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  UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
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Author Topic: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play  (Read 3937 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 11, 2016, 11:02:42 pm »

Result:

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/315450242/Salt-Lake-Tribune-President-Poll
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2016, 11:06:06 pm »

lmao

Clinton: 35
Trump: 35
Johnson: 13
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2016, 11:08:29 pm »

Oh my, tied at 35.

I love what Lee Carrillo had to say:

"Like most people, I think I'm pretty dismayed by the candidates, but I think Hillary Clinton is probably going to be a more effective president. But I don't like either one of them," she said. "I think [Trump] is practically a maniac. Everyone talks about, 'Oh, he's so smart with money,' or whatever. I just think he has no qualifications for president, and I haven't liked one single thing I heard him say."
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2016, 11:11:08 pm »

And the socialist is leading!

Sanders: 37
Trump: 35
Johnson: 12

Favorable numbers for the frontrunners are virtually identical:

Clinton: 21/67
Trump: 20/65
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2016, 11:13:46 pm »

The swing in Utah in 2016 is going to be hysterical.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2016, 11:22:21 pm »

So that's three different polling companies that have shown Utah competitive.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2016, 11:33:04 pm »

Utah might end up like North Dakota in 2008. Polling could continue to show a close race, and while Trump will almost certainly still win in the end, his margin might be very underwhelming.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2016, 11:35:33 pm »

I'm telling you, if Clinton is leading comfortably by October and UT is still in play, drop a million or two and try to make a statement to the country by having a Democrat (the most hated Democrat) win one of the most conservative states in the union.
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wifikitten
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2016, 11:48:25 pm »

With 71% of voters minds made up, this is gonna be very interesting.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2016, 11:53:48 pm »

I don't know if dropping $1-2 million into Utah in October is really the smartest move, unless things look really locked up by then and team Hillary is just sitting on piles of money. The only downballot Democrat that would help is Doug Owens, and he seems pretty good right now anyway. Would probably be best to dump that sort of money in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio, that money can really help Democrats in Senate races there.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2016, 12:34:08 am »

The UT situation reminds me of the Austrian Presidential election results in the conservative states of Tyrol and Vorarlberg:

In the 1986 presidential election (and in virtually all others), they voted for the conservative candidate Kurt Waldheim with 69% and 71%.

But in the 2016 election, they voted for the left-wing/Green candidate Van der Bellen with 51% and 59%.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2016, 12:42:37 am »

Amazing. If Romney and Trump keep wailing on each other I think Clinton might be able to barely eke this one out.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2016, 12:45:02 am »

I don't know if dropping $1-2 million into Utah in October is really the smartest move, unless things look really locked up by then and team Hillary is just sitting on piles of money. The only downballot Democrat that would help is Doug Owens, and he seems pretty good right now anyway. Would probably be best to dump that sort of money in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio, that money can really help Democrats in Senate races there.

Maybe do a small buy in the Republican primary race promoting Johnson - he only leads the Democrat in the race by 13, as opposed to Governor Herbert leading the Democrat by nearly 30.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2016, 12:47:52 am »

I also find it interesting that Hillary polls 10% better than Obama in 2012, while she only has a favourable rating of 20% in the state ...

Probably some cross-over Romney-Mormons or additional Latino-voters with a strong hatred of Trump.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2016, 01:11:14 am »

#RickGrimesVindicated
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« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2016, 01:13:05 am »

The bigger question here is, how D is Arizona right now with the Mormon and Hispanic backlash?
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Anonymous
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2016, 01:15:21 am »

The bigger question here is, how D is Arizona right now with the Mormon and Hispanic backlash?

If these polls in Utah continue to show a close race, Arizona will certainly be in play. This is a state that she won twice, so she could do better with whites than Obama, and I think Arizona has some Jews, too, that will almost assuredly vote for her. If Trumpkin manages to win the state though, I think it'll be less than 5 points. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2016, 01:20:17 am »

The bigger question here is, how D is Arizona right now with the Mormon and Hispanic backlash?

Arizona was Trump +4 according to a PPP poll in mid-May.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2016, 01:27:42 am »

The bigger question here is, how D is Arizona right now with the Mormon and Hispanic backlash?

Arizona was Trump +4 according to a PPP poll in mid-May.

Could be tied now. Seriously, I will love it to see Hillary shock the GOP and do a rally in Salt Lake City, just for kicks.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2016, 01:59:43 am »

Turn the usual Mormon support for Republican pols tepid and intensify the Hispanic participation in the 2016 Presidential election, and Arizona goes for Hillary Clinton.


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publicunofficial
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« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2016, 02:16:41 am »

If we still get competitive Utah polls 2-3 months from now, at what point does "Swing State Utah" stop being a joke?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2016, 02:25:26 am »

If we still get competitive Utah polls 2-3 months from now, at what point does "Swing State Utah" stop being a joke?

I'll believe it if it's still showing it in September. But like someone else said, even if it is, it'll probably end up being like the Dakotas in 2008 anyway.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2016, 04:07:57 am »

I don't know if dropping $1-2 million into Utah in October is really the smartest move, unless things look really locked up by then and team Hillary is just sitting on piles of money. The only downballot Democrat that would help is Doug Owens, and he seems pretty good right now anyway. Would probably be best to dump that sort of money in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio, that money can really help Democrats in Senate races there.

There are diminishing returns. If Hillary and her allies end up raising $1-2 billion, I'd say a minor investment like that would be a good one. If UT-04 is actually in play, I could easily see the DCCC spending $1-2 million in that one district. I'd like to force Trump to play defense in Utah and I also want to give Hillary both Houses of Congress. Winning seats like UT-04 makes winning the majority in the House much easier.

(I may be dreaming, but can you imagine seeing a State of the Union with President Hillary Clinton, Vice President Elizabeth Warren, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi? I want to see that more than anything.)

I'll believe it if it's still showing it in September. But like someone else said, even if it is, it'll probably end up being like the Dakotas in 2008 anyway.

Probably. I actually fell for that in 2008. I went out on a big limb and predicted Obama to win North Dakota that year. I remember a lot of analysts had both Dakotas as toss-ups at the end of 2008, including Charlie Cook. Admittedly, it was a gamble and I lost. Hillary would have to be up by high single-digits in the polling average at the end of October for me to ever predict her winning Utah. I'd love to see it happen, even if it meant I got a wrong prediction.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2016, 07:17:57 am »

Favorable numbers for the frontrunners are virtually identical:

Clinton: 21/67
Trump: 20/65

Has there ever been a state poll in any state in which the favorability of both parties' presidential nominees was below 25%?  I don't think I've ever seen anything like that.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2016, 07:22:43 am »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?
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