Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 19, 2018, 03:45:17 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9  (Read 2746 times)
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,479


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: June 15, 2016, 07:24:29 pm »

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

Rubio would be I think as well, seems like he would be a perfect fit for the WOW counties.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,290
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.87, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 15, 2016, 07:31:17 pm »

A lot of apathy/anger with the candidates in Wisconsin, as it was a Sanders/Cruz state. Its almost unprecedented for both parties to have more than a quarter dissaproval of your own nominee in a state. The Milwaukee area Republicans still hate Trump, I bet a lot of that 'won't vote/other' is coming from there for Republicans. I'm guessing Waukesha County turns out something like this...

Trump: 58%
Clinton: 37%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Madison (Dane) something like this:

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 27%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

Rubio would be I think as well, seems like he would be a perfect fit for the WOW counties.

Yeah, I would speculate that if Wisconsin was held on March 1st I think Rubio would've won the primary.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,596
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 15, 2016, 08:39:13 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

If Gary Johnson is getting 10% of the vote in any state,then whoever gets over 45% wins the state. Johnson seems to be picking up fewer votes from usual Democratic voters than from usual Republican voters.
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,954
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 15, 2016, 08:53:49 pm »

I wonder if Eraserhead will ever tire of concern trolling.
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,988
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 15, 2016, 09:46:52 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.
If Wisconsin is ever the tipping point state for the GOP, they are in huge trouble. It's a tier 2 state, at best. I'd probably rank it as the Midwest Twin states of tease along with MN and their cousins NJ and OR in the East and West.

WI is usually fools gold for the GOP, much like GA in the South for the Dems.

MI and PA are likely to be competitive on the GOP side before WI.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 09:49:08 pm by Seriously? »Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,249
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 15, 2016, 09:53:12 pm »

I wonder if Eraserhead will ever tire of concern trolling.

Maybe around the same time that you tire of trolling Sanders supporters. Tongue
Logged

Update lives again on Atlas After Dark. PM me for info.
Desroko
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 351
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 15, 2016, 10:21:32 pm »

Quote
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  5m5 minutes ago
There has not been a single poll in Wisconsin that Clinton up by anything less than 9 points.

You should probably remove the ((( ))) from Enten's name before re-posting. And question the sort of other websites you're reading.

Edit: Because I don't tweet I didn't know that Enten puts it in front of his own name. False alarm.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 10:27:09 pm by Desroko »Logged
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,730
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 15, 2016, 10:27:16 pm »

Quote
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  5m5 minutes ago
There has not been a single poll in Wisconsin that Clinton up by anything less than 9 points.

You should probably remove the ((( ))) from Enten's name before re-posting. And question the sort of other websites you're reading.

Enten is a writer for 538. He and many others are doing it as sign of solidarity with those who are being attacked by anti-semites.
Logged

Endorsements
Maryland Governor: Ben Jealous
Illinois-Governor: Not Rauner
Ohio-Governor: Richard Cordray
Desroko
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 351
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 15, 2016, 10:32:56 pm »

Quote
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  5m5 minutes ago
There has not been a single poll in Wisconsin that Clinton up by anything less than 9 points.

You should probably remove the ((( ))) from Enten's name before re-posting. And question the sort of other websites you're reading.

Enten is a writer for 538. He and many others are doing it as sign of solidarity with those who are being attacked by anti-semites.

Yep, didn't know that. Apologies.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,381


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 16, 2016, 10:01:49 am »

A lot of apathy/anger with the candidates in Wisconsin, as it was a Sanders/Cruz state. Its almost unprecedented for both parties to have more than a quarter dissaproval of your own nominee in a state. The Milwaukee area Republicans still hate Trump, I bet a lot of that 'won't vote/other' is coming from there for Republicans. I'm guessing Waukesha County turns out something like this...

Trump: 58%
Clinton: 37%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Madison (Dane) something like this:

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 27%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

Rubio would be I think as well, seems like he would be a perfect fit for the WOW counties.

Yeah, I would speculate that if Wisconsin was held on March 1st I think Rubio would've won the primary.

I think you're underestimating Clinton a bit in Dane County. No way Trump does as well as Romney. He'll have a hard time breaking 25%. Clinton will get 70, min. Waukesha looks right. I would imagine that Trump will win, but not by the margins he needs, the WOW region. I think he loses the Fox valley by 10.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 43,145


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: January 11, 2017, 01:31:57 am »

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

When a poll is 8 points off, much better to be up 25 points rather than 7 points.
Logged

Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,853
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: August 18, 2017, 04:03:06 pm »

So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.
junk poll
Logged

A link to my timeline
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=280698.0


Dino Rossi for Congress!

Two generations of beautiful Jewish princesses!
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines