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Author Topic: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9  (Read 3022 times)
Fargobison
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« on: June 15, 2016, 12:30:53 pm »

Clinton 46
Trump 37

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/743131478964502528
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2016, 12:32:55 pm »

So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2016, 12:35:07 pm »

This actually is better than I thought for Trump tbh
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2016, 12:35:36 pm »

Also worth noting. Clinton does BETTER with LVs than RVs (usually GOP does better). Also, fully 1/4 of Sanders supporters still not behind Clinton. If she leads by 9 given that... wow.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2016, 12:37:53 pm »

HRC still struggling with some of the Sander's supporters

Quote
MULawPoll
‏@MULawPoll
Many supporters of Sanders remain reluctant to vote for Clinton, Franklin says. #mulawpoll

GOP enthusiasm is way down...

Quote
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll  7m7 minutes ago
In this poll, 78% of Republicans say they are certain to vote in Nov., down 9 percentage points from March. #mulawpoll

Quote
MULawPoll
‏@MULawPoll
Poll director Franklin says drop in Republican voter enthusiasm is "substantial." #mulawpoll
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2016, 12:40:32 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.
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I think Saccone has this. Remaining precincts in Allegheny are only slightly pro-Lamb.
Angrie
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2016, 12:40:46 pm »

So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.

There is a difference between the potentially competitive areas of the upper midwest (WI/MN/IA) and of the rust belt (PA/OH/MI). They are not the same region. They have different history and different politics, and a candidate can do well in the first group and poorly in the latter, or vice versa.
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Reginald
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2016, 12:48:35 pm »

Also worth noting. Clinton does BETTER with LVs than RVs (usually GOP does better).

Just for the sake of completeness:

LV
Clinton 46 / Trump 37

RV
Clinton 42 / Trump 35
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Holmes
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2016, 12:48:50 pm »

If we can get the Sanders supporters to unite, it could be a 2008-level margin here.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2016, 01:07:40 pm »

This poll really makes me want to see an Iowa poll.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2016, 01:12:05 pm »

Lol on Walker approval:

39% Approve
57% Disapprove
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Fargobison
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2016, 01:28:29 pm »

Basically the only bright spot in this poll for Republicans in WI....

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Views on Speaker Paul Ryan: Favorable, 49%; unfavorable, 32%; 18% no opinion. In March, it was 48%/ 31%/ 21%. #mulawpoll
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Ljube
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2016, 01:38:48 pm »

Expected.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2016, 01:39:04 pm »

Quote
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  5m5 minutes ago
There has not been a single poll in Wisconsin that Clinton up by anything less than 9 points.
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2016, 01:45:00 pm »

Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2016, 01:59:42 pm »

Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.

Probably they won't since Milwaukee talk radio continues to be a bastion of #NeverTrump and Walker himself has refused to endorse TRUMP.
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« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2016, 02:02:00 pm »

Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.

Hillary got crushed as well though.

Are there more #NeverTrump or #BernieorBust people in this poll?
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« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2016, 02:09:18 pm »

13% of the respondents said that they were going to neither vote for Clinton nor Trump.

37 for Trump, 46% for Clinton, and 13% for Johnson or Stein means that Trump's ceiling is 41%, which Hillary Clinton beats easily.

Lowest R percentages since 1920 in Wisconsin:

2008 McCain 42%
1996 Dole 37% (three way race)
1992 Bush 37% (three way race)
1964 Goldwater 38%
1936 Landon 38%
1932 Hoover 31%
1924 Coolidge 37% (Third-Party favorite son won Wisconsin that year)
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« Reply #18 on: June 15, 2016, 02:16:40 pm »

So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.

There is a difference between the potentially competitive areas of the upper midwest (WI/MN/IA) and of the rust belt (PA/OH/MI). They are not the same region. They have different history and different politics, and a candidate can do well in the first group and poorly in the latter, or vice versa.

This. I've been to both, and worked politics (in a limited way) in both. VERY different.

(The cheese curds are much better in the upper midwest than the rust belt, for example)
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« Reply #19 on: June 15, 2016, 04:19:52 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #20 on: June 15, 2016, 04:29:30 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.
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I think Saccone has this. Remaining precincts in Allegheny are only slightly pro-Lamb.
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« Reply #21 on: June 15, 2016, 04:38:18 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2016, 04:46:25 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.

I certainly wouldn't rule out Virginia before Wisconsin. You could argue that the state's trending Democratic, but it's probably a bit soon to say that it's gone for Republicans. And I'd definitely give Pennsylvania to Trump before Wisconsin. Wisconsin simply isn't a good state for Trump, since the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and quite progressive, and Republicans would prefer a candidate like Cruz. It's not impossible that Trump could win Wisconsin, but I don't see it happening unless he's already won OH, PA, FL, VA, IA, and probably a few other states (i.e. already won the election.)
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I think Saccone has this. Remaining precincts in Allegheny are only slightly pro-Lamb.
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« Reply #23 on: June 15, 2016, 04:49:58 pm »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-06-12

Summary: D: 46%, R: 37%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #24 on: June 15, 2016, 07:13:15 pm »

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.
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