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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IA-PPP: Clinton 44 Trump 41
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Author Topic: IA-PPP: Clinton 44 Trump 41  (Read 2153 times)
Green Line
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« Reply #25 on: June 16, 2016, 04:42:05 pm »

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Not at all.  They're a partisan polling outfit, so naturally they're doing whatever they can to help Trump win the nomination.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #26 on: June 16, 2016, 04:55:35 pm »

At least Iowa is now fixed on the Atlas map. Now we just need real polls in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Minnesota.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #27 on: June 16, 2016, 04:59:55 pm »

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Not at all.  They're a partisan polling outfit, so naturally they're doing whatever they can to help Trump win the nomination.
No. They really are not. PPP strives for accuracy. It's not like these numbers are not much off of the 2012 final numbers within the MOE. If the race is about C+3-5% at this point, that's about where they should be stateside. Especially since most state polling is LV, but national polling is RV.
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Green Line
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« Reply #28 on: June 16, 2016, 05:01:09 pm »

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Not at all.  They're a partisan polling outfit, so naturally they're doing whatever they can to help Trump win the nomination.
No. They really are not. PPP strives for accuracy. It's not like these numbers are not much off of the 2012 final numbers within the MOE. If the race is about C+3-5% at this point, that's about where they should be stateside. Especially since most state polling is LV, but national polling is RV.

That's precisely why these numbers are ridiculous.  This is not a 2012 election, it's 1932.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #29 on: June 16, 2016, 05:05:57 pm »

Very good for Hillary.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #30 on: June 16, 2016, 05:07:41 pm »

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Not at all.  They're a partisan polling outfit, so naturally they're doing whatever they can to help Trump win the nomination.
No. They really are not. PPP strives for accuracy. It's not like these numbers are not much off of the 2012 final numbers within the MOE. If the race is about C+3-5% at this point, that's about where they should be stateside. Especially since most state polling is LV, but national polling is RV.

That's precisely why these numbers are ridiculous.  This is not a 2012 election, it's 1932.
Except outside of the Reuters and Bloomberg polls, both of which have their own set of flaws, there's nothing at this point backing up your 1932 assessment. Most of the polling right now is in the 3-6 point range nationally, not much different than 2012 outcome.

Personalities aside, to me this is your typical open seat election, which will end up in the same R+1 to D+7 range in voter turnout. With how polarized this country is, it's just a matter of who turns out more people.

If it ends up D+7, Hillary wins. If the electorate tilts to around D+3 it starts favoring Trump.

For every Democrat that hates Trump, there's a Republican that despises Hillary!
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« Reply #31 on: June 16, 2016, 05:20:57 pm »

Except outside of the Reuters and Bloomberg polls, both of which have their own set of flaws, there's nothing at this point backing up your 1932 assessment. Most of the polling right now is in the 3-6 point range nationally, not much different than 2012 outcome.

Personalities aside, to me this is your typical open seat election, which will end up in the same R+1 to D+7 range in voter turnout. With how polarized this country is, it's just a matter of who turns out more people.

If it ends up D+7, Hillary wins. If the electorate tilts to around D+3 it starts favoring Trump.

For every Democrat that hates Trump, there's a Republican that despises Hillary!

Up to this point, Romney did better than Trump in the polls, though. I mean Hillary even opened up a 10+ point RCP average for almost a month and a half not that long ago.

These races are not really the same. In the polls, Hillary is doing notably better than Obama was in 2012 (so far)


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
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Seriously?
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« Reply #32 on: June 16, 2016, 05:36:47 pm »

Except outside of the Reuters and Bloomberg polls, both of which have their own set of flaws, there's nothing at this point backing up your 1932 assessment. Most of the polling right now is in the 3-6 point range nationally, not much different than 2012 outcome.

Personalities aside, to me this is your typical open seat election, which will end up in the same R+1 to D+7 range in voter turnout. With how polarized this country is, it's just a matter of who turns out more people.

If it ends up D+7, Hillary wins. If the electorate tilts to around D+3 it starts favoring Trump.

For every Democrat that hates Trump, there's a Republican that despises Hillary!

Up to this point, Romney did better than Trump in the polls, though. I mean Hillary even opened up a 10+ point RCP average for almost a month and a half not that long ago.

These races are not really the same. In the polls, Hillary is doing notably better than Obama was in 2012 (so far)


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
That may be true, but just because Trump is underperforming Romney doesn't mean that it is going to remain that way. There still is a long way to go in this cycle.

Note that I am NOT saying that it will either be a landslide or a close race on either side. Simply, the numbers are what the numbers are at this point. I'd expect about this result in IA, etc.

My confirmation of that is where Hillary! is spending her money.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #33 on: June 16, 2016, 05:52:00 pm »

Obama approval is soaring. Your points are invalid.

Bill Clinton was pushing 60% approval rating when Al Gore struggled to get a tie with George W. Bush in 2000.

Al Gore distanced himself from Clinton. Do you really think Hillary will do the same to Obama?

No sex scandal.
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« Reply #34 on: June 16, 2016, 06:41:23 pm »

I want to see more polls, but this seems about right. I think people are over estimating Iowa swinging republican--not to say it's not happening, I just think 2014 was more of an exception rather than the norm. I predict the race remaining close since neither candidate is well liked here. If this had been Clinton vs. any other republican I could easily see the state flipping. I think she'll pull it off here, but perhaps just barely.

The county map will be the typical east/west divide, maybe even more pronounced this year. If only IA-4 could become part of Nebraska...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: June 16, 2016, 07:15:09 pm »

Iowa is about D+1. Gore barely won the state in 2000; Kerry barely lost it in 2004.  It was the tipping-point state in 2008.

Either Iowa or Virginia by 3 for her suggests that Hillary Clinton has somewhere between 275 (IA) and 300 (VA) electoral votes. 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #36 on: June 16, 2016, 07:22:38 pm »

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Weren't you part of the bull****, "PPP is in the tank for $hillary" crowd, or was this an early persona?
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #37 on: June 16, 2016, 10:12:46 pm »

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Weren't you part of the bull****, "PPP is in the tank for $hillary" crowd, or was this an early persona?

I still believe they were adjusting their primary polls in her favor before Iowa, but after that they stopped for some reason.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #38 on: June 16, 2016, 10:16:42 pm »

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Weren't you part of the bull****, "PPP is in the tank for $hillary" crowd, or was this an early persona?

I still believe they were adjusting their primary polls in her favor before Iowa, but after that they stopped for some reason.

Yeah, so you can't complain about poll manipulation claims. I think PPP's problem was their reliance on landlines and didn't model accordingly.
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #39 on: June 16, 2016, 10:55:26 pm »

As I said above, Iowa is a state where it's virtually impossible for either party to get under 40% in a presidential election. Trump's numbers don't look inflated at all.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #40 on: June 17, 2016, 06:02:50 am »

As I said above, Iowa is a state where it's virtually impossible for either party to get under 40% in a presidential election. Trump's numbers don't look inflated at all.
Yeah, and that is understating it. Iowa was always going to be close.
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