Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[cinyc]

NYT graphics make it look like SD polls have closed. Is this the case?

East river South Dakota, in the Central Time Zone, should be closed.  West river is in the Mountain Time Zone.  Polls there close at 9PM Eastern.

[cinyc]

Hillary winning in largely white, rural Warren Co. Good sign for her in NJ?

A) Initial results favor Clinton
B) I think it's Philly suburbs???

New York City exurbs is probably a better description of Warren County.

[cinyc]

I think South Dakota is waiting for all the polls to close before reporting results.  I know Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls (pt.)) is waiting until 8 Central, when West river polls close, to put anything on their website.

[cinyc]

South Dakota's Secretary of State Presidential elections results page is here.

According to local ABC station, KOTA, Pennington County (Rapid City) has three vote-counting machines that report results to the Secretary of State.  So their website might get results first.  It also probably means that far-flung areas of geographically large Pennington County get counted later, since the count seems centralized in downtown Rapid City.

[cinyc]

Unless Sanders dominates in the western part of the state, I think Clinton takes SD.

Nothing's really in from the major population center of Sioux Falls (mainly Minnehaha, a little in Lincoln County), or West River Pennington County (Rapid City).  I wouldn't draw any conclusions about South Dakota until we hear from Sioux Falls at least.

[cinyc]

Pennington just came in for Clinton.

That's probably the early vote, based on the SoS website. The county is very Republican, but I doubt there were only 1600 Democratic votes in the county. 

Meanwhile, the Minnehaha (Sioux Falls) early vote appears to be coming in for Sanders.

[cinyc]

Anybody else want to contest my call of Clinton for SD?

Sioux Falls and Pierre is most of the state, and we have basically nothing. I still think it's up in the air.

Nobody lives in Pierre - well, about 14,000 do, but it's a minimal part of the state's population.  It's the second least populated state capital, behind Montpelier, Vermont.

Sioux Falls is where the votes are, probably followed by Rapid City - though Rapid City might not cast all that many votes in a Democratic primary relative to its population.

[cinyc]

To have a shot at SD, he needs to be within 2 percent at 50 percent in. The margin's twice that, with 46 percent. Could be close if the ballots outstanding are helpful, but he'll fall short.

You keep assuming that all precincts are of uniform size when they are not.  Much of what's in is from rural counties with fewer Democrats per precinct than places like Sioux Falls.

[cinyc]

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We'll see who's right. Pretty sure I am. I already made my call.

I'm not saying Sanders will win.  I just think it's premature to call anything without seeing more from Sioux Falls and Rapid City.  That's like projecting Illinois without the city of Chicago proper.

[cinyc]

Does anyone think its strange that Pennington has less than 2,000 votes in the primary? Its a Republican county, but neighboring Lawrence County has more than half of its vote already and its 1/4 of the population of Pennington.

The AP is wrong.  Pennington County is only reporting early votes, according to the Secretary of State.  There's no way only 1600 votes were cast in the Democratic primary there, with all but 1 precinct reporting.

[cinyc]

I knew something was wrong with Pennington. Glad that got fixed.

It's still not totally fixed.  Only 16/47 precincts are fully reporting, not 46/47.

[cinyc]

Rapid city is done though. That's as close as he'll come.

Minnihaha has 51 precincts outstanding and Hillary is still up by 1k net votes.

Rapid City is nowhere near done.  Trust the precinct numbers on the Republican side of the AP/NYT maps, not the Democratic side.  The AP/NYT are wrong.  The SoS is reporting 16/47 fully in in Pennington.  Pennington County is more than just Rapid City, though.

[cinyc]

Why does NYT still have Montana at <1% reporting?

Because it's almost all early votes, not election-day precincts.

[cinyc]

Roberts County, SD ruined the county map.

Roberts County is on an Indian Reservation.  Sanders visited the Pine Ridge Reservation in Oglala Lakota (nee Shannon) County when he toured the state.  The Sisseton Indian Reservation is in the other corner of the state, but some might have noticed.

[cinyc]

Final Minnehaha:

  Bernie Sanders.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     5,290   46.78
     Hillary Clinton  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     6,018   53.22

[cinyc]

Shannon County will come in strong for Clinton, so yeah, it's basically over.

Shannon County is now Oglala Lakota County.  It is entirely on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation.  Sanders visited it during the campaign.  Sanders is also winning quite a few of the other reservation counties in South Dakota.  I wouldn't be so sure it will come in strong for Clinton.

[cinyc]

Looks like the remainder of Pennington isn't coming in strong enough. Would call SD now.

Looking at the Pennington precincts out on the SoS website, a lot of them seem to be rural precincts outside of Rapid City.  There may not be many more votes left to count there.

[cinyc]

Also, Sanders has taken a strong lead in Oglala Lakota County, SD

Only 2/9 precincts are reporting there.  Clinton won the sparsely populated Cuny Table precinct, which I think is near Badlands National Park.  Sanders cleaned up in the more-populated Oglala.  Who wins the Pine Ridge precincts will likely dictate who wins the county.  I'm pretty sure it will be Sanders because he made a campaign stop in the county.

[cinyc]

Meanwhile, South Dakota's vote is all in:

Clinton 27046 (51.03%)
Sanders 25957   (48.97%)

Sanders' best county was Harding, in the northwest corner of the state. He received 74% of the vote there.  Clinton's best county was Marshall, in the northeast part of the state.  She received almost 63% of the vote there.

[cinyc]

You could drop it off at a polling place or a special drop box until 8pm today, but I assume you're screwed after that.

Ballots postmarked today are valid as long as they are received by elections officials on or before June 10.  In theory, if you can find a 24-hour post office, you could drop your ballot off by 11:59PM.