Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 23, 2019, 04:42:47 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 Print
Author Topic: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play  (Read 3659 times)
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,425
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: June 12, 2016, 07:22:43 am »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?
Logged
JRP1994
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,627


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2016, 07:23:47 am »

> In before IceSpear proclaims it a junk poll because neither candidate is at or above 45%.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,921
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2016, 08:36:39 am »

I think Romney should attack Trump one more time.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,162
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2016, 09:03:25 am »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

Because it became clear pretty quickly that this state wasn't gonna be Trump country. I think if Johnson can siphon off Trump votes, Hillary's got a chance.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,394
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 12, 2016, 10:42:01 am »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.
Logged
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,323
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 12, 2016, 11:01:27 am »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,394
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 12, 2016, 11:14:57 am »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,787
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 12, 2016, 11:32:55 am »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

For Zogby polls, you would probably get more accurate polls if you flipped the leading margin to the other candidate, and then double it.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,879
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 12, 2016, 11:51:00 am »

New Poll: Utah President by Survey USA on 2016-06-08

Summary: D: 35%, R: 35%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Helsinkian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,250
Finland
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 12, 2016, 01:17:48 pm »

I could see Johnson getting up to 10 percent in Utah even if he only gets 2 or 3 percent nationwide.
Logged
dax00
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,396


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: June 12, 2016, 01:27:16 pm »

I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,816
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: June 12, 2016, 01:46:10 pm »

I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.

I don't think that would help. I think most Utahns are Mormons/Romney lovers first and Republicans second. If anything it could drive a wedge between the GOP and the Mormons that lasts beyond a single election cycle.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,816
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: June 12, 2016, 01:47:07 pm »

> In before IceSpear proclaims it a junk poll because neither candidate is at or above 45%.

It at least makes sense in Utah, due to the unique dynamics in the state.
Logged
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,323
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: June 12, 2016, 02:23:41 pm »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

I'd like to remind you of Kansas polls in 2014. The average of polls was off by 12 points or so.

I would not trust any Kansas poll which is not in line with the state fundamentals.
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,713
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: June 12, 2016, 02:31:21 pm »

Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,587
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: June 12, 2016, 02:55:49 pm »

Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.

Romney would actually win Utah in that scenario
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,816
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: June 12, 2016, 02:56:49 pm »

Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.

Romney would actually win Utah in that scenario

And probably comfortably, with Trump getting a distant 3rd. I could see something like:

Romney 50
Clinton 30
Trump 20
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,879
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 12, 2016, 03:00:01 pm »

Romney should just run on the ballot in Utah. If the election is super close, Utah's 6 EVs could potentially keep Trump and Clinton from reaching 270 and send this to the House.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,394
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: June 12, 2016, 11:29:47 pm »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

I'd like to remind you of Kansas polls in 2014. The average of polls was off by 12 points or so.

I would not trust any Kansas poll which is not in line with the state fundamentals.

State fundamentals can change. West Virginia went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988, It was hard for many of us to believe that the state would go for Dubya in 2000... but has become one of the most reliably R states in the US.  Now let me tell you how reliably Republican Vermont used to be.

On the other side, I was astonished to see Virginia give small lead after small lead to Barack Obama in 2008. No, the only former Confederate state to vote against Carter in 1976, a state that voted twice against Bill Clinton, and a state that had gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since 1948 (the Goldwater fiasco)... no... Virginia was not going Democratic in 2008. The fundamentals just weren't right.

Just wait for another poll of Kansas if you dislike the Zogby poll. "43" is the typical ceiling for a Democratic nominee in a Presidential election.   
Logged
Zioneer
PioneerProgress
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,495
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: June 12, 2016, 11:56:38 pm »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

Mainly because the results are wildly out of the ordinary for Utah, and they want to confirm or deny this surprising result. When Utah of all places polls like a swing state, you want to make sure the results are legitimate.
Logged
RJEvans
MasterRegal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 496
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: June 13, 2016, 09:08:58 am »

I do find it odd that she is polling 10 points better than Obama with a 20% approval rating.
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,011
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: June 13, 2016, 11:51:55 am »

This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

When one of the deepest "red" states all the sudden looks competitive it should warrant a good number of polls from other sources to confirm it. And if it is indeed a battleground state this year then it would make sense to track it at least as much as the other fools gold states like PA and AZ.
Logged
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,931


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: June 13, 2016, 08:11:52 pm »

Romney should just run on the ballot in Utah. If the election is super close, Utah's 6 EVs could potentially keep Trump and Clinton from reaching 270 and send this to the House.

That's been a pet idea of mine for a while
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,106
Ukraine


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: June 13, 2016, 08:14:32 pm »
« Edited: June 13, 2016, 08:18:29 pm by Virginia »

State fundamentals can change. West Virginia went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988, It was hard for many of us to believe that the state would go for Dubya in 2000... but has become one of the most reliably R states in the US.  Now let me tell you how reliably Republican Vermont used to be.

On the other side, I was astonished to see Virginia give small lead after small lead to Barack Obama in 2008. No, the only former Confederate state to vote against Carter in 1976, a state that voted twice against Bill Clinton, and a state that had gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since 1948 (the Goldwater fiasco)... no... Virginia was not going Democratic in 2008. The fundamentals just weren't right.

Just wait for another poll of Kansas if you dislike the Zogby poll. "43" is the typical ceiling for a Democratic nominee in a Presidential election.    

Honestly, the signs for Virginia were there years beforehand. Neither age group in Virginia voted as heavily Republican as other southern states - Mostly 40% - 47%, with an average of maybe 44% or so. In 2000, Bush won 18-29yr olds comfortably. In 2004, Bush then lost 18-29yr olds by 10 points. That was a dramatic flip, and Obama's campaign clearly saw what was going on. Young voters are mostly the reason Obama won Virginia and they are the ones continuing to make Virginia Democratic as they age. Obama won 18-29yr olds by 60% and 61% in 2008, 2012, respectively. It's safe to say that the emerging voter base in VA has significantly different political choices than their parents. Combined with favorable population movement, it's a disaster for the state GOP.

Contrast to West Virginia, where Gore got blown out in 2000 among 18-29yr olds - 57 - 37 Bush, and in 2004, it was closer but almost all other age groups went hard against Democrats.

I don't think Utah has any of these characteristics - A Clinton win here, or a bare Trump win would be something of a fluke - A victim of circumstances. Not to say it couldn't set the state on a new course down the line, though. Impossible to say right now. I just wanted to add that these trends are very rarely spontaneous.
Logged
BetoBro
semocrat08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,388
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: June 14, 2016, 01:32:01 am »

I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.

Lmao and you think that'll increase his numbers in Utah of all places?! By all means, please encourage him to do so. Maybe Gary Johnson will finish second in Utah if Trumpet continues to bash and ridicule their favorite son Willard. 
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC