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  Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +12
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Author Topic: Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +12  (Read 1818 times)
JRP1994
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« on: June 14, 2016, 04:10:03 pm »

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016

Clinton: 49%
Trump: 37%
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2016, 04:11:40 pm »

Clinton 49
Trump 37
Johnson 9

Would never support-
Trump 55
Johnson 44
Clinton 43

http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rc0NltTBR0ug/v0


SELZER & COMPANY Study #2140
1,000 U.S. adults ages 18 and over June 10-13, 2016
Margin of error for full sample: 3.1 percentage points Weighted by age and race
Includes 750 likely voters in the November general election
Margin of error for likely voter subsample: 3.6 percentage points
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2016, 04:14:04 pm »

Lest the 1964 redux predictions be revived, let's all remember this is a bounce, just like how Trump got a bounce after he clinched the nomination.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2016, 04:17:23 pm »

DAMN
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marty
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2016, 04:18:39 pm »

Clinton led by 18 in the last version of this poll. It seems to have some sort of clinton bias caked into it.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2016, 04:21:16 pm »
« Edited: June 14, 2016, 04:22:48 pm by HillOfANight »

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016
http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rc0NltTBR0ug/v0

Horse race didn't change Clinton vs Trump post Orlando but did lower Obama's approval.

55% bothered over Trump's attack on judge Curiel's heritage.

White men are among Trump's strongest demographics. But even there he's not showing as much strength as the party's last nominee, Mitt Romney, who beat Obama in 2012 by 62 percent to 35 percent among white men, according to exit polls.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2016, 04:21:48 pm »
« Edited: June 14, 2016, 04:24:01 pm by Fusionmunster »

Clinton led by 18 in the last version of this poll. It seems to have some sort of clinton bias caked into it.

Back in March.

Edit: And its still +18 if Johnson isnt included.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2016, 04:22:17 pm »

LOL at the Donald
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Iosif
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2016, 04:22:48 pm »

Obama's approval-disapproval is 53-42.
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marty
boshembechle
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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2016, 04:23:12 pm »

Clinton led by 18 in the last version of this poll. It seems to have some sort of clinton bias caked into it.

Back in March.

Which was an outlier.

Clinton is up 4-6 right now.
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marty
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« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2016, 04:25:31 pm »

Nate Cohn and Harry Enten are sort of not taking this poll seriously
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Dumbo
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« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2016, 04:26:10 pm »
« Edited: June 14, 2016, 04:27:58 pm by Dumbo »

Interviews were conducted June 10 - 13, so I think this
poll is out of date.

In the "battling terrorism" poll (interviews conducted June 13)
Trump leads by 4.

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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2016, 04:26:37 pm »

We're a Suffolk and a CNN poll away from the RCP average getting out of hand.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2016, 04:27:10 pm »

Nate Cohn and Harry Enten are sort of not taking this poll seriously

Neither are we, but we also got a +7 Clinton poll today. Hillarys getting a bump.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2016, 04:28:36 pm »

Nate Cohn and Harry Enten are sort of not taking this poll seriously

Selzer method polling in Iowa (all adults) kind of out of whack with pollsters that only look at registered voters, but still good to know the national sentiment.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2016, 04:29:54 pm »

Interviews were conducted June 10 - 13, so I think this
poll is out of date.

In the "battling terrorism" poll (interviews conducted June 13)
Trump leads by 4.


A poll conducted in the past 4 days is now out of date?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2016, 04:31:14 pm »
« Edited: June 14, 2016, 04:36:01 pm by Maxwell »

wow. Terrific!

For the record, I do think this is probably an outlier.
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fldemfunds
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« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2016, 04:33:10 pm »

Interviews were conducted June 10 - 13, so I think this
poll is out of date.

In the "battling terrorism" poll (interviews conducted June 13)
Trump leads by 4.



The MOE on that one day of interviews is going to be larger than the margin. You're cherry-picking data. Don't be Karl Rove. Nobody should be Karl Rove.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2016, 04:38:32 pm »

Interviews were conducted June 10 - 13, so I think this
poll is out of date.

In the "battling terrorism" poll (interviews conducted June 13)
Trump leads by 4.


A poll conducted in the past 4 days is now out of date?

It's a fast world. Anything published before 5 minutes ago is obsolete.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2016, 04:39:25 pm »

June 20, 2012 Selzer had it Obama 53-40

The "flawed" challenger languished at 39-48 favorables lol
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2016, 04:39:32 pm »

She still has room to grow - getting only 55% of Sanders supporters. Also two thirds of women stating they could never see themselves backing Trump - that's just an astronomically high number to overcome if close to reality.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2016, 04:42:24 pm »

June 20, 2012 Selzer had it Obama 53-40

The "flawed" challenger languished at 39-48 favorables lol
And Romney still lost so.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2016, 04:49:46 pm »

Trump seems to be consistently under 40% as of late.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2016, 04:51:49 pm »

Trump seems to be consistently under 40% as of late.

Yeah, his RCP average seems to be cratering right now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2016, 04:53:02 pm »

What a nice poll!
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