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pbrower2a
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« on: June 06, 2016, 08:07:19 pm »

Blank map.



I am showing a color and shade only for States in which someone gets a majority or leads by 10%; electoral breakdown for states in which neither condition is met, in D-R-I order. D will be one color; Maine and Nebraska districts will not be so separated. White is for a tie at the top. To show how this works I will show a Democrat winning Maine 52-28-20 but losing the Second district, an Independent winning New Hampshire each with more than 40%,  a Republican winning Vermont, a 46-46-8 tie in California, a Republican winning Nevada 38-33-29, a Democrat winning 40-37-33 in Arizona, a Libertarian winning New Mexico 42-35-23. Illustrative to show the color scheme and nothing else.

White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Solely for showing the color scheme



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed conservative independent (I)




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2016, 08:31:13 pm »
« Edited: June 07, 2016, 11:33:24 am by pbrower2a »

Backtracking.

Gravis, Utah.
Georgia, PPP.
Florida, ARG.
Michigan, Glengariff.



White is for ties. Even leads in the twenties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2016, 11:20:18 am »
« Edited: June 07, 2016, 11:32:27 am by pbrower2a »

New. Quinnipiac, Connecticut:

Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Donald Trump (R): 36%
Gary Johnson (L): 6%
Jill Stein (G): 3%



White is for ties. Even leads in the twenties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2016, 07:48:22 am »

More backtracking:

North Carolina, PPP:

Donald Trump (R): 43%
Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Gary Johnson (L): 3%
Jill Stein (G): 2%

Oklahoma, -Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates

Trump 48%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 6%
Undecided 18%

New Mexico
http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 33%
Johnson: 14%

This is a three-way poll, and it shows how far behind Donald Trump will be in New Mexico.

Virginia, Gravis Marketing:

Clinton 44
Trump 38
Johnson 6

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/virginia-election-poll052016/



White is for ties. Even leads in the twenties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)




Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.   




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Solely to illustrate what a tie and a Libertarian lead, and decisive leads for either Clinton or Trump will  look like I will show the unlikely scenario of a tie in North Dakota between Clinton and Trump (with Johnson getting 16) and a Libertarian lead in South Dakota in which Clinton is in second place with 44L, 32D, 22R .  In this case the second-place candidate is identified by party and raw number. Also preposterously suggesting  that Hillary Clinton  will get 52% of the vote in Nebraska and that Trump will get more 52% of the vote in Minnesota... the map below is an illustration and not a prediction of reality...

Margin-based plan. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader.




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)






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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2016, 09:38:46 am »

Are we already ignoring the FL PPP poll?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2016, 10:35:12 am »
« Edited: June 10, 2016, 09:03:30 pm by pbrower2a »


No.

Pennsylvania, PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/pennsylvania-close-sanders-supporter-unity-would-make-it-not-close.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Stein 3

Democrats lead a generic ballot question for President 45/41

Only 72% of Sanders supporters support Clinton. If Clinton got half of them, her lead over Trump head to head would be 47-40.

Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Donald Trump (R): 35%
Gary Johnson (L): 7%
Undecided: 12%

Clinton is leading 67-17 in Chicago and 47-35 in suburban Cook County. Trump, however, is ahead 42-38 in the suburban collar counties and leads by ten points, 45-35, among Downstate voters

http://www.rebootillinois.com/2016/06/10/featured-articles/richmiller/capitol-fax-poll-voters-blame-michael-madigan-for-budget-mess/59655/




Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.  




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)







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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2016, 12:52:59 am »


Utah, SurveyUSA


Clinton: 35
Trump: 35
Johnson: 13

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/315450242/Salt-Lake-Tribune-President-Poll


Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.  




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)








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LLR
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« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2016, 07:58:22 am »
« Edited: June 12, 2016, 08:14:16 am by LLR »

Johnson strength map as of now:

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
under 3: 30





(Hope you're okay with me using your thread for this, pbrower. If you aren't, just tell me.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2016, 11:08:50 am »

Johnson strength map as of now:

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
under 3: 30





(Hope you're okay with me using your thread for this, pbrower. If you aren't, just tell me.

I strongly approve.

Ironically I may have to close the thread in which I show the binary choice between Clinton and Trump. Support for the Libertarian ticket is NOT academic. The two Libertarian nominees for President and Vice-President have two of the greatest strengths that I have seen in any Third-Party candidacy in my lifetime (which does not include the racist Thurmond campaign of 1948) -- two nominees with elective records in offices whence Presidents come from.

There's much discontent with both Parties, and I can imagine many Republicans seeing Johnson and Weld as closer to their political orthodoxy than is The Donald. This is not a racist ticket that might win some states in a region yet get practically no support elsewhere.  So for people who can stomach neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton -- here is the first Third Party nominee since Robert LaFollette in 1924 to win any electoral votes without being a racist secession from a major Party.

But even if Johnson/Weld does not win any electoral votes, the Libertarians can draw enough votes away from the Republican ticket to swing some states. (To a lesser extent, so could Jill Stein.

Let us remember that in 2008 such happened in Missouri and North Carolina. The right-wing Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr won enough votes to keep John McCain from winning North Carolina, and the left-wing Green Party nominee Ralph Nader won enough votes in Missouri to keep Barack Obama from winning Missouri.  McCain and Barr nominees won more votes than Obama and Nader in North Carolina, and Obama and Nader won more votes than McCain and Barr in Missouri. It mattered little that year.



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2016, 04:57:56 pm »
« Edited: June 12, 2016, 09:35:25 pm by pbrower2a »

Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.  

Change in the display: removing the letter indicating which party nominee has the lead. The color should make that obvious. I am also replacing the comma with a slash.




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2016, 09:41:37 pm »

States that I most want to see polled now for this map:

Ohio
Iowa
Colorado
Arizona
New Hampshire
Nevada
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nebraska
Missouri

PPP gives us a poll of Virginia this week.



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2016, 05:22:23 pm »
« Edited: June 15, 2016, 11:00:38 pm by pbrower2a »

Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.  


California, University of Southern  California;  Los Angeles Times

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-california-exit-poll-20160613-snap-story.html

Clinton: 61
Trump: 31

If Hillary Clinton is this far ahead in California, the Johnson vote in California will be of at most arcane interest.  


Virginia, PPP

48-45 without third parties
42-39 with third parties (I believe Gary Johnson is at 9%)

This was reported on the Rachel Maddow show and PPP says they will put out the PDF of the full poll tomorrow




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)







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LLR
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2016, 08:27:46 pm »


Johnson strength map including the California poll - we can assume he's in the "2-3" category here:

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2016, 11:02:29 pm »

Virginia update because I am using it elsewhere:


Johnson strength map including the California poll - we can assume he's in the "2-3" category here:

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20



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LLR
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« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2016, 06:16:08 am »
« Edited: June 16, 2016, 03:49:44 pm by LLR »

Johnson strength map including the Virginia PPP poll and Illinois poll - he's at 6% in both, meaning no change.

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2016, 01:54:20 pm »

Two westerly states. No suggestion of how many would vote for Gary Johnson, but I would expect substantial numbers in both states.

Arizona (private poll) -- Trump 42, Clinton 39.

Washington, PPP -- Clinton 49, Trump 37.




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)








[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2016, 01:22:51 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2016, 04:27:13 pm by pbrower2a »

States that I would love to see polled:

Three-way (I see this Presidential race as three-way now):

Iowa
Ohio
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Oregon
Colorado
Nevada
Nebraska
Kansas
New Hampshire
Montana
Missouri
Arizona
Indiana

Not that I trust any polls from these two states:

Alaska
Texas
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2016, 09:16:34 pm »


Johnson strength map

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: June 20, 2016, 05:09:12 am »


Johnson strength map

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear





I like this. I'm going with it. Thank you.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2016, 05:36:13 am »
« Edited: June 21, 2016, 01:19:09 pm by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac FLOP (FLorida-Ohio-Pennsylvania):

Florida: Clinton 42%, Trump 36%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3%
Ohio: Clinton 38%, Trump 36%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 39%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 4%


https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2359
Survey conducted by Dan Jones & Associates June 8-17, 2016. 614 registered Utah voters. Margin of error +/- 3.95%

36% Trump
27% Clinton
10% Johnson
  2% Stein

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9909-poll-donald-trump-has-a-nine-point-lead-on-hillary-clinton-in-utah




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2016, 05:40:24 am »
« Edited: June 21, 2016, 01:37:19 pm by pbrower2a »


Johnson strength map

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear




Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4, UT 2

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LLR
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« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2016, 06:12:03 am »
« Edited: June 22, 2016, 07:26:32 am by LLR »


Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4

Stein strength map (why not?)

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« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2016, 01:04:19 pm »

Using yellow for the Green Party?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2016, 10:25:04 am »

Using yellow for the Green Party?

Switched to lavender.

I notice that the color scheme can change some. This might be good for primaries and election coverage. Just testing here:




1 - red
2 - blue
3 - green
4-  yellow
5-  orange
6 - purple (more reddish)
7-  tan/brown
8-  lavender (about neutral between blue and red)
9 - purple (more bluish)
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« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2016, 11:39:47 am »

Using yellow for the Green Party?

Switched to lavender.

I notice that the color scheme can change some. This might be good for primaries and election coverage. Just testing here:




1 - red
2 - blue
3 - green
4-  yellow
5-  orange
6 - purple (more reddish)
7-  tan/brown
8-  lavender (about neutral between blue and red)
9 - purple (more bluish)


LOL
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