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Author Topic: PA-PPP: Clinton 41 Trump 40 Johnson 6  (Read 3347 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: June 08, 2016, 01:45:32 pm »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/pennsylvania-close-sanders-supporter-unity-would-make-it-not-close.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Stein 3

Democrats lead a generic ballot question for President 45/41

Head to head, they're tied at 44-44.

Sanders vs Trump head to head is 51-39.

Only 72% of Sanders supporters support Clinton. If Clinton got half of them, her lead over Trump head to head would be 47-40.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2016, 01:47:36 pm by HillOfANight »Logged
Arch
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2016, 01:54:50 pm »

So about 86% of Sanders supporters then. Doesn't sound too hard. Time to get to work on unifying and PA is in the bag!
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2016, 01:56:41 pm »

I'm really starting to lose faith in PPP's accuracy.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2016, 01:59:11 pm »

Oh gosh, can I get a movie if I cast the deciding vote of this election?!

(Also, as Seeger asked, "Tell me, is that blood upon my hands?")

e: Keep in mind what a Sanders voter in PA is like. Remember the age of the demographics. The undecideds may not be BernieBros but rather Northeasterners. the 72% figure of Sanders supporters is based on what he received in this poll rather than a primary. That is an absolutely flawed tool in determining her potential support. It has nothing to do with his primary voters (who are also in danger of not voting for her, but they are also a very small subset.) Look at who the undecideds actually are. Highest ideology of undecideds was among "Somewhat Conservative" - Sanders doubles Clinton's total in that block (including peeling off 9% from Trump voters! So it's again flawed to think she has a better chance at them than Trump.)

Likewise, the number of undecided voters doesn't change with moderates. Bernie just takes it from a tie to a 19 point advantage. Moderates and Somewhat Conservative individuals are the two largest groups by far. The liberal undecideds who are "Bernie or Bust" are literally 2-2.5% of the electorate. Nothing to sneeze at and surely helpful, but it wouldn't "deliver the state" even if she can get them.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2016, 02:22:20 pm by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »Logged
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2016, 02:00:58 pm »

Oh gosh, can I get a movie if I cast the deciding vote of this election?!

(Also, as Seeger asked, "Tell me, is that blood upon my hands?")

I always wondered who he voted for at the end of that movie lol.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2016, 02:03:37 pm »

Oh gosh, can I get a movie if I cast the deciding vote of this election?!

(Also, as Seeger asked, "Tell me, is that blood upon my hands?")

I always wondered who he voted for at the end of that movie lol.

Oh yes that thing...well, I was referring to my love of Can't Stump the Trump rather than my love of family.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2016, 02:10:19 pm »

PPP has turned into real junk lately.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2016, 02:17:58 pm »

In the 2 way race Trump vs Clinton, 22% of 18-29% are undecided, 16% of 30-45 are undecided, 8% 45-65, and 7% for 65+.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2016, 02:19:51 pm »

This election will be much closer than it ever should have, makes me think the winner will be doomed to one term
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2016, 02:21:49 pm »

Disappointed they didn't poll the AG race, or Charlie Dent vs Bob Casey. Oh well, but still a good poll. I was waiting for it to come out. Pretty close results.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2016, 02:22:00 pm »

We'll see what happens now that the Democratic primary has come to a close.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2016, 02:23:18 pm »

This thread is confirmation bias at its worst

• Trump is a joke candidate
• PPP shows a close race in a light blue state
• PPP is a junk pollster because Trump is a joke candidate

Let's not dismiss the possibility that PPP - one of the most reputable pollsters in the country over the past few years - just might know what they're talking about.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2016, 02:23:47 pm »

This is the best Trump can do after a 5 weeks head start? Ha!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
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« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2016, 02:24:14 pm »

In the 2 way race Trump vs Clinton, 22% of 18-29% are undecided, 16% of 30-45 are undecided, 8% 45-65, and 7% for 65+.

Yes, young conservatives don't have a candidate. That won't behave like the rest of the young sample if and when they decide. The ones who are part of the Bernie movement are such a small part of an old state.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2016, 02:27:59 pm by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »Logged
Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2016, 02:26:23 pm »

This thread is confirmation bias at its worst

• Trump is a joke candidate
• PPP shows a close race in a light blue state
• PPP is a junk pollster because Trump is a joke candidate

Let's not dismiss the possibility that PPP - one of the most reputable pollsters in the country over the past few years - just might know what they're talking about.
Nah, PPP has been churning out junk general election polls for a while.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2016, 03:10:20 pm »

Glorious result. And not a junk poll!

PA is in play and Hillary! is in potential trouble because of that. But then again, PA always teases.

But we're sticking with Crooked Hillary! is a terrible candidate and Trump has Reagan Democrat appeal in the Northeast.

Tie Tie Tie!
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BetoBro
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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2016, 03:14:47 pm »

Glorious result. And not a junk poll!

PA is in play and Hillary! is in potential trouble because of that. But then again, PA always teases.

But we're sticking with Crooked Hillary! is a terrible candidate and Trump has Reagan Democrat appeal in the Northeast.

Tie Tie Tie!

Keep telling yourself that. Good luck with your fool's gold rush.
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Arch
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« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2016, 03:15:04 pm »

Glorious result. And not a junk poll!

PA is in play and Hillary! is in potential trouble because of that. But then again, PA always teases.

But we're sticking with Crooked Hillary! is a terrible candidate and Trump has Reagan Democrat appeal in the Northeast.

Tie Tie Tie!

Keep telling yourself that. Good luck with your fool's gold rush.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2016, 03:30:55 pm »

Glorious result. And not a junk poll!

PA is in play and Hillary! is in potential trouble because of that. But then again, PA always teases.

But we're sticking with Crooked Hillary! is a terrible candidate and Trump has Reagan Democrat appeal in the Northeast.

Tie Tie Tie!

Keep telling yourself that. Good luck with your fool's gold rush.
Honestly, I am not shocked at that result with where the race is at right now. Trump does have appeal to the so-called Reagan Democrats and there are a good number of them in PA. The state skews older.

With that said, I have no doubt that PA will be a battleground this cycle. Whether Trump can take it is open for debate. PA has proven elusive for many a Republican candidate.

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2016, 03:33:36 pm »

Glorious result. And not a junk poll!

PA is in play and Hillary! is in potential trouble because of that. But then again, PA always teases.

But we're sticking with Crooked Hillary! is a terrible candidate and Trump has Reagan Democrat appeal in the Northeast.

Tie Tie Tie!

Keep telling yourself that. Good luck with your fool's gold rush.
Honestly, I am not shocked at that result with where the race is at right now. Trump does have appeal to the so-called Reagan Democrats and there are a good number of them in PA. The state skews older.

With that said, I have no doubt that PA will be a battleground this cycle. Whether Trump can take it is open for debate. PA has proven elusive for many a Republican candidate.



If you actually read the poll, the entire reason this is tied is Sanders supporters, not Regan democrats.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2016, 04:01:16 pm »

Oh yes, Trump does have appeal among Reagan Democrats Republicans.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2016, 04:15:56 pm »

I'm gonna start losing sleep thanks to disgruntled Bernie backers.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2016, 04:18:31 pm »

TRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUMP

Ahem. If Trump is in play in PA, OH and FL, it's excellent news for him.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2016, 04:20:42 pm »

TRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUMP

Ahem. If Trump is in play in PA, OH and FL, it's excellent news for him.
Inelastic swing states are competitive in dubious May/June polling, news at 11.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2016, 04:26:28 pm »

Glorious result. And not a junk poll!

PA is in play and Hillary! is in potential trouble because of that. But then again, PA always teases.

But we're sticking with Crooked Hillary! is a terrible candidate and Trump has Reagan Democrat appeal in the Northeast.

Tie Tie Tie!

Disqualified from talking about politics. good day sir.
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