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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CA-USC/LA Times: Clinton +30
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Author Topic: CA-USC/LA Times: Clinton +30  (Read 1825 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #25 on: June 14, 2016, 01:18:16 am »

RV poll as opposed to LV.


You know that the election is still 5 months away, right?

Five months from now, there will still be a 30 point Clinton-Trump lead in Cali, and yes it is an RV vs LV poll, but there will be another 500-750k+ newly registered voters that will overwhelmingly vote against the latest reincarnation of Pete Wilson, but much more of a hater.

LBJ---- totally agree with you on this and RV/LV is not the best argument to make on the final margins. I could see a scenario where it is a 62-38 or 63-27 margin, but that would presuppose that a  huge chunk of Bernie voters sit out the election or go indie, but honestly much less likely in Cali than other parts of the country.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #26 on: June 14, 2016, 08:52:03 am »

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-california-exit-poll-20160613-snap-story.html

Clinton: 61
Trump: 31

But, but, butů the Trumpster told me that he can win the Golden State.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #27 on: June 14, 2016, 12:19:05 pm »
« Edited: June 14, 2016, 12:26:08 pm by Seriously? »

RV poll as opposed to LV.


You know that the election is still 5 months away, right?
Of course.

I am well aware that just about all of the national polls and some of the state polls are using RV instead of LV. 

3 of the 5 most recent California polls were LV. (C+14, C+10, C+15) The other two were RV (C+30, C+20). The RV polls were more pro-Clinton. Just putting that out there.

As I have stated, Trump will lose CA by 20-25 points at the end of the day, barring some uniform national swing towards the Donald. (I don't see a ton of that in a contested open election).
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President Johnson
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« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2016, 12:20:03 pm »

I wonder why they poll states like California. TRUMP has no chance here.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2016, 12:27:02 pm »
« Edited: June 14, 2016, 12:57:27 pm by Seriously? »

I wonder why they poll states like California. TRUMP has no chance here.
Downticket races. And a lot of the polling sans this survey were done at primary time, where it made sense to poll. (Marginal additional costs to ask the GE question).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: June 14, 2016, 01:46:24 pm »

I wonder why they poll states like California. TRUMP has no chance here.

Not according to TRUMP. Tongue
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dspNY
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« Reply #31 on: June 14, 2016, 08:16:39 pm »

This is more about the race going back to Clinton +9ish nationally than it is about California itself or the electoral college.

A uniform swing with CA at Dem +30 would move any state the GOP won by 7 or less in 2012 into the Dem column, which means NC goes Dem and GA, AZ, MO and IN are close
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BetoBro
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« Reply #32 on: June 14, 2016, 11:06:26 pm »

In before jfern asking why they didn't poll Sanders/claim that Sanders would be beating Trump by 50 points in California. Junk poll!
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