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July 19, 2019, 09:57:40 am
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  WI-PPP: Feingold +10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI-PPP: Feingold +10  (Read 2002 times)
Nyvin
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« on: June 14, 2016, 07:29:58 am »

Seems about right. Johnson is pretty much doomed unless Trump wins nationally by like 10.

At this point, Democrats are basically guaranteed to win FL, WI, IL and NH. Looks like the GOP will have to win every other competitive race (definitely possible) and win NV (possible, but difficult) if they don't want to lose the Senate. But right now, Democrats are favored to retake the Senate.
I don't think if you agree with me or not on what I will say but I now believe it is definitely possible the dems retake the senate and that trump could pull a narrow win: unlikely but it was unbelievable before.

My prediction, the democrats pick up 7 seats, I believe they are clearly favored to win the 6 seats more favourable to them, for the 7th seat (AZ, MO, IA, NC,...), I believe individually each gop candidate is favored to be reelected (that can change) but that the probably is higher than at least 1 of them is defeated than all of them reelected.

Except the Democrats aren't clearly favored to pick up 6 seats, they're clearly favored to pick up 2: WI and IL. The rest are at least somewhat ambiguous (FL, NH) or the Republican is more likely to win (OH, PA).
Portman and Toomey arent going to survive if Clinton carries their state which is likely.

Every poll out there shows  Toomey running ahead of Trump, and McGinty is a terrible candidate. PA is likely R.

There isn't anything special about Toomey at all..he's just a generic Republican.

If Clinton is winning nationally pretty much all the competitive races will go to the Democrats, and this seat is no different.

McGinty isn't terrible either....she's just another Generic Democrat (who happens to be a woman I guess).    The candidates aren't a major part of this race.
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