the Biden numbers, but not the Sanders numbers. He ties Trump 42-42.

BERNIE UNELECTABLE, FLORIDA HATES BERNIE!

Wow, that is a new one. I wonder if this is an outlier, or maybe we will start to see more polls where Clinton is doing better than Bernie. But I suspect it might also be Florida specific. Hillary could be doing better in Florida because of the large Senior vote, maybe?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2016, 01:38:25 pm »

For whatever reason, the OP included the Biden numbers, but not the Sanders numbers. He ties Trump 42-42.

BERNIE UNELECTABLE, FLORIDA HATES BERNIE!

Wow, that is a new one. I wonder if this is an outlier, or maybe we will start to see more polls where Clinton is doing better than Bernie. But I suspect it might also be Florida specific. Hillary could be doing better in Florida because of the large Senior vote, maybe?

It's not something new. He also does worse in Georgia.
For all the fretting about Clinton not inspiring young people, most have overlooked that minority voters probably aren't so hot on "electable" Sanders.
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Buh her emails!
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« Reply #22 on: June 03, 2016, 02:46:46 pm »

It's official, 2016 is 2012 all over again.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2016, 02:52:37 pm »

It's official, 2016 is 2012 all over again.
Well, the difference is that Clinton is polling much better in Florida than Obama did.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2016, 04:17:25 pm »

Polling Biden? Seriously? I thought the nightmare of pollsters pretending Biden was a candidate ended in October. It's getting really old seeing people include other candidates that haven't had a speck of dirt flung at them in an attempt to make Hillary bad.

At this rate, they'll be polling Warren again by August. Roll Eyes

Poor Hillary. If she doesn't want to look bad, she should work on improving her standing among Florida voters. Doing worse than crazy Uncle Joe? Sad!

Thanks for confirming you have no idea how politics works.

It's called sarcasm.
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