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Author Topic: Marquette Law School: Feingold +9 (LV) / +5 (RV)  (Read 683 times)
Gass3268
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« on: June 15, 2016, 01:02:03 pm »

LV:
Feingold 51
Johnson 42

RV:
Feingold 47
Johnson 42

Link to tweet
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2016, 01:05:21 pm »

How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters?  If anything, I would expect the opposite.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2016, 01:09:20 pm »

How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters?  If anything, I would expect the opposite.

Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2016, 01:17:30 pm »

How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters?  If anything, I would expect the opposite.

Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
That seems to be the case here, this time. Feingold supporters probably didn't turn out for him in 2010, but are excited to get him back it seems. Outside groups need to write this race off. This seat (and Illinois and New Hampshire as well) is gone.
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2016, 01:43:54 pm »

How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters?  If anything, I would expect the opposite.

Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
That seems to be the case here, this time. Feingold supporters probably didn't turn out for him in 2010, but are excited to get him back it seems. Outside groups need to write this race off. This seat (and Illinois and New Hampshire as well) is gone.

This is a ridiculous notion. At the end of the day, I don't see any reason why there would be a notable number of Trump/Feingold voters. Trump is going to try to win Wisconsin, and if he wins it, Johnson probably holds on. New Hampshire consistently polls within 1 or 2 percentage points - even if you can't get all the way to a victory, at least make dems think you can and keep them spending precious resources there. And nobody really knows what's going on in Illinois since it almost never gets polled.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2016, 01:52:19 pm »

Feingold's lead is identical to Clinton's, which is unsurprising. Sure, it's hard to imagine a Trump/Feingold voter, but it seems very improbable that there will be many Clinton/Johnson voters. Johnson's been consistently behind Feingold, and it's usually well outside the margin of error. I think I'm ready to call this race Likely D, since I think Wisconsin is Likely D at the presidential level.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2016, 02:19:17 pm »

How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters?  If anything, I would expect the opposite.

Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
That seems to be the case here, this time. Feingold supporters probably didn't turn out for him in 2010, but are excited to get him back it seems. Outside groups need to write this race off. This seat (and Illinois and New Hampshire as well) is gone.

This is a ridiculous notion. At the end of the day, I don't see any reason why there would be a notable number of Trump/Feingold voters. Trump is going to try to win Wisconsin, and if he wins it, Johnson probably holds on. New Hampshire consistently polls within 1 or 2 percentage points - even if you can't get all the way to a victory, at least make dems think you can and keep them spending precious resources there. And nobody really knows what's going on in Illinois since it almost never gets polled.

Sure is a shame then that most polls, including this one, show Trump more than 10 points behind Clinton in Wisconsin.
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2016, 02:25:16 pm »

How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters?  If anything, I would expect the opposite.

Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
That seems to be the case here, this time. Feingold supporters probably didn't turn out for him in 2010, but are excited to get him back it seems. Outside groups need to write this race off. This seat (and Illinois and New Hampshire as well) is gone.

This is a ridiculous notion. At the end of the day, I don't see any reason why there would be a notable number of Trump/Feingold voters. Trump is going to try to win Wisconsin, and if he wins it, Johnson probably holds on. New Hampshire consistently polls within 1 or 2 percentage points - even if you can't get all the way to a victory, at least make dems think you can and keep them spending precious resources there. And nobody really knows what's going on in Illinois since it almost never gets polled.

Sure is a shame then that most polls, including this one, show Trump more than 10 points behind Clinton in Wisconsin.

Right, and Dukakis was supposed to win in a landslide nationwide at this point in 1988. Polls at this point are mostly just noise; few voters are actually paying attention. Yeah, I have WI at Lean D based on the polling and fundamentals, but I won't go any further than that until we get much closer to the election.

I will say it's kind of funny that in 2014, Dems refused to give up on a single incumbent, ever, not even Pryor, while this year the republicans see it as okay to cut some people loose and hope you hold basically everything else.
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2016, 04:23:42 pm »

New Hampshire consistently polls within 1 or 2 percentage points - even if you can't get all the way to a victory, at least make dems think you can and keep them spending precious resources there.

LOL, early NH polls always favor Republicans, but on election day, Democrats usually win in a landslide.
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2016, 04:52:26 pm »

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Marquette Law School on 2016-06-12

Summary: D: 51%, R: 42%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2016, 08:50:36 am »

How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters?  If anything, I would expect the opposite.

Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
That seems to be the case here, this time. Feingold supporters probably didn't turn out for him in 2010, but are excited to get him back it seems. Outside groups need to write this race off. This seat (and Illinois and New Hampshire as well) is gone.
I wouldn't write off Illinois just yet.  And New Hampshire is most certainly NOT gone.  Ayotte is tied with Hassan right now, while Duckworth and Feingold seem to have pretty decent leads.  I'd expect Wisconsin and Illinois to go D this year long before New Hampshire.
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« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2016, 12:50:21 pm »

How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters?  If anything, I would expect the opposite.

Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
That seems to be the case here, this time. Feingold supporters probably didn't turn out for him in 2010, but are excited to get him back it seems. Outside groups need to write this race off. This seat (and Illinois and New Hampshire as well) is gone.
I wouldn't write off Illinois just yet.  And New Hampshire is most certainly NOT gone.  Ayotte is tied with Hassan right now, while Duckworth and Feingold seem to have pretty decent leads.  I'd expect Wisconsin and Illinois to go D this year long before New Hampshire.

I agree, I wouldn't write off Illinois (or Wisconsin) just yet, but I still think they are lean D and we'll likely see a Senator Duckworth and Feingold in November. NH, on the other hand, is a pure tossup, anyone's guess who will win that. Hassan and Ayotte are tied pretty much, and they are both popular. If I had to predict, I say Hassan wins narrowly because I expect Clinton to win the state and NH is slightly more democratic in presidential years, but it really could go either way.
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