NM - BWD Global: Clinton +25

[NOVA Green]

The margins seem to be extremely sketchy, I can't see New Mexico going for Hillary by significantly larger margins than Arizona, and quite likely could be significantly closer, considering much lower percentage of 65+ voters and much higher proportion of voters <35 in a primary where generational divide is most regions of the country has been an even larger factor than ethnicity/income.

It is easy to look at the "% of Latinos" in a given state and then automatically start to assign a % of the vote to candidate X or Candidate Y, however the reality is that in New Mexico almost 10% of the population identifies as "Spanish" in origin, with hundreds of years of roots in the region, and there is even a separate Castilian Spanish dialect at home, so there really isn't any reasonable comparison that one could make based upon similar counties/regions, etc...

Now, one item that could prove interesting is the Native American vote in a state where 10% of the population is Native American.... No idea how this will play out in NM, but it is worth noting that Hillary exceeded her statewide averages in Navajo and Apacha counties in NM, which also include the Navajo, Apache, and Hopi Nations. Although we don't have tons of data to look at regarding the Native Nations (MT and SD have yet to vote on Tuesday) Bernie looks to have won the Ojibwe/Chippewa in the Upper-Midwest, as well as indigenous communities in Alaska, and although we don't have much precinct level data from Oregon, quite possibly Warm Springs and people of Native background in Klamath County, Oregon.

Point being, New Mexico is a state that is so fundamentally different demographically from anywhere else in the United States, that I think unless there is another poll or two coming down before Tuesday, no one has any idea how this will all shake down.

[NOVA Green]

Albuquerque surprised me. Is New Mexico the only state where a major urban area supported Sanders more than the rural and outstanding areas of the state?

Oregon, perhaps? Lane county went more strongly to Sanders than Multnomah did of course, as did a few rural counties here and there, but the rest of the state was generally more pro-Clinton.

Oregon would be about even between "major urban area" vs rest of state with the three counties of Metro Portland +13.6% Bernie and elsewhere +14.2% Bernie (Although Multnomah outperformed statewide results regardless). If we add Lane County to "major urban" it would flip the other way narrowly, although 25% of the County is basically small town and rural, so we would need to way until we get precinct level results.