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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  NM - BWD Global: Clinton +25
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Author Topic: NM - BWD Global: Clinton +25  (Read 2687 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: June 03, 2016, 10:06:31 am »

https://www.scribd.com/doc/314323239/DEM-PREZ-MEMO-pdf
(I hate giving a scribd link but its all I can find)
New Mexico Dem Primary LV:
Clinton - 53.3%
Sanders - 27.6%
Undecideds - 19.0%

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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2016, 10:14:55 am »

Quote
Ideology
 
Clinton leads all 4 groups:
 
Progressives: Hillary is ahead 51%-36% with 13% undecided.
 
Liberals: Clinton leads 70%-25% with 5% undecided.
 
Moderates: Clinton is ahead 57%-29% with 14% undecided.
 
Conservatives: Clinton leads 43%-33% with 24% undecided.

This is pretty funny. Bernie doing best among conservatives and worst among liberals, but respectably among progressives. I wonder what makes Bernie supporters so much more inclined to identify as progressive rather than liberal. Is it in age thing?
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King
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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2016, 10:27:25 am »

unless I just happen to know every Sanders support in the state personally, this is junk. not going to be this lopside.
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A Perez
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« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2016, 10:37:28 am »

Land-line only.
Junk poll.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2016, 10:40:57 am »

unless I just happen to know every Sanders support in the state personally, this is junk. not going to be this lopside.

Let's not go down this route. "Everyone I know voted for Bernie!1!!" is how Reddit justifies their fraud accusations. If PA was based on who I knew, Bernie would've won by 50 points. His supporters are more vocal and also more likely to spread their opinion far and wide through technology.

That said, I do agree she's not winning by 25. I think it'll be similar to AZ.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2016, 11:03:52 am »

lol, Bernie losing among progressives. Clinton should easily win here, but not by this much.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2016, 11:14:58 am »

Nice. Gonna make a lot of money shorting the New Mexico margin >15 market on PredictIt after this one!
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Angrie
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« Reply #7 on: June 03, 2016, 11:29:04 am »

Despicable lies! We all know that Bernie will win 95%-5%.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: June 03, 2016, 11:47:36 am »

Looks pretty junkified.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2016, 02:03:15 pm »

Clinton leads 61%-21% among Hispanics. Could NM be his worst state on Tuesday?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2016, 02:08:20 pm »

Clinton leads 61%-21% among Hispanics. Could NM be his worst state on Tuesday?

No, its probably going be NJ.
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mds32
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« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2016, 03:20:53 pm »

No way will she win by that much in New Mexico.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2016, 06:34:36 pm »

The margins seem to be extremely sketchy, I can't see New Mexico going for Hillary by significantly larger margins than Arizona, and quite likely could be significantly closer, considering much lower percentage of 65+ voters and much higher proportion of voters <35 in a primary where generational divide is most regions of the country has been an even larger factor than ethnicity/income.

It is easy to look at the "% of Latinos" in a given state and then automatically start to assign a % of the vote to candidate X or Candidate Y, however the reality is that in New Mexico almost 10% of the population identifies as "Spanish" in origin, with hundreds of years of roots in the region, and there is even a separate Castilian Spanish dialect at home, so there really isn't any reasonable comparison that one could make based upon similar counties/regions, etc...

Now, one item that could prove interesting is the Native American vote in a state where 10% of the population is Native American.... No idea how this will play out in NM, but it is worth noting that Hillary exceeded her statewide averages in Navajo and Apacha counties in NM, which also include the Navajo, Apache, and Hopi Nations. Although we don't have tons of data to look at regarding the Native Nations (MT and SD have yet to vote on Tuesday) Bernie looks to have won the Ojibwe/Chippewa in the Upper-Midwest, as well as indigenous communities in Alaska, and although we don't have much precinct level data from Oregon, quite possibly Warm Springs and people of Native background in Klamath County, Oregon.

Point being, New Mexico is a state that is so fundamentally different demographically from anywhere else in the United States, that I think unless there is another poll or two coming down before Tuesday, no one has any idea how this will all shake down.







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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2016, 12:50:58 am »

Epic fail.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2016, 01:09:54 am »

Clinton leads 61%-21% among Hispanics. Could NM be his worst state on Tuesday?

ayy lmao
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2016, 02:13:27 am »

Epic fail.

I never bought this as a big win - this was one state where age beat out race in 2008, and while I didn't expect this narrow a result, these predictions of 15%+ blowouts were kind of baseless.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2016, 02:41:10 am »

This was really the anomaly of the night. I guess age really made the difference.
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Holmes
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« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2016, 03:24:02 am »

This was really the anomaly of the night. I guess age really made the difference.

Mhmm. She really outperformed everywhere but here, which is really interesting considering it's closed and heavily Hispanic. Ah well.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2016, 04:03:33 am »

Unfortunately without exit polls we will never know what happened.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2016, 09:47:34 am »

NM was...quite a surprise considering how the rest of the night went. If you would've told me yesterday that she'd win SD, possibly win CA by double digits, win NJ by nearly 30, and keep MT within single digits, I'd have guessed NM was a 20+ point blowout.
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Holmes
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« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2016, 09:53:49 am »

Unfortunately without exit polls we will never know what happened.

Really sad. I would love to see some California exit polling too.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2016, 09:58:24 am »

NM was the NC of last Tuesday.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2016, 12:12:12 pm »

Amazing job, BWD Global ...
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2016, 12:32:06 pm »

Amazing job, BWD Global ...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2016, 09:51:00 am »

This was really the anomaly of the night. I guess age really made the difference.

Mhmm. She really outperformed everywhere but here, which is really interesting considering it's closed and heavily Hispanic. Ah well.

Well everywhere but here and North Dakota anyway...
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