Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)  (Read 67442 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,280
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: June 07, 2016, 12:34:47 AM »
So will we call the D.C. Primary "Epilogue Tuesday"?
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2016, 12:59:00 PM »
I still don't see why people are predicting that Clinton will win SD. She won in '08 because she campaigned heavily there, and it was also a closed primary. I mean, anything's possible, but it would go completely against the demographics for her to win there.

CA: Clinton 52-47
MT: Sanders 60-39
NJ: Clinton 61-39
NM: Clinton 56-44
ND: Sanders 66-34
SD: Sanders 55-45
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2016, 01:50:42 PM »
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on June 07, 2016, 01:03:10 PM
Quote from: xingkerui on June 07, 2016, 12:59:00 PM
I still don't see why people are predicting that Clinton will win SD. She won in '08 because she campaigned heavily there, and it was also a closed primary. I mean, anything's possible, but it would go completely against the demographics for her to win there.

CA: Clinton 52-47
MT: Sanders 60-39
NJ: Clinton 61-39
NM: Clinton 56-44
ND: Sanders 66-34
SD: Sanders 55-45

There was also a poll (probably junk, but beggars can't be choosers) showing her up there recently. Seeing as neither really campaigned there, it's not unreasonable to think it might have just been staying Clinton +3 or whatever it was, particularly with national polls moving in her favor.

True, but that was only one poll. A poll taken in OR after Sanders had spent some time there still showed Clinton up 15, and we know how that turned out. I'd go with the demographics over a single poll.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2016, 05:55:59 PM »
If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2016, 07:01:17 PM »
They're being careful. lol
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2016, 07:08:27 PM »
Quote from: Fusionmunster on June 07, 2016, 07:06:12 PM
Benchmark calls NJ for Clinton? How?

Probably an "educated guess."
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2016, 07:23:00 PM »
Tuning into CNN for a few minutes reminded me why I never watch CNN anymore...
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2016, 07:28:23 PM »
Now it's 55-45.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2016, 07:34:20 PM »
NJ will probably be called once we get Essex. The only question is the margin.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2016, 07:47:18 PM »
Essex is very strong for Clinton. Her margins in these counties might go down as more votes come in, but she's winning NJ by double digits, as expected.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2016, 08:06:37 PM »
SD, if you ruin the map AGAIN...
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2016, 08:17:23 PM »
What the hell is going on!? Is Sanders about to win NM and lose SD? Those are some weak sauce margins for Clinton in Santa Fe and Albuquerque...
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2016, 08:23:23 PM »

Source?
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2016, 08:52:38 PM »
I guess SD just has a Hillary fetish. Maybe it'll make the GE map ugly too...
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2016, 09:05:27 PM »
If Clinton really only does win NM by 6-7 points (which is possible, due to Sanders winning some counties), that might spell trouble for her in CA.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2016, 09:15:01 PM »
All "initial results." We call collectively start sweating when she's still up with 15% in.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2016, 09:22:16 PM »
I guess this is what happens when Sanders ignores states, but if that explained this, he'd be doing much worse in NM.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2016, 09:51:55 PM »
Maybe Sanders should have actually put up a bit of effort in the states other than CA. Only winning ND looks terrible.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2016, 09:55:58 PM »
Clinton's lead in Montana is going back down. It'll be much closer than I thought, but it looks like Sanders may get his second state. He needs to move Minnehaha and Lincoln in the other direction to have a chance in South Dakota.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2016, 10:08:31 PM »
I like the little Sanders belt in New Mexico. Tongue
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2016, 10:14:25 PM »
SD is reminding me a lot of IA...
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2016, 10:16:26 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on June 07, 2016, 10:15:16 PM
Sanders losing in Shasta isn't a good sign for him.

That's the early vote.

Also, the margin in NM is almost identical to NV...
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2016, 10:16:59 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on June 07, 2016, 10:16:08 PM
Quote from: xingkerui on June 07, 2016, 09:51:55 PM
Maybe Sanders should have actually put up a bit of effort in the states other than CA. Only winning ND looks terrible.

Idk, losing the nomination looks kinda worse, tbh

It was a foregone conclusion. Losing states that are demographically good for him was not.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #23 on: June 07, 2016, 10:27:18 PM »
This is early vote, people. Let's try not to do the Atlas thing and overreact. I don't see Sanders winning, but it's not going to be this lopsided.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2016, 10:38:48 PM »
WTH just happened to the map? Several counties disappeared.
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