Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's really a crime that we're not going to get a proper exit poll in California tonight.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It's really a crime that we're not going to get a proper exit poll in California tonight.

[Vega]

MSNBC changed their graphics recently. Honestly I'm not the biggest fan.

Do you mean with the bar on the top of the screen that's now on the bottom like normal?

[RJEvans]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

Wow, she might actually lose.

[NOVA Green]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

It's a really interesting poll, and I am glad they did it, as it actually breaks down numbers by CD, which   provides some potentially useful data, as well as some "junk data" for CD's with extremely low numbers of respondents, like the Southern Central Valley and many parts of LA County, Orange, and the Inland Empire.

I still have some questions regarding the methodology when it comes to sampling non-native English-language speakers and from what I understand is an "email only" based poll, but the early vote data looks quite favorable for Bernie in rural NorCal, much of the Bay Area (South Bay and flatlands of East Bay), The "Sac"with some offsets in the Peminsula around places like Walnut Creek and Concord.

San Diego county looks pretty good for Hillary 40-60 based upon these early voting consolidated numbers, and of the five CDs that include predominately SD County, Bernie is doing best around Escondido/ Fallbrook/ San Marcos and getting slaughtered in the city of San Diego and Chula Vista. Coastal North County 44-56 Clinton, but has been trending Bernie since they updated their results, so could well flip with later ballots, including younger voters and military voters associated with Camp Pendleton.

 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

HILLARY. IS. NOT. LOSING. CALIFORNIA.

[Boston Bread]

A Bernie upset would be amazing, but still expecting a Clinton win in CA.

[Fusionmunster]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

Wow, she might actually lose.

Doubt it. Its looking like same day turnout hasnt been that strong.

[IceSpear]

MSNBC changed their graphics recently. Honestly I'm not the biggest fan.

Yeah they're hideous now. I may switch to CNN in protest, but their website is unforgivable too. *sigh*

[ElectionsGuy]

MSNBC changed their graphics recently. Honestly I'm not the biggest fan.

Do you mean with the bar on the top of the screen that's now on the bottom like normal?

Instead of a blue or red background corresponding with the party they now have a white background with red or blue text and a check mark with yellow highlight. It looks so much more effortless.

We'll see if they stick with it tonight.

[NOVA Green]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

Wow, she might actually lose.

Doubt it. Its looking like same day turnout hasnt been that strong.

Well the problem is that if the election is anywhere close, there's a good chance that we won't know for a few days or even possibly longer. I think California allows all ballots received through the mail by Thursday (Or is it Friday?) to be counted. In a heavily VbM state, this means that there is a large number of individuals that wait until the day of the election and then put their ballots in the mailbox...

I love vote-by-mail, but find it extremely frustrating when it comes to the pace of vote counting.... I think Oregon has "final" but non certified numbers and our election was three weeks ago!

[IceSpear]

Merkley was just on MSNBC saying the winner of the pledged delegates/popular vote is the nominee, and that superdelegates should be abolished.

[Fusionmunster]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

Wow, she might actually lose.

Doubt it. Its looking like same day turnout hasnt been that strong.

Well the problem is that if the election is anywhere close, there's a good chance that we won't know for a few days or even possibly longer. I think California allows all ballots received through the mail by Thursday (Or is it Friday?) to be counted. In a heavily VbM state, this means that there is a large number of individuals that wait until the day of the election and then put their ballots in the mailbox...

I love vote-by-mail, but find it extremely frustrating when it comes to the pace of vote counting.... I think Oregon has "final" but non certified numbers and our election was three weeks ago!

I dont think California is getting called anytime soon, Im not sure if that's good or bad for either candidate.

Merkley was just on MSNBC saying the winner of the pledged delegates/popular vote is the nominee, and that superdelegates should be abolished.

He's a good democrat, and young. He has no plans to burn bridges, especially with Obama endorsing soon.

[Xing]

If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.

[Fusionmunster]

If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.

Its actually 9 points.......yeah your point still stands.

[NOVA Green]

Merkley was just on MSNBC saying the winner of the pledged delegates/popular vote is the nominee, and that superdelegates should be abolished.

Freedom Fighter from Oregon.

Proud to have him as my Senator.

Unfortunately, these rules won't change until 2020 at the earliest and quite likely much longer, and "The Pledge" that was sent out in late Summer and "Super-banking Super-Delegates" before a single vote had been cast, not only effectively locked in the Nomination by creating a perception of invincibility, decreased debate within the party regarding many major issues, and is likely part of the reason that "Honest Joe" Biden didn't step into the race.

[NOVA Green]

If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.

Its actually 9 points.......yeah your point still stands.

It's actually 7.4% unless they adjusted within the past hour (7,575 Bernie- 8,770 based upon the Noon Update)  but they "weigh the polls" to adjust for Demographics, whatever the "F" that means.

[Fusionmunster]

If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.

Its actually 9 points.......yeah your point still stands.

It's actually 7.4% unless they adjusted within the past hour (7,575 Bernie- 8,770 based upon the Noon Update)  but they "weigh the polls" to adjust for Demographics, whatever the "F" that means.

Unrelated, but I feel like an email poll would favor Sanders, dont you think?

[MisSkeptic]

HILLARY. IS. NOT. LOSING. CALIFORNIA.

I say it'll be split closely between the two. Bernie is still popular in California, however, Hillary will carry the state tonight.

[Green Line]

So, are we ready to call it yet?

[Ronnie]

I think my signature makes pretty clear whom I voted for today (in California) .

[sportydude]

I think my signature makes pretty clear whom I voted for today (in California) .

I thought that was a lottery ticket. LOL

[Crumpets]

I think my signature makes pretty clear whom I voted for today (in California) .

Is that a butterfly ballot?

[Ronnie]

I think my signature makes pretty clear whom I voted for today (in California) .

Is that a butterfly ballot?

No, just a booklet listing the voting options and a scantron.

[tinman64]

I live in San Joaquin County, and we do the "fill in the bubble" ballot as well.