Yougov: Clinton +2 in CA, +27 in NJ
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  Yougov: Clinton +2 in CA, +27 in NJ
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Author Topic: Yougov: Clinton +2 in CA, +27 in NJ  (Read 1568 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: June 05, 2016, 09:48:32 AM »
« edited: June 05, 2016, 09:50:13 AM by Fusionmunster »

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/04/democratic-primary-clinton-faces-close-race-califo/


California:

Clinton - 49%
Sanders - 47%

New Jersey:

Clinton - 61%
Sanders - 34%
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2016, 09:51:22 AM »

Cool. I know the primary is over, but I still wish Sanders luck in CA. He deserves to win it.

A real nail biter would be a satisfying way to end the primary for us political junkies, however as a Clinton fan I still want her to win it so Sanders cant drag this out any longer.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2016, 09:53:28 AM »

By the way, does anyone find it suspicious that we have a lot of pollsters finding Clinton +2 in California. Are they hedging their bets?
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2016, 09:56:19 AM »

With the media Likley calling Clinton the Presumptive nominee roughly 3 hours before polls close, I wonder if this will cause some Sanders supporters to concede the race, and either vote for Clinton or stay home.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2016, 09:58:44 AM »

With the media Likley calling Clinton the Presumptive nominee roughly 3 hours before polls close, I wonder if this will cause some Sanders supporters to concede the race, and either vote for Clinton or stay home.

The vast majority of ballots will be cast by mail, so it makes no difference. And I doubt people who were otherwise going to vote will decide not to because they happen to be watching the news.
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LLR
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2016, 09:59:31 AM »

God, +27 from YouGov is great. Thank you New Jersey!
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2016, 10:02:32 AM »

No wonder Sanders hasn't been to Jersey in a while
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2016, 10:04:41 AM »

No wonder Sanders hasn't been to Jersey in a while

RIP HockeyDude.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2016, 10:07:35 AM »

70% of Sanders supporters want him to bow out and support Clinton.
Well you know what to do then: don't vote for him bozos.
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dspNY
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« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2016, 10:30:47 AM »

70% of Sanders supporters want him to bow out and support Clinton.
Well you know what to do then: don't vote for him bozos.

Actually 71% of all Democratic voters so about half of Sanders voters
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2016, 10:36:15 AM »

Only 17% of voters in California have already voted according to YouGov. I think that's unusually low (at least 40% have voted already, maybe even 50%), and that group is more heavily Clinton than the folks who haven't voted yet. So there is a chance this poll underrates Clinton
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2016, 11:07:41 AM »

A 2% win would still be enough to clinch and thoroughly. I saw Clinton speak yesterday and the crowd was so big that they had to set up speakers outside just to accommodate the overflow crowd outside, so I think Clinton has a lot of enthusiasm here in California.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2016, 11:09:56 AM »

A 2% win would still be enough to clinch and thoroughly. I saw Clinton speak yesterday and the crowd was so big that they had to set up speakers outside just to accommodate the overflow crowd outside, so I think Clinton has a lot of enthusiasm here in California.

A 50% loss would be enough to clinch.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2016, 11:42:10 AM »

I would really like to see Sanders pull out a win in CA. I mean, for Clinton folks, she's guaranteed a pledged delegate majority if she just wins NJ, and they'll definitely call the nomination for her, so it's not like a narrow loss in CA would make it a bad night for her. Obama clinched the nomination by losing a state that was supposed to be good for him, and that didn't really hurt him down the road. A CA win would basically be a nice afterthought. I'm not saying it will happen, just that I'd like to see it, and it's not like it would really hurt Hillary's chances down the road.
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ucscgaldamez1
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2016, 12:09:31 PM »

I think it is rather interesting that Clinton will be in New York on Tuesday night instead of celebrating in California. Will Bernie be in California? Does Clinton know she will lose California or she doesn't want to take a chance and even a narrow loss look bad if she were to be in California?

I think it is important where they will be on election night. Do you guys know where Bernie will be?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2016, 12:25:31 PM »

Wow, NJ looks ugly. California continues to look interesting. I wish we were gonna get an exit poll.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2016, 12:30:42 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2016, 12:32:37 PM by Fusionmunster »

I think it is rather interesting that Clinton will be in New York on Tuesday night instead of celebrating in California. Will Bernie be in California? Does Clinton know she will lose California or she doesn't want to take a chance and even a narrow loss look bad if she were to be in California?

I think it is important where they will be on election night. Do you guys know where Bernie will be?


Shes in Brooklyn for a couple of reasons. Firstly, that's where her campaign headquarters are, so when shes officially announced as the presumptive nominee, her victory speech will have symbolic overtones. Secondly, California closes at 11pm est while NJ closes at 8pm est, and 11pm is way too late to be giving a victory speech. Thirdly, if California is close, it won't get called until early Wednesday morning(if we're lucky) on the east coast. If we aren't lucky, California might take days to call and if we're super unlucky, it could take weeks.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2016, 01:03:18 PM »

CA looks ok, but the NJ results seem off.

It'll be more like 60-40 or something.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2016, 01:15:40 PM »

CA looks ok, but the NJ results seem off.

It'll be more like 60-40 or something.

Why does it seem off? NJ maybe semi-open, but independent participation has historically been low in primaries.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: June 05, 2016, 01:26:16 PM »

A Sanders win in Cali means a potentially more bitter and divisive convention, which is a risk I don't think is worth it.
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