How is his lead bigger with likely voters than registered voters? If anything, I would expect the opposite.
Democrats are more excited to vote. 99% you can blame that on Trump.
This is a ridiculous notion. At the end of the day, I don't see any reason why there would be a notable number of Trump/Feingold voters. Trump is going to try to win Wisconsin, and if he wins it, Johnson probably holds on. New Hampshire consistently polls within 1 or 2 percentage points - even if you can't get all the way to a victory, at least make dems think you can and keep them spending precious resources there. And nobody really knows what's going on in Illinois since it almost never gets polled.
Sure is a shame then that most polls, including this one, show Trump more than 10 points behind Clinton in Wisconsin.
Right, and Dukakis was supposed to win in a landslide nationwide at this point in 1988. Polls at this point are mostly just noise; few voters are actually paying attention. Yeah, I have WI at Lean D based on the polling and fundamentals, but I won't go any further than that until we get much closer to the election.
I will say it's kind of funny that in 2014, Dems refused to give up on a single incumbent, ever, not even Pryor, while this year the republicans see it as okay to cut some people loose and hope you hold basically everything else.
