Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 15, 2019, 02:03:10 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderator: AndrewTX)
  WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9  (Read 4508 times)
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,490



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 15, 2016, 12:30:53 pm »

Clinton 46
Trump 37

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/743131478964502528
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,815
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2016, 12:32:55 pm »

So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.
Logged
Classic Conservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,642
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2016, 12:35:07 pm »

This actually is better than I thought for Trump tbh
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,521


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2016, 12:35:36 pm »

Also worth noting. Clinton does BETTER with LVs than RVs (usually GOP does better). Also, fully 1/4 of Sanders supporters still not behind Clinton. If she leads by 9 given that... wow.
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,490



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2016, 12:37:53 pm »

HRC still struggling with some of the Sander's supporters

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

GOP enthusiasm is way down...

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2016, 12:40:32 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.
Logged
Angrie
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 449


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2016, 12:40:46 pm »

So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.

There is a difference between the potentially competitive areas of the upper midwest (WI/MN/IA) and of the rust belt (PA/OH/MI). They are not the same region. They have different history and different politics, and a candidate can do well in the first group and poorly in the latter, or vice versa.
Logged
Reginald
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 803


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2016, 12:48:35 pm »

Also worth noting. Clinton does BETTER with LVs than RVs (usually GOP does better).

Just for the sake of completeness:

LV
Clinton 46 / Trump 37

RV
Clinton 42 / Trump 35
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,764
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2016, 12:48:50 pm »

If we can get the Sanders supporters to unite, it could be a 2008-level margin here.
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,490



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2016, 01:07:40 pm »

This poll really makes me want to see an Iowa poll.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,276
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2016, 01:12:05 pm »

Lol on Walker approval:

39% Approve
57% Disapprove
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,490



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2016, 01:28:29 pm »

Basically the only bright spot in this poll for Republicans in WI....

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,260
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2016, 01:38:48 pm »

Expected.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,276
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2016, 01:39:04 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 395


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2016, 01:45:00 pm »

Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,339
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2016, 01:59:42 pm »

Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.

Probably they won't since Milwaukee talk radio continues to be a bastion of #NeverTrump and Walker himself has refused to endorse TRUMP.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,731
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2016, 02:02:00 pm »

Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.

Hillary got crushed as well though.

Are there more #NeverTrump or #BernieorBust people in this poll?
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,429
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2016, 02:09:18 pm »

13% of the respondents said that they were going to neither vote for Clinton nor Trump.

37 for Trump, 46% for Clinton, and 13% for Johnson or Stein means that Trump's ceiling is 41%, which Hillary Clinton beats easily.

Lowest R percentages since 1920 in Wisconsin:

2008 McCain 42%
1996 Dole 37% (three way race)
1992 Bush 37% (three way race)
1964 Goldwater 38%
1936 Landon 38%
1932 Hoover 31%
1924 Coolidge 37% (Third-Party favorite son won Wisconsin that year)
Logged
Shameless Bernie Hack
Chickenhawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,162


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 15, 2016, 02:16:40 pm »

So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.

There is a difference between the potentially competitive areas of the upper midwest (WI/MN/IA) and of the rust belt (PA/OH/MI). They are not the same region. They have different history and different politics, and a candidate can do well in the first group and poorly in the latter, or vice versa.

This. I've been to both, and worked politics (in a limited way) in both. VERY different.

(The cheese curds are much better in the upper midwest than the rust belt, for example)
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,160
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 15, 2016, 04:19:52 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 15, 2016, 04:29:30 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,160
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 15, 2016, 04:38:18 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2016, 04:46:25 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.

I certainly wouldn't rule out Virginia before Wisconsin. You could argue that the state's trending Democratic, but it's probably a bit soon to say that it's gone for Republicans. And I'd definitely give Pennsylvania to Trump before Wisconsin. Wisconsin simply isn't a good state for Trump, since the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and quite progressive, and Republicans would prefer a candidate like Cruz. It's not impossible that Trump could win Wisconsin, but I don't see it happening unless he's already won OH, PA, FL, VA, IA, and probably a few other states (i.e. already won the election.)
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,361
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 15, 2016, 04:49:58 pm »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-06-12

Summary: D: 46%, R: 37%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,851
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 15, 2016, 07:13:15 pm »

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC