FL-Mason Dixon: Clinton 45 Trump 42 // Biden 50 Trump 40

[Wells]

These demographics show this for the rest of the United States.

Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren  314 EV's  52.1%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich  224 EV's  46.8%

Basically, what happened in this map was that Clinton's gains with Hispanics and large victories with AAs were countered by Trump's gains with Whites.

Iowa went R in the 538 model. Ohio went D in the RCP model.

The closest states were Florida (D+3.0%), Iowa (D+2.7%), Michigan (D+5.0%), Minnesota (D+4.6%), New Hampshire (D+2.5%), Ohio (R+1.0%), Pennsylvania (D+3.0%), Virginia (D+1.7%), and Wisconsin (D+3.1%).

Also, assuming a uniform swing, Trump would have to do better by at least 3% nationally before he wins the electoral vote.

[Devils30]

The problem with that calculator is assuming uniform swings in the white vote. I can see small GOP swings in Appalachia, northeast that is countered by Dem swings in the west.

[Sbane]

The problem with that calculator is assuming uniform swings in the white vote. I can see small GOP swings in Appalachia, northeast that is countered by Dem swings in the west.

I can definitely see fairly substantial swings in the white vote towards Trump in the Northeast but a swing away in many other parts of the country. This is why I feel Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent Virginia, are the key to this election.