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  Axiom Strategies/Remington Research: Trump in good shape in swing state counties
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Author Topic: Axiom Strategies/Remington Research: Trump in good shape in swing state counties  (Read 1592 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 09, 2016, 12:18:39 am »



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http://axiomstrategies.com/abc

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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2016, 12:20:21 am »

Ahuh... tell me more
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2016, 12:24:26 am »

BTW:

Axiom/Remington is a Republican pollster.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Roe

The numbers are suggesting though that Clinton is in good shape in CO and VA, when compared with the 2012 county results.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2016, 12:29:46 am »

That Luzerne number is so comical I may have to bookmark this.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2016, 01:17:37 am »

Meaningless, junk poll from noted sleaze Jeff Roe.
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Holmes
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« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2016, 01:31:33 am »

That Luzerne number is so comical I may have to bookmark this.

More than Trump +12 in Washoe?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2016, 01:53:13 am »

Wow, Trump must be doing awful in Colorado and Virginia.
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Rick Grimes
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« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2016, 03:45:04 am »

these seem good i think PA is in the bag for trump but there are other swing states clinton can win biug in like missouri with the big moe.
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Kevin
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2016, 09:02:38 am »
« Edited: June 10, 2016, 02:29:04 pm by Kevin »

Quick question,

Isn't Luzerne overwhelmingly white and working class? If so I'd expect Trump to be ahead as its home to his base voters. Although prob not by 17 points.
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Angrie
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2016, 11:28:16 am »

I like how they somehow picked Watauga as the key swing county in North Carolina... LOL. Throw it in the trash on the basis of that stupidity alone!
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Judy Baar Topinka
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2016, 02:11:26 pm »

Nevada voters are repugnant, very unstable.  It wouldn't surprise me if they go wild for the amoral candidate in the race, so I'll move it to tossup.  Reagan Democrats in Luzerne like Trump, so no surprise there.  He is in trouble in Virginia though.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2016, 04:45:17 pm »
« Edited: June 09, 2016, 04:47:58 pm by Seriously? »

That Luzerne number is so comical I may have to bookmark this.
I don't know why you think Luzerne's results are that comical. I believe Luzerne was Trump's best county in the primary, he pulled 77% of the vote there.

Hillary! won the county 52-47 on the D side, with Trump getting 8,000 more votes if you do the math with their election day totals.

With the unification process only beginning on the D side, a hefty Trump lead there (assuming it's on the high end of the MOE) is not an unexpected result. There wasn't much needed to consolidate the Rs in that county.

Will that margin be there on election day? Probably not. But at this point in time, I am not shocked at a double-digit lead.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2016, 04:49:15 pm »

Roe was Ted's campaign manager, I met him a few times and I've heard the Cruz inside polling that Axiom did was pretty correct for the most part and then were pretty good from a few friends in IA that they were spot on in Iowa.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2016, 06:01:13 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/pennsylvania

1.57M votes for the GOP, 1.65M votes for the Dems in the primaries. Trump 892K Clinton 920K.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2016, 06:04:05 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/pennsylvania

1.57M votes for the GOP, 1.65M votes for the Dems in the primaries. Trump 892K Clinton 920K.
Ok so what.
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cxs018
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« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2016, 06:06:37 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/pennsylvania

1.57M votes for the GOP, 1.65M votes for the Dems in the primaries. Trump 892K Clinton 920K.

And Clinton got more votes than Trump in Oklahoma. Does that mean that Oklahoma could be the true swing state?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2016, 07:52:42 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/pennsylvania

1.57M votes for the GOP, 1.65M votes for the Dems in the primaries. Trump 892K Clinton 920K.
Apples and oranges. If Trump didn't sow up the nomination a month ago, GOP > Dems.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2016, 07:55:29 pm »

Nevada and Virginia are the most off thing on that, IMO.

(Besides Clinton winning Colorado;))
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #18 on: June 10, 2016, 02:31:31 am »

Washoe county makes sense if you assume 1) Hispanic underpoll and 2) lack of Dem unification at this stage).

54-46 for Clinton would be on par with a solid statewide win.


As for Luzerne, if there is one place where the concept of Reagan Democrats for Trump exists, it is Luzerne County, PA. It is basically an endless wasteland of bombed out rust belt towns, full of pro-life, protectionist, Casey Democrats. Plus it also has Hazelton and thus the immigration issue is hot botton in the area as well.
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