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Author Topic: CA-USC/LA Times: Clinton +30  (Read 1823 times)
Ebsy
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« on: June 13, 2016, 11:29:39 am »

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-california-exit-poll-20160613-snap-story.html

Clinton: 61
Trump: 31
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2016, 11:32:08 am »


This looks more realistic and more in line with national polls.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2016, 11:33:28 am »

That's it? Tongue
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2016, 11:33:57 am »

No way Trump wins the popular vote.
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2016, 11:35:18 am »

No way Trump wins the popular vote.

Of course. I predicted it already. But he will win the Electoral College. Smiley
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2016, 11:52:12 am »

No way Trump wins the popular vote.

Of course. I predicted it already. But he will win the Electoral College. Smiley

That's adorable.
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RR1997
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2016, 12:11:28 pm »

Trump will easily win this state because Reagan Democrats.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2016, 12:12:08 pm »

If Trump is seriously losing California by 30, he's not winning the election. There's no way his support can be so selective that he does this badly in the dark blue states, and yet somehow win light blue states like Pennsylvania.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2016, 12:24:45 pm »

For reference, Obama got 60, Romney got 37. Obama got 61, McCain got 37. If this holds, Clinton can conceivably get 65 and add 1 million+ to her popular vote just from CA.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2016, 01:35:22 pm »

Good news, considering they were by far the most accurate in the primary.
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Ljube
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2016, 02:28:00 pm »

If Trump is seriously losing California by 30, he's not winning the election. There's no way his support can be so selective that he does this badly in the dark blue states, and yet somehow win light blue states like Pennsylvania.

He is completely different from any past Republican candidate in the past 40 years or more.

We should expect his support to be more selective.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2016, 02:29:20 pm »

Their pre-primary poll had Clinton at +21, so it seems that Sanders supporters had no problem consolidating.

He is completely different from any past Republican candidate in the past 40 years or more.


You betcha!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2016, 03:10:02 pm »

Good, good. Looks like the Sanders supporters have heeled.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2016, 03:48:42 pm »

If Trump is seriously losing California by 30, he's not winning the election. There's no way his support can be so selective that he does this badly in the dark blue states, and yet somehow win light blue states like Pennsylvania.

He is completely different from any past Republican candidate in the past 40 years or more.

We should expect his support to be more selective.


Not so selective that he'd lose a state like California, where many demographic groups are well represented, by thirty points (seven points worse than Romney) and yet do significantly better than Romney in all of the right places. The fact that he's "different" doesn't mean that the results will be that convenient for him.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2016, 04:00:29 pm »

Not so selective that he'd lose a state like California, where many demographic groups are well represented, by thirty points (seven points worse than Romney) and yet do significantly better than Romney in all of the right places. The fact that he's "different" doesn't mean that the results will be that convenient for him.

The "he's different" line is a Trump supporter favorite. It gives them an excuse to ignore the fact that the vast majority of polls show him losing, sometimes by large margins.

Of course, when the polls begin to look favorable for Trump, they will become valid again Tongue
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2016, 05:58:34 pm »

They were the most accurate in the primary.

RCP has California as "likely D." ayy lmao
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2016, 06:00:20 pm »

Good, good. Looks like the Sanders supporters have heeled.

No way. jfern told me all his friends on Facebook were voting for Stein.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2016, 06:04:42 pm »

New Poll: California President by LA Times on 2016-06-10

Summary: D: 61%, R: 31%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: June 13, 2016, 06:39:17 pm »

I could easily see Trump losing Cali 65-35, and possibly even worse.

This guy is just about the worst fit I could imagine for a Republican GE candidate in the state. Sure he might gain a few extra points in some small rural counties in the northern part of the state, and maybe even grab one or two Sanders voters here or there, but he's not going to do well with Fiorina and Whitman Republicans in most parts of the state, combined with what looks well like will be huge Latino voter turnout numbers in November, including a ton of first-time voters that registered to vote since January, heavily motivated by the disturbing and racially charged comments against Latino Americans.

Key question will many of these new voters go down-ballot and put CDs in places like the (3) CDs in Central Valley and several others in North Coast San Diego/SoCal into play and pad the already overwhelmingly Dem congressional delegation margins.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: June 13, 2016, 06:42:40 pm »

I could easily see Trump losing Cali 65-35, and possibly even worse.

This guy is just about the worst fit I could imagine for a Republican GE candidate in the state. Sure he might gain a few extra points in some small rural counties in the northern part of the state, and maybe even grab one or two Sanders voters here or there, but he's not going to do well with Fiorina and Whitman Republicans in most parts of the state, combined with what looks well like will be huge Latino voter turnout numbers in November, including a ton of first-time voters that registered to vote since January, heavily motivated by the disturbing and racially charged comments against Latino Americans.

Key question will many of these new voters go down-ballot and put CDs in places like the (3) CDs in Central Valley and several others in North Coast San Diego/SoCal into play and pad the already overwhelmingly Dem congressional delegation margins.

It'll be very interesting to see if he puts his money where his mouth is and contests the state. A man can dream...
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2016, 06:58:55 pm »

I could easily see Trump losing Cali 65-35, and possibly even worse.

This guy is just about the worst fit I could imagine for a Republican GE candidate in the state. Sure he might gain a few extra points in some small rural counties in the northern part of the state, and maybe even grab one or two Sanders voters here or there, but he's not going to do well with Fiorina and Whitman Republicans in most parts of the state, combined with what looks well like will be huge Latino voter turnout numbers in November, including a ton of first-time voters that registered to vote since January, heavily motivated by the disturbing and racially charged comments against Latino Americans.

Key question will many of these new voters go down-ballot and put CDs in places like the (3) CDs in Central Valley and several others in North Coast San Diego/SoCal into play and pad the already overwhelmingly Dem congressional delegation margins.

It'll be very interesting to see if he puts his money where his mouth is and contests the state. A man can dream...

Hopefully out of his own pocket, and not some fixed-income senior citizen living on Social Security barely able to pay his own rent...

But seriously, even many OC Republicans are having a hard time considering voting for him, let alone what passes for Republican leaning swing-voters in the Bay Area in places like Santa Clara County and Walnut Creek/Concord.

What is remaining of the Republican Party in Cali that can take statewide elections to ~10 point margins is generally socially-liberal, economically moderate, and doesn't do the old dog-whistles a la Pete Wilson, who did more to destroy the Republican Party in California than any other political figures.

The message of exclusivity and nativism is inherently in fundamental contradiction to how the vast majority of citizens perceive themselves as part of the California of the 21st Century in the post Pete Wilson era, among Democrats, True Independents", and many Republicans as well.

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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2016, 09:38:19 pm »

Man, I can't even imagine what a Republican from Walnut Creek or Concord really looks like. Probably easy to pick out of a crowd.... or not because there's so few of them.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2016, 09:56:12 pm »

Man, I can't even imagine what a Republican from Walnut Creek or Concord really looks like. Probably easy to pick out of a crowd.... or not because there's so few of them.

Definitely a dying breed and general live out in wealthy mansions in the hills or a handful of senior citizen center, or are in deep undercover mode at their neighborhood BBQs in the middle class suburbs. Wink

What some on this forum used to refer to as "Reagan Democrats" and key to the Bush Senior win in'88 and core to Pete Wilson scene.

Not sure if you ever spent time down in Cupertino, where I lived for awhile, but I think there might be a few more Republicans in Concord and Walnut creek than much of South Bay, although it's difficult to poll with such a small subsample. Bet on for November when precincts report? Smiley

Either way a landslide in the Bay Area Region (BAR), and OC and SD counties aren't going to be much help propping up the margins this time around, when there is huge turnout in LA and Inland Empire combined with Central Valley and Sac.

I think 65-35 is a pretty realistic number... maybe even worse depending upon how the Trump trainwreck continues to roll.

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Seriously?
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« Reply #23 on: June 13, 2016, 10:08:26 pm »

RV poll as opposed to LV.

With that said, Trump should lose CA by 20-25. The state is hopeless.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2016, 12:37:07 am »

RV poll as opposed to LV.


You know that the election is still 5 months away, right?
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