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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CA-Capitol Weekly: Hillary+12 among absentee voters
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Author Topic: CA-Capitol Weekly: Hillary+12 among absentee voters  (Read 1905 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 06, 2016, 01:29:25 pm »
« edited: June 06, 2016, 01:31:20 pm by Tender Branson »

This is a poll of absentee voters (2.8 million so far) only:

56-44 Hillary/Bernie

80-11-6-2-1 Trump/Kasich/Cruz/Carson/Gilmore

http://capitolweekly.net/exit-poll-tight-race-absentee-voters-favor-hillary

That is in line with the previous CA polls, which showed a close race (Hillary doing better with absentee voters, Sanders better with election day voters).

Quote
As a core part of the Capitol Weekly Absentee Voter Exit Poll, we sought to develop a tool that would allow us to survey enough of the early electorate to track support at the statewide level for each candidate and obtain similar results from each of California’s 53 congressional districts. We seek to give our readers a sense of which districts are solid for a candidate and where the battlegrounds lie, based solely on absentee voters who have returned ballots.

With more than 21,000 respondents who have completed the survey, we definitely have the size and depth to provide both a Republican and a Democratic presidential exit poll of absentee voters broken down by congressional district.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2016, 01:30:45 pm »

Turnout could be pretty big in CA tomorrow:

Maybe 6-7 million votes.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2016, 01:40:35 pm »

Turnout could be pretty big in CA tomorrow:

Maybe 6-7 million votes.

Maybe, but that would be a huge increase from 2008. I dont think thats likely.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2016, 01:41:29 pm »

#Gilmentum
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« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2016, 02:56:48 pm »

Interesting, that's a decent number for Hillary, but it doesn't suggest a double digit victory, or that a Sanders victory is out of the question.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2016, 02:57:33 pm »

One of the most interesting things is looking at the breakdown by CD...

It does appear that there is a major shift away from Hillary in the 1st CD (Possibly heavily driven by Butte County?), Sanders significantly underperforming Obama in Marin/Sonoma thus far, Sacramento 47-53 Hillary, some really unusual looking support for Bernie in the Central Valley (One of Hillary's strongest areas in '08), San Jose 45/55 Hillary, Hillary doing extremely well in Obama's best areas in NW Santa Clara County, inland East Bay narrow Hillary but the places like Fremont/Pleasanton strongly Hillary, San Francisco 44/56 Hillary, Sanders doing really well in much of LA County, and around Riverside/San Bernadino but not so well in areas further out, Hillary performing well in OC and North County San Diego, and Long Beach...

Is it safe to say that the early vote skews older and wealthier than the electorate as a whole and that we can expect to see significant swings towards Bernie in some of the CDs where younger and less affluent voters vote late, and possibly a similar phenomenon for Hillary in some other parts of the state like the Central Valley?



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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2016, 03:29:38 pm »


Is it safe to say that the early vote skews older and wealthier than the electorate as a whole and that we can expect to see significant swings towards Bernie in some of the CDs where younger and less affluent voters vote late, and possibly a similar phenomenon for Hillary in some other parts of the state like the Central Valley?


Yup, I was thinking exactly that. I think the Sanders strength in the Central Valley and parts of LA County/Inland Empire will melt away when the election day votes come in. Conversely, Hillary may not have as much strength around the Bay Area and college towns once the election day votes come in. All that being said, it does show how Bernie is likely to do much better in inland California than demographics might suggest. On the flip side Hillary does much better in places like OC, SD and parts of the Bay Area than one might assume at first glance.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2016, 04:08:22 pm »

Turnout could be pretty big in CA tomorrow:

Maybe 6-7 million votes.

Democrats or overall?
Because in 2008 the entire turnout was 6.5-7 millions.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2016, 07:12:51 pm »

This could end up being a slobberknocker. Fingers crossed.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2016, 07:39:24 pm »

This could end up being a slobberknocker. Fingers crossed.

Well there's a new word. Also, obligatory:

#Gilmentum
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2016, 03:27:40 pm »

So this poll had pretty accurate numbers for many CDs, and aside from what looked like obvious junk data for the Central Valley, and parts of LA, Riverside, and San Bernadino (Mainly because of low response rates) there were some interesting misses, when compared with votes as of this morning, even with areas of large sample sizes...

CD-5: Santa Rose, Napa, and Rohnert Park +7.5% swing towards Hillary
CD-7: Eastern Sac suburbs +10% swing towards Hillary
CD-17: Sunnyvale, N. SJ, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Milipitas- +7% swing towards Hillary
CD-19: Most of San Jose- +7% swing towards Hillary
CD-20: Monterey Co. and SE Santa Cruz Co-  +12% swing towards Hillary
CD-24: Santa Barbara/ St Lo- +9% swing towards Hillary
CD-52: Much of San Diego, La Jolla - +9 % swing towards Sanders

Now CD-20 can probably be explained as a result of under-sampling of Spanish language voters in Salinas and Watsonville and/or same day voting breaking for Hillary, CD-52 as a result of the large student vote at UCSD with same day voting breaking for Bernie, but I'm having a harder time understanding the wealthier and more educated voters in Silicon Valley, as well as in CD-5 and CD-24, being undersampled, and/or being more likely to vote same-day.


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« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2016, 03:52:12 pm »

Looking at some of the CD results, I would not be surprised if Whites and Latinos voted fairly similarly in Southern California. That is something the polls were picking up on.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2016, 06:14:47 pm »

Looking at some of the CD results, I would not be surprised if Whites and Latinos voted fairly similarly in Southern California. That is something the polls were picking up on.

Yeah looking at places like CD-46 (Anaheim and Santa Ana) and CD-40 which is 87% Latino (East LA, Downey, Huntington Park, etc...) where Bernie got 47% and 43% respectively so far, it really seems like, at least within the larger Metro areas there wasn't that much of an ethnic divide and more age/income divide.

I'm seeing similar results looking at Santa Clara County county precinct numbers where in the South Bay  it's not really looking like there were significant differences in votes based upon ethnicity, but greater correlation between "Middle-Class" versus "Wealthy" areas in voting patterns.
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