Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Fusionmunster]

Just got home from voting. Very quick and easy although one of the machines was broken. There was a lady(seemed about 30) ahead of me who hadnt realized she was still a registered Republican and was trying to figure out how she would be able to vote democrat. She was still there when i left, hope she atleast voted.

[Fusionmunster]

Any reports on turnout?

Benchmark is reporting low turnout in Berkeley, but schools out so that's not surprising.

[Fusionmunster]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

Wow, she might actually lose.

Doubt it. Its looking like same day turnout hasnt been that strong.

[Fusionmunster]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

Wow, she might actually lose.

Doubt it. Its looking like same day turnout hasnt been that strong.

Well the problem is that if the election is anywhere close, there's a good chance that we won't know for a few days or even possibly longer. I think California allows all ballots received through the mail by Thursday (Or is it Friday?) to be counted. In a heavily VbM state, this means that there is a large number of individuals that wait until the day of the election and then put their ballots in the mailbox...

I love vote-by-mail, but find it extremely frustrating when it comes to the pace of vote counting.... I think Oregon has "final" but non certified numbers and our election was three weeks ago!

I dont think California is getting called anytime soon, Im not sure if that's good or bad for either candidate.

Merkley was just on MSNBC saying the winner of the pledged delegates/popular vote is the nominee, and that superdelegates should be abolished.

He's a good democrat, and young. He has no plans to burn bridges, especially with Obama endorsing soon.

[Fusionmunster]

If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.

Its actually 9 points.......yeah your point still stands.

[Fusionmunster]

If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.

Its actually 9 points.......yeah your point still stands.

It's actually 7.4% unless they adjusted within the past hour (7,575 Bernie- 8,770 based upon the Noon Update)  but they "weigh the polls" to adjust for Demographics, whatever the "F" that means.

Unrelated, but I feel like an email poll would favor Sanders, dont you think?

[Fusionmunster]

CNN merged Bergen County and Hudson County, can't say I'm too pleased.

[Fusionmunster]

Sanders will do well in the college areas (Rutgers-New Brunswick, Rutgers-Newark)

There not in session right now though which means turnout there shouldn't be that high.

[Fusionmunster]

CNN merged Bergen County and Hudson County, can't say I'm too pleased.

That's unfortunate. I'd like to see how my county votes and it should be pretty different from Bergen county.

So if you hover your cursor in the right place, there's a little sliver that shows up as Hudson county. They really do need to fix it though. It might be a small county geographically, but its not tiny in terms of population.

[Fusionmunster]

NYT graphics make it look like SD polls have closed. Is this the case?

A portion of South Dakota.

[Fusionmunster]

Benchmark calls NJ for Clinton? How?

[Fusionmunster]

Fox calls it for Clinton?

HOW R THEY CALLING IT WITH NO RESULTS!?

[Fusionmunster]

NJ will probably be called once we get Essex. The only question is the margin.

Fox has already called it apparently.

[Fusionmunster]

If decision desk is accurate and that Essex drop they just got is right, Hillary will be getting a big bump soon.

[Fusionmunster]

Passaic County has Paterson, and Essex has Newark.

[Fusionmunster]

So, Sanders ain't winning a county huh?

I think he has a chance in Hunterdon County.

Edit: Nope, probably not. It was closer last time I checked.

[Fusionmunster]

Clinton has won South Dakota.

*GASP*

[Fusionmunster]

Hillary starting to run away with NJ.

[Fusionmunster]

Benchmark deserves some accolades for NJ.

[Fusionmunster]

If Sanders loses Montana and Clinton wins 5 out of six states, will Sanders drop out?

I think Sanders only cares about California tonight.

[Fusionmunster]

If Clinton really only does win NM by 6-7 points (which is possible, due to Sanders winning some counties), that might spell trouble for her in CA.

Clinton barely won New Mexico in 08.

[Fusionmunster]

I don't understand ...
How can Sanders win N.D. by such a huge margin, but yet Hillary is currently leading in S.D. ?
Strange.
What am I missing ?

Ones a caucus, ones a primary.

[Fusionmunster]

The percentage is going down but Hillary seems to have a solid 400,000 vote lead in Cali.

[Fusionmunster]

Uh... you guys do realize that Clinton didn't drop out on the last day of the primaries in 2008 either right? (Technically this isn't even the last day of the primaries.)

Do you think he's meeting with Obama on Thursday just to flip him the bird or something? Get a grip, folks. It takes a few days to sort these things out sometimes.

Yep, he hopefully knows what hes doing. The fact that he didnt attack Clinton was a positive sign.

[Fusionmunster]

Is San Francisco really nearly all in? Hillary is winning it by double digits...

Not unless somehow total votes dropped from 250k in '08 to 150k in '16.

Voter turnout is likely down across the state.