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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9  (Read 4492 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: June 15, 2016, 02:09:18 pm »

13% of the respondents said that they were going to neither vote for Clinton nor Trump.

37 for Trump, 46% for Clinton, and 13% for Johnson or Stein means that Trump's ceiling is 41%, which Hillary Clinton beats easily.

Lowest R percentages since 1920 in Wisconsin:

2008 McCain 42%
1996 Dole 37% (three way race)
1992 Bush 37% (three way race)
1964 Goldwater 38%
1936 Landon 38%
1932 Hoover 31%
1924 Coolidge 37% (Third-Party favorite son won Wisconsin that year)
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 21,420
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2016, 08:39:13 pm »

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

If Gary Johnson is getting 10% of the vote in any state,then whoever gets over 45% wins the state. Johnson seems to be picking up fewer votes from usual Democratic voters than from usual Republican voters.
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