Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)  (Read 67025 times)
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« on: June 07, 2016, 07:09:47 PM »
Warren for Clinton - TCTC.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2016, 07:13:24 PM »
Hillary needs 215 delegates to finish this. This isn't going to end until CA votes.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2016, 07:18:48 PM »
Basically, Hillary needs to get 31 percent of remaining delegates to take this. Bernie needs 69.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2016, 07:26:53 PM »
Atlantic city in, Bernie down 57-43
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2016, 07:30:49 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2016, 07:33:09 PM by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »
Gloucester County now 55-44.

3700 votes in so far. Still too early to put caps on.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2016, 07:33:44 PM »
It's human error. Apologies. Gloucester County, not Atlantic County.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2016, 07:37:04 PM »
Ocean in 53-46 Hillary.

Hudson 62-37.

Somerset 65.


Still TCTC. Not nearly enough votes in.

57-42 Statewide. 1 percent in. We'll see how long before it's capped.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2016, 07:39:44 PM »
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Yep. It's TCTC with 1 percent in.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2016, 07:43:47 PM »
Passaic at 74 percent for Clinton.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2016, 07:45:20 PM »
New York at 2 percent. Bernie capped at 92. Still TCTC.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2016, 07:47:03 PM »
Cape May at 65. Essex at 67.

3 percent in 60/40 for Hillary stateside.

Bernie now capped at 73.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2016, 07:50:01 PM »
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Still TCTC. Bernie still has outside chances at taking NJ by the Margins he needs to not fall behind.

 
 
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2016, 07:52:01 PM »
59-41 statewide with 6 percent in. Bernie now capped at 58.

Hillary with nominal lead.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2016, 07:56:24 PM »
Hillary's nominal lead is now 3.5 percent. Bernie capped at 55.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2016, 07:57:09 PM »
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Still TCTC.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2016, 07:59:15 PM »
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As more votes come in, the range for Bernie and Hillary shrinks with a proportion inverse to the number of the votes counted.

Hillary being 3.5 up means that Bernie is falling behind, she doesn't have a true lead yet - when she does we can call it for her.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2016, 08:01:12 PM »
8 in. Bernie capped at 53. Clinton up by about 6 nominal lead. If this doesn't change, could be called at 12.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2016, 08:02:40 PM »
13 in Hillary 59.1 - 40.9

This is over. Congrats Hillary.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2016, 08:06:21 PM »
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I've been doing this since 2012. I've never once made a wrong call.

SD is still TCTC, but Hillary is very close to winning in SD.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2016, 08:07:14 PM »
NM still TCTC. only 3 percent in.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2016, 08:10:17 PM »
SD could be called with 25 percent in.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2016, 08:11:28 PM »
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It's not a slight lead. Clinton nearly has a nominal lead in SD. Bernie is behind early votes or no.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2016, 08:12:26 PM »
Bernie capped at 50.8 now in SD. This is close to being called for Clinton.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #23 on: June 07, 2016, 08:15:34 PM »
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1/17th of the votes are in. Bernie's not going to climb more than 1/17th of the remaining votes. That puts him at 50.8 percent, which would win him SD. So I can't call it for Hillary yet.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2016, 08:16:42 PM »
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The neat part is because of the math, this is invariant across the whole state. It's harder to move big piles from smaller piles.
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