PA-PPP: Clinton 41 Trump 40 Johnson 6 (user search)
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  PA-PPP: Clinton 41 Trump 40 Johnson 6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-PPP: Clinton 41 Trump 40 Johnson 6  (Read 5359 times)
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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Posts: 14,764
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« on: June 08, 2016, 01:59:11 PM »
« edited: June 08, 2016, 02:22:20 PM by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »

Oh gosh, can I get a movie if I cast the deciding vote of this election?!

(Also, as Seeger asked, "Tell me, is that blood upon my hands?")

e: Keep in mind what a Sanders voter in PA is like. Remember the age of the demographics. The undecideds may not be BernieBros but rather Northeasterners. the 72% figure of Sanders supporters is based on what he received in this poll rather than a primary. That is an absolutely flawed tool in determining her potential support. It has nothing to do with his primary voters (who are also in danger of not voting for her, but they are also a very small subset.) Look at who the undecideds actually are. Highest ideology of undecideds was among "Somewhat Conservative" - Sanders doubles Clinton's total in that block (including peeling off 9% from Trump voters! So it's again flawed to think she has a better chance at them than Trump.)

Likewise, the number of undecided voters doesn't change with moderates. Bernie just takes it from a tie to a 19 point advantage. Moderates and Somewhat Conservative individuals are the two largest groups by far. The liberal undecideds who are "Bernie or Bust" are literally 2-2.5% of the electorate. Nothing to sneeze at and surely helpful, but it wouldn't "deliver the state" even if she can get them.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,764
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2016, 02:03:37 PM »

Oh gosh, can I get a movie if I cast the deciding vote of this election?!

(Also, as Seeger asked, "Tell me, is that blood upon my hands?")

I always wondered who he voted for at the end of that movie lol.

Oh yes that thing...well, I was referring to my love of Can't Stump the Trump rather than my love of family.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,764
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2016, 02:24:14 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2016, 02:27:59 PM by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »

In the 2 way race Trump vs Clinton, 22% of 18-29% are undecided, 16% of 30-45 are undecided, 8% 45-65, and 7% for 65+.

Yes, young conservatives don't have a candidate. That won't behave like the rest of the young sample if and when they decide. The ones who are part of the Bernie movement are such a small part of an old state.
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