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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
  2016 partisan crosstab data
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Reginald
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« on: June 08, 2016, 09:05:29 pm »

(Feel free to move this, mods, but I figured this should be fine here considering pbrower’s thread)

I’ve been keeping track of crosstabs according to party affiliation in the Clinton/Trump matchup since the beginning of March. The spreadsheet I’ve been building includes national polls as well as those for individual states. My intent here is to get all this information organized in an easily understandable way for at least this specific cleavage in the electorate*, and post some textual and graphic information to summarize how polls are capturing the partisan breakdown as the election goes on.

Some important notes and qualifications about what I’m tracking:
1) I’m only including polls that are posted here, to this board. I don’t go looking around for polls, but I will try and see if there are crosstabs available if the poll report that’s linked doesn’t include them.
2) I only care about polls that show the crosstabs I want. I’ve ignored polls that don’t have these data. That’s what this forum’s database is for.
3) Aside from national polls, I’m only going to track competitive states. They’ll get the bulk of the attention anyway. It’s a pretty generous list: FL OH VA CO IA PA WI NH NV NC MI MO GA AZ. I’ll include UT if it holds up.
4) I try my best to document only the Clinton/Trump head-to-head. Any poll that elevates Johnson, Stein, or some nebulous “Other Guy” option to the level of the major party candidates is ignored to the best of my ability (but I think I’ve accidentally included one or two, oh well.)
5) Some polls are pretty weird with how they stratify the partisan crosstab. For example, SUSA likes to make “Lean Rep” and “Lean Dem” their own partisan categories. I haven’t really decided what I want to do with that, but it seems like most of the time these “leaners” are considered Independents, so I’m thinking that’s how I’ll tackle that from now on.
6) I try my best to ignore daily tracking polls.
7) I ignore ARG and Gravis. Deal with it. If I see a couple more Rasmussen polls that’re such obvious outliers, I’ll blacklist them as well. Anything else is fair game if it meets the other criteria.

As of right now I have 28 national polls and 42 polls for various states. I’ve also grouped the polls into time intervals to better see longitudinal change. The two intervals I’m using are 2/29-4/30 and 5/1-6/8. This actually works really well considering Trump assumed the nomination right at the beginning of May, and I’ll stop this current interval now since Clinton has won. So really, the first interval has polls from when both parties’ nominations were being contested and the second has those from when the Republicans’ race was wrapped up.

So I’ll be posting some numbers, charts, and maps intermittently here. Will try to avoid explanation or interpretation. Questions, ideas, etc. are of course welcome.



* I’ve actually started documenting the head-to-head for Whites and Hispanics in national polls, but that’s only been going on since early May. More to come there.
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Reginald
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2016, 09:06:04 pm »

(Placeholder if I need it)
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Reginald
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2016, 09:08:06 pm »
« Edited: June 08, 2016, 09:11:56 pm by Reginald »

Some time-series and boxplots, showing how the race has changed from March and April, to the last month since Trump assumed the GOP nomination. Y-axis varies obviously.
   


REPUBLICANS
BOXPLOT COMPARISON: 2/29-4/30 (16 polls) and 5/1-6/8 (12 polls)
CLINTON VS. TRUMP
U.S. NATIONAL POLLS

1) Republicans indicating they’d vote for Trump:



2) Republicans indicating they’d vote for Clinton:



3) Republicans indicating something else (undecided/wouldn’t vote/other candidate):

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Reginald
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2016, 09:09:56 pm »
« Edited: June 08, 2016, 09:12:05 pm by Reginald »



DEMOCRATS
BOXPLOT COMPARISON: 2/29-4/30 (16 polls) and 5/1-6/8 (12 polls)
CLINTON VS. TRUMP   
U.S. NATIONAL POLLS

1) Democrats indicating they’d vote for Clinton:



2) Democrats indicating they’d vote for Trump:



3) Democrats indicating something else (undecided/wouldn’t vote/other candidate):


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Reginald
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2016, 09:11:10 pm »



INDEPENDENTS/OTHERS
BOXPLOT COMPARISON: 2/29-4/30 (16 polls) and 5/1-6/8 (12 polls)
CLINTON VS. TRUMP   
U.S. NATIONAL POLLS

1) Indys/others indicating they’d vote for Clinton:



2) Indys/others indicating they’d vote for Trump:



3) Indys/others indicating something else (undecided/wouldn’t vote/other candidate):

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Reginald
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2016, 09:20:21 pm »
« Edited: June 21, 2016, 01:27:14 pm by Draper Sterling »

NATIONAL POLLS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MAY

Pollster / Date / Margin / Clinton% / Trump% / Other% / RClinton% / RTrump% / ROther% / DClinton% / DTrump% / DOther% / IClinton% / ITrump% / IOther%

CNN / 5-1 / D+13 / 54 / 41 / 5 / 12 / 84 / 4 / 94 / 5 / 1 / 51 / 40 / 9
PPP / 5-9 / D+6 / 47 / 41 / 12 / 8 / 82 / 11 / 84 / 9 / 7 / 38 / 36 / 26
YouGov-Economist / 5-9 / D+2 / 42 / 40 / 18 / 4 / 80 / 15 / 89 / 5 / 6 / 41 / 34 / 24
McLaughlin / 5-16 / D+4 / 46 / 42 / 12 / 11 / 83 / 7 / 81 / 12 / 8 / 41 / 34 / 25
Fox News / 5-17 / R+3 / 42 / 45 / 12 / 7 / 82 / 12 / 83 / 6 / 11 / 30 / 46 / 24
CBS-NYT / 5-17 / D+6 / 47 / 41 / 12 / 6 / 85 / 9 / 88 / 5 / 7 / 40 / 40 / 20
NBC-WSJ / 5-19 / D+3 / 46 / 43 / 11 / 6 / 86 / 8 / 83 / 9 / 8 / 37 / 42 / 21
ABC-WaPo / 5-19 / R+2 / 44 / 46 / 10 / 8 / 85 / 7 / 86 / 11 / 3 / 35 / 48 / 17
YouGov-Economist / 5-23 / D+1 / 42 / 41 / 17 / 3 / 83 / 14 / 82 / 8 / 10 / 36 / 40 / 26
Reuters-Ipsos / 5-25 / D+5 / 41 / 36 / 23 / 9 / 70 / 21 / 70 / 12 / 18 / 30 / 31 / 40
Quinnipiac / 5-30 / D+4 / 45 / 41 / 14 / 4 / 86 / 10 / 90 / 6 / 4 / 37 / 40 / 13
IBD-TIPP / 6-5 / D+5 / 45 / 40 / 15 / 12 / 74 / 14 / 84 / 8 / 8 / 35 / 41 / 24

Reuters-Ipsos / 6-8 / D+8 / 42 / 34 / 23 / 8 / 71 / 21 / 74 / 8 / 18 / 29 / 33 / 38
Fox News / 6-8 / D+3 / 42 / 39 / 19 / 6 / 79 / 15 / 79 / 8 / 13 / 30 / 35 / 35
CBS / 6-13 / D+6 / 43 / 37 / 20 / 6 / 73 / 21 / 81 / 6 / 13 / 35 / 37 / 28
Monmouth / 6-19 / D+7 / 47 / 40 / 13 / 8 / 84 / 8 / 87 / 6 / 7 / 42 / 37 / 20
CNN-ORC / 6-19 / D+5 / 47 / 42 / 11 / 6 / 86 / 8 / 90 / 6 / 5 / 42 / 41 / 16
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Reginald
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2016, 01:40:34 pm »

Bumping with some initial crosstab data for the white and hispanic subsamples. You'll notice the latter data are kinda out of date, but recent polls have been mostly showing a "non-white" subsample for some reason instead.

CLINTON VS. TRUMP
WHITE VOTERS
U.S. NATIONAL POLLS (5 most recent)

Poll / Date / Clinton% / Trump% / Other%

CNN-ORC / 6-19 / 38 / 51 / 11
Monmouth / 6-19 / 38 / 49 / 13
CBS / 6-13 / 37 / 43 / 20
Fox News / 6-8 / 33 / 49 / 18
IBD-TIPP / 6-5 / 36 / 48 / 15

CLINTON VS. TRUMP
HISPANIC VOTERS
U.S. NATIONAL POLLS (3 most recent)

Poll / Date / Clinton% / Trump% / Other%

Quinnipiac / 5-30 / 65 / 18 / 17
YouGov-Economist / 5-23 / 56 / 21 / 22
NBC-WSJ / 5-19 / 68 / 20 / 12
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