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Author Topic: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9  (Read 3609 times)
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xingkerui
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« on: June 15, 2016, 12:40:32 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2016, 04:29:30 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2016, 04:46:25 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.

I certainly wouldn't rule out Virginia before Wisconsin. You could argue that the state's trending Democratic, but it's probably a bit soon to say that it's gone for Republicans. And I'd definitely give Pennsylvania to Trump before Wisconsin. Wisconsin simply isn't a good state for Trump, since the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and quite progressive, and Republicans would prefer a candidate like Cruz. It's not impossible that Trump could win Wisconsin, but I don't see it happening unless he's already won OH, PA, FL, VA, IA, and probably a few other states (i.e. already won the election.)
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