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Author Topic: CA/NJ-YouGov: Clinton and Sanders lead Trump  (Read 1282 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
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« on: June 05, 2016, 09:54:45 am »

California

Hillary Clinton (D): 48%
Donald Trump (R): 33%
Someone else: 12%

Bernie Sanders (D): 55%
Donald Trump (R): 32%
Someone else: 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xwv005j8gd/ForRelease_20160605_CA.pdf

New Jersey

Hillary Clinton (D): 49%
Donald Trump (R): 34%
Someone else: 8%

Bernie Sanders (D): 52%
Donald Trump (R): 34%
Someone else: 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bujwlhqays/ForRelease_20160605_NJ.pdf



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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2016, 09:56:58 am »

I don't really like YouGov but that Monmouth poll was junk, NJ is not close.
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2016, 10:11:27 am »

So much for Jersey being a swing state
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2016, 10:12:23 am »

Time for StatesPoll to unskew these into Trump leads!
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2016, 10:48:39 am »

Funny, Trump's numbers don't change at all between Clinton and Sanders. Sanders supporters being salty.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2016, 11:54:44 am »

Haha, silly YouGov and these garbage internet pollsters.

I checked cross tabs and its all backwards.

NJ demographics (2014 Primary): 750% white, Z% African American, 4.5*10^-5% Mexican.
^ SOURCE

This pollster has Hillary winning 92% of Blacks, but I'm going to assume this is a rounding error so I will give her about 12% of blacks. So.. 12 * 2.10^-15 Blacks = .089 African American voters for Hillary. Trump is winning 53% of whites but since the word white has five letters I've decided it's fair to add 697% to his vote total here because we can assume he's going to drive turn out.

So.. Canada's 2012 election demographics were

Canadian   English   French   Scottish   Irish   German   Italian   Chinese   First Nations
32.1   19.8   15.4   14.3   13.8   9.7   4.5   4.5   4.1   3.8   3.2

We know that Irish people are always pissed off, and 4.5% times 10, assuming we derive it's result from the quadratic formula, equals 327, so I can assume Trump will win somewhere in the territory of 327 electoral votes, with New Jersey being his largest and safest margin of the 50 states.

You can see further analysis at StatesPoll.com! Have a good one.

« Last Edit: June 05, 2016, 04:06:52 pm by EliteLX »Logged

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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2016, 12:02:35 pm »

No surprise. Big Don should write them off and focus on the important ones.
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2016, 12:06:14 pm »

No surprise. Big Don should write them off and focus on the important ones.
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Dumbo
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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2016, 01:25:46 pm »

No surprise. Big Don should write them off and focus on the important ones.

But this was McCains and Romneys failed strategy, this is not what the people expect from him.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2016, 01:51:14 pm »

Haha, silly YouGov and these garbage internet pollsters.

I checked cross tabs and its all backwards.

NJ demographics (2014 Primary): 750% white, Z% African American, 4.5*10^-5% Mexican.
^ SOURCE

This pollster Hillary Winning 92% of Blacks, but I'm going to assume this is a rounding error so I will give her about 12% of blacks. So.. 12 * 2.10^-15 Blacks = .089 African American voters for Hillary. Trump is winning 53% of whites but since the word white has five letters I've decided it's fair to add 697% to his vote total here because we can assume he's going to drive turn out.

So.. Canada's 2012 election demographics were

Canadian   English   French   Scottish   Irish   German   Italian   Chinese   First Nations
32.1   19.8   15.4   14.3   13.8   9.7   4.5   4.5   4.1   3.8   3.2

We know that Irish people are always pissed off, and 4.5% times 10, assuming we derive it's result from the quadratic formula, equals 327, so I can assume Trump will win somewhere in the territory of 327 electoral votes, with New Jersey being his largest and safest margin of the 50 states.

You can see further analysis at StatesPoll.com! Have a good one.



Yup. Looks about right.
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