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Author Topic: VA-PPP: Clinton +3 with and without 3rd parties  (Read 2325 times)
dspNY
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« on: June 15, 2016, 08:47:44 pm »

48-45 without third parties
42-39 with third parties (I believe Gary Johnson is at 9%)

This was reported on the Rachel Maddow show and PPP says they will put out the PDF of the full poll tomorrow
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EliteLX
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2016, 08:54:07 pm »

At the state of this race, D+3 VA is actually shocking.

I would for sure expect D+6 in a horse race at absolute best care scenario for Donald right now, wow. As always, there is very very very very little room for Donald Trump to win a majority of cast ballots in this state come November.
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2016, 08:55:52 pm »

Trump would need to run the board in rural Virginia and reduce Clinton's margins in NOVA to even be competitive.
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2016, 08:57:01 pm »

I can't help think that in a lot of places, Trump has started to max out, whereas I think Clinton has room to grow.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 09:04:51 pm by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »Logged


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EliteLX
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2016, 08:58:04 pm »

Trump would need to run the board in rural Virginia and reduce Clinton's margins in NOVA to even be competitive.

Donald J Trump is the worst candidate you could possibly piece together for Northern VA.

Only GOP candidates who could of closely flipped Virginia in 2016 with a reasonable campaign was John, Jeb and Marco Rubio.
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2016, 09:00:24 pm »

I suspect PPP is using poor sample compositions but a lead is a lead.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2016, 09:02:44 pm »

PPP and their reliance on landlines has them GOP leaning this whole cycle. When other polls found a small Trump lead in GA, they called it solid Trump.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2016, 09:20:50 pm »

Hard to believe that just 12 short years ago Bush won Virginia by 8 points. And it never voted for Cointon, even with Perot's help. RIP Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, and likely Georgia will follow soon enough.
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2016, 09:53:22 pm »

Virginia is not a Safe D, at least not yet. Even if Hillary has a slight lead right now, it would be foolish of her to take it for granted, and it would also be foolish of Trump to give up here.
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2016, 10:18:57 pm »

Did they include Stein in the poll with third parties?
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2016, 10:59:54 pm »

Virginia is not a Safe D, at least not yet. Even if Hillary has a slight lead right now, it would be foolish of her to take it for granted, and it would also be foolish of Trump to give up here.

Well, it's on her ad buy list, so no worries.
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2016, 11:13:18 pm »

OK, I really have no idea what the heck is going on in this election now.  Maybe the weirdness is all east vs. west and something like this could actually happen?



Or the WaPo poll was screwy and we are really just seeing 2012 redux with Trump doing a few points worse?
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Joshua
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« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2016, 12:33:39 am »

Did they include Stein in the poll with third parties?

The Greens haven't been able to get on the ballot in Virginia.
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RFayette
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« Reply #13 on: June 16, 2016, 12:46:08 am »

OK, I really have no idea what the heck is going on in this election now.  Maybe the weirdness is all east vs. west and something like this could actually happen?



Or the WaPo poll was screwy and we are really just seeing 2012 redux with Trump doing a few points worse?

Maybe, but the Utah phenomenon has been going on long enough that I'm convinced it's real.  A Clinton win would shock me, but Trump by ≤ 10 wouldn't at this point.  The same is probably true of Texas.  And if Trump is doing that poorly with Mormons while getting <20% of Latinos, it's really hard to see how Clinton doesn't win AZ.  I also think the Trump NE/NYC boost over 2012 is real and could hand him PA and NH in a close race.  As of now, I still think the EC will favor Clinton due to FL and WI, but who knows.

Mormons are an obvious exception, but I still think that unless this election is an absolute blowout, Trump will win Texas and Arizona.  No way is Texas a swing state if New Hampshire goes Republican - I can put that in the bank.  If the WaPo poll is true, then you're right that TX/AZ/AK are swing, but NC, VA, FL would all be solid Dem and we wouldn't even be entertaining NH, PA, or ME.  That poll is enough to frighten the GOP into a coup (if it is accurate) as there is literally nothing to lose.

I really think we have to look more at aggregated averages than singling out individual polls here; otherwise, the results are absolutely screwy.  Again, it could be wrong in either direction, but we should think of these polls as part of a distribution rather than all standing true on their own.  If PPP is right, then this election is basically Romney 2012 with a few shifts.  If WaPo is right, then the GOP will be drinking a whole lot of liquor this November from depression.
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« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2016, 05:11:22 am »

I don't believe that democrats have consolidated behind her  yet, so she has room to grow.

Anyway, this is good news
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« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2016, 10:12:46 am »

Arizona is one of those states where I'd expect Trump to perform relatively well - the whole wall building enterprise should appeal to white voters there. I think McCain's reluctance to attack Trump is also very strongly indicative of this being the case.
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2016, 10:16:42 am »

I don't believe that democrats have consolidated behind her  yet, so she has room to grow.

Anyway, this is good news

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/743449589768925188
If Clinton could win just half of the current Sanders holdouts in Virginia, her lead would go from 3 points up to 9
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2016, 10:21:17 am »

I don't believe that democrats have consolidated behind her  yet, so she has room to grow.

Anyway, this is good news

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/743449589768925188
If Clinton could win just half of the current Sanders holdouts in Virginia, her lead would go from 3 points up to 9

You know that there are many holdouts on the Republican side too. If you give Hillary some of the Sanders' holdouts and give Trump some of the NeverTrump holdouts, then the margin likely remains 3-6 points.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2016, 10:22:46 am »

Wow... wtf?! Looks like Trump's weaknesses in VA are exaggerated (especially on this forum, lol).
PPP is oddly showing some of the most pro-Trump results out there. If they did a national poll it'd probably be only +2 Clinton. D+3 in VA is consistent with D+1 in PA, R+1 in FL, and D+3 in IA.
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mencken
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2016, 11:16:47 am »

Wow... wtf?! Looks like Trump's weaknesses in VA are exaggerated (especially on this forum, lol).
PPP is oddly showing some of the most pro-Trump results out there. If they did a national poll it'd probably be only +2 Clinton. D+3 in VA is consistent with D+1 in PA, R+1 in FL, and D+3 in IA.

Kind of like how they showed Todd Akin neck and neck with Claire McCaskill up until the deadline to replace him?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2016, 11:33:06 am »

Wow... wtf?! Looks like Trump's weaknesses in VA are exaggerated (especially on this forum, lol).
PPP is oddly showing some of the most pro-Trump results out there. If they did a national poll it'd probably be only +2 Clinton. D+3 in VA is consistent with D+1 in PA, R+1 in FL, and D+3 in IA.
That's because the state of the race is probably roughly Clinton +3-5 at this point in time. I do not think any of these results, PA, IA, VA, FL, etc. are out of whack of where the race realistically is.

All of those states (with the exception of PA) are traditional swing states, with PA being a Tier 1 D state.

Take the Obama 2012 map and basically extrapolate a point or two pro-R shift, you'd get many of these results within the standard MOE. Plus, all of this polling is premature at this point with five months left and both bases not completely consolidated ahead of the conventions. The data is best used for trends right now than anything really substantive.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 11:35:48 am by Seriously? »Logged
heatcharger
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2016, 12:05:10 pm »

PPP and their reliance on landlines has them GOP leaning this whole cycle. When other polls found a small Trump lead in GA, they called it solid Trump.

They also had Florida as Trump +1 when all the other polls were about Clinton +3. Anyways I don't believe Virginia is this close, and if it is, Trump has hit his ceiling here. No way he'll pick up enough undecideds in a state where he has an unfavorable of 60% according to this poll, which honestly sounds a little low.
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2016, 12:21:30 pm »

Trump will be demolished in NoVa, but he will do well in rural areas, especially SW VA.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2016, 04:29:57 pm »

Quote
Finally we tested a variety of running mates for Hillary Clinton...and found just how little running mates matter. In a hypothetical scenario where Elizabeth Warren is Clinton's running mate, she leads Trump 47/43. In a hypothetical scenario where Tim Kaine is Clinton's running mate, she leads Trump 47/43.  And in a hypothetical scenario where Mark Warner is Clinton's running mate, she leads Trump...wait for it...47/43. The only slight deviation comes when we look at Jim Webb as a possible Trump running mate- in that hypothetical Clinton's lead over Trump expands to 6 points at 47/41, as voters evidently aren't big on the concept of him on the ticket.

LOL. Looks like Webb really did a number on his reputation. Sad! If only he wasn't so salty...
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« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2016, 04:43:30 am »

Junk poll! VA will be to the left of WI in this election and ones going forward (barring Kasich-Sanders match-up equivalents).
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