MO-Missouri Scout/Remington Research: Trump+6

[Tender Branson]

Q: If the candidates for President of the United States were the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote?

46% Donald Trump
40% Hillary Clinton

Survey conducted May 20 through May 21, 2016. 1,301 likely voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2016 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-2.8%. Margins of Error within specific demographics (crosstabs) is significantly higher due to smaller sample size. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

http://moscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/MOScout-Weekly-Poll-May21.pdf

[Xing]

Overperforming Obama by 3 points? Not bad.

[Matty]

Trump will win the state by high single digits.

[Green Line]

Missouri has a look of the poorly educated, so not surprising.

[IceSpear]

Trump will win the state by high single digits.

Probably. Sorry to burst the Atlas meme, but Missouri is not the new Arkansas. Dems have a solid floor there due to the urban areas.

I do think she'd win it before she won IN or GA though, not that that's saying much.

[Matty]

June has got to be on the most annoying months of polling. Seems like every cycle you get these random polls out of non-swing states that appear closer than expected.

[Holmes]

June has got to be on the most annoying months of polling. Seems like every cycle you get these random polls out of non-swing states that appear closer than expected.

The summer in general is pretty meh when it comes to polling.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Missouri has trended republican in every election after '92. It's possible that it goes from the R+13 it was in 2012 to ~R+10 due to no more Obama Racism, but that's it. Hillary winning an R+10 state? Highly Unlikely.

[pbrower2a]

Republican pollster.

MO will be close -- uncomfortably close for Trump. Even if he wins it he or the GOP will need to spend huge resources to defend it, at the least for the Senate seat.

[pbrower2a]

June has got to be on the most annoying months of polling. Seems like every cycle you get these random polls out of non-swing states that appear closer than expected.

Missouri used to be a swing state. So that he could avoid hurting the Democratic Senator from Missouri, Barack Obama did not campaign there. Thus the near-10% loss for Obama in 2012 despite being very close to winning the state in 2008.

Hillary Clinton cannot possibly do as badly as Barack Obama in the Mountain South (which includes Kentucky, West Virginia and Missouri south of the Missouri River aside from Greater Kansas City and Greater St. Louis.

Southern Missouri is much like Arkansas in its politics. Northern Missouri is more like Iowa. In between are Kansas City and St. Louis; take your pick (I-70? US 50? The Missouri River? on what divides northern and southern Missouri. 

Missouri will be much closer in 2016 than in 2012.

[Eraserhead]

This is probably going to be Fool's Gold for Hillary. If I was her I wouldn't mess around here much unless it's October and it looks like it's going to be landslide for her.

[Rick Grimes]

fake poll clinton is ahead here

[Gass3268]

This is probably going to be Fool's Gold for Hillary. If I was her I wouldn't mess around here much unless it's October and it looks like it's going to be landslide for her.

Agree with this, also agree that there is just too much Kansas City and St. Louis for Missouri to go the way of the Upper South.

[Rick Grimes]

This is probably going to be Fool's Gold for Hillary. If I was her I wouldn't mess around here much unless it's October and it looks like it's going to be landslide for her.

no missouri is the PERFECT state to flip just send bill there.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Trump and his team are so incompetent Hillary could probably trick him into spending time in MO. Actually, she could probably trick him into spending time in AL, that's how clueless he is.

[Seriously?]

fake poll clinton is ahead here

No. Missouri is probably one of the likeliest of "Tossup" states to trend Republican, as it has in past cycles. It's not as much of a battleground state as it was in the early 2000s. Given the state of the polling, this result seems about right.

If Hillary! is making multiple trips to Missouri in October, we know that the map is favoring her. More likely than not, however, this one will fall into the Trump camp. It will probably be lean Republican by October (in the R +5-10 point range).

[Reginald]

Last poll I've seen from this outfit (March 4) had Trump +5, so not much movement aside from a bit of a "Republicans uniting" effect.

[YaBoyNY]

Missouri has trended republican in every election after '92. It's possible that it goes from the R+13 it was in 2012 to ~R+10 due to no more Obama Racism, but that's it. Hillary winning an R+10 state? Highly Unlikely.

R+13 in 2012? What the ?

[Rick Grimes]

fake poll clinton is ahead here

No. Missouri is probably one of the likeliest of "Tossup" states to trend Republican, as it has in past cycles. It's not as much of a battleground state as it was in the early 2000s. Given the state of the polling, this result seems about right.

If Hillary! is making multiple trips to Missouri in October, we know that the map is favoring her. More likely than not, however, this one will fall into the Trump camp. It will probably be lean Republican by October (in the R +5-10 point range).

no missouri is a perfect state for clinton. i was there last month trust me its very pro clinton especially in the SE area.

[IceSpear]

fake poll clinton is ahead here

No. Missouri is probably one of the likeliest of "Tossup" states to trend Republican, as it has in past cycles. It's not as much of a battleground state as it was in the early 2000s. Given the state of the polling, this result seems about right.

If Hillary! is making multiple trips to Missouri in October, we know that the map is favoring her. More likely than not, however, this one will fall into the Trump camp. It will probably be lean Republican by October (in the R +5-10 point range).

no missouri is a perfect state for clinton. i was there last month trust me its very pro clinton especially in the SE area.

Well, that settles it I guess. Missouri has now went from Arkansas 2.0 to Safe Clinton in a single Rick Grimes post. Alert the #analysis maps.

[Rick Grimes]

fake poll clinton is ahead here

No. Missouri is probably one of the likeliest of "Tossup" states to trend Republican, as it has in past cycles. It's not as much of a battleground state as it was in the early 2000s. Given the state of the polling, this result seems about right.

If Hillary! is making multiple trips to Missouri in October, we know that the map is favoring her. More likely than not, however, this one will fall into the Trump camp. It will probably be lean Republican by October (in the R +5-10 point range).

no missouri is a perfect state for clinton. i was there last month trust me its very pro clinton especially in the SE area.

Well, that settles it I guess. Missouri has now went from Arkansas 2.0 to Safe Clinton in a single Rick Grimes post. Alert the #analysis maps.

its not SAFE clinton, trump can still win it but it is getting more and more unlikely. right now my map has it as likely D unlike arkansas which is nearing solid D.

[user12345]

fake poll clinton is ahead here

No. Missouri is probably one of the likeliest of "Tossup" states to trend Republican, as it has in past cycles. It's not as much of a battleground state as it was in the early 2000s. Given the state of the polling, this result seems about right.

If Hillary! is making multiple trips to Missouri in October, we know that the map is favoring her. More likely than not, however, this one will fall into the Trump camp. It will probably be lean Republican by October (in the R +5-10 point range).

no missouri is a perfect state for clinton. i was there last month trust me its very pro clinton especially in the SE area.

I live in SE Missouri and I have only met 1 person who genuinely liked Clinton. Everyone else is either muh Benghazi or just meh about her.

[Rick Grimes]

fake poll clinton is ahead here

No. Missouri is probably one of the likeliest of "Tossup" states to trend Republican, as it has in past cycles. It's not as much of a battleground state as it was in the early 2000s. Given the state of the polling, this result seems about right.

If Hillary! is making multiple trips to Missouri in October, we know that the map is favoring her. More likely than not, however, this one will fall into the Trump camp. It will probably be lean Republican by October (in the R +5-10 point range).

no missouri is a perfect state for clinton. i was there last month trust me its very pro clinton especially in the SE area.

I live in SE Missouri and I have only met 1 person who genuinely liked Clinton. Everyone else is either muh Benghazi or just meh about her.

what part, because mississippi county MO is ALL CLINTON. bill is a local hero there.

[RJEvans]

I think MO, AZ and GA are ripe for picking for the Dems, but so far neither the Clinton camp or Priorities USA seem to be investing there.

[YPestis25]

fake poll clinton is ahead here

No. Missouri is probably one of the likeliest of "Tossup" states to trend Republican, as it has in past cycles. It's not as much of a battleground state as it was in the early 2000s. Given the state of the polling, this result seems about right.

If Hillary! is making multiple trips to Missouri in October, we know that the map is favoring her. More likely than not, however, this one will fall into the Trump camp. It will probably be lean Republican by October (in the R +5-10 point range).

no missouri is a perfect state for clinton. i was there last month trust me its very pro clinton especially in the SE area.

I live in SE Missouri and I have only met 1 person who genuinely liked Clinton. Everyone else is either muh Benghazi or just meh about her.

what part, because mississippi county MO is ALL CLINTON. bill is a local hero there.

The Bootheel is quite a bit different from the rest of SE MO. The Bootheel is an old southern democratic area that's pretty republican now, so it would make sense that Bill is popular there, but I doubt that would translate into popularity for Hilldawg.